Poll by Challenger Supports Prospect of November Runoff

In the first indication that Los Angeles County Sheriff Sherman Block could face a runoff election in November, a recent poll of voters found that 36% of those surveyed plan to support Block in his bid for a fifth term this June, while 45% said they would vote for someone else.

If no one wins a majority of the votes in the primary, the top two vote-getters will face off in the fall.

According to the survey, commissioned by one of Block’s challengers, 58% of the 600 people surveyed felt that the 73-year-old sheriff--who has suffered two bouts of cancer and undergoes hemodialysis three times a week--is too sick to run the department for another four years.

“I think the sheriff is very vulnerable,” said John Fairbank, who conducted the poll on behalf of Sheriff’s Chief Lee Baca, one of three candidates running against Block. “There is clearly a strong ‘anybody but Sherman Block’ vote. The question is, will the voters hear enough about the other candidates to vote for them as an alternative?”

Fairbank said that if Block’s challengers “do get enough money to get the message out there, then clearly the numbers are set up for a runoff.”

Block’s campaign officials downplayed the poll results, however.

“The survey is a snapshot,” said Harvey Englander, Block’s campaign consultant. “You have to look at the entire campaign program. You have to have the resources to communicate your message.”

He noted that Block has raised over $400,000, far overshadowing his competitors. “We have $160,000 cash-on-hand,” he said. “That’s equal to what everyone else has raised.”

In addition, Englander said Block conducted his own poll recently and has found that he has “extremely high name recognition and a strong basis for support for reelection.”

Englander, however, declined to release the results of the sheriff’s survey. “Let’s put it this way,” he said. “I have a big smile on my face every time I read it.”

Nevertheless, Fairbank--a respected pollster who works for the firm of Fairbank, Maslin and Maullin--questioned why Block’s consultants would keep their survey results secret.

“It probably shows many of the same vulnerabilities that our poll shows,” he said.

Fairbank--who conducted his poll about a week ago--said he was surprised to find that so many of the voters were aware of Block’s health problems.

“Over 40% [of the respondents] knew that he was suffering from poor health,” he said. “Only 33% believed he was well enough to serve another term.”

The voters also indicated that they would be less likely to vote for Block because of a variety of management problems and scandals in the department, including allegations of wasteful spending.

Despite the sheriff’s woes, the poll shows that Block is generally well-known--and well-liked--by voters. Only 9% of those surveyed said they had never heard of Block. Thirty-eight percent said they had a favorable impression of the sheriff.

Meanwhile, 48% of the voters surveyed said they had never heard of Baca. Even so, 11% of those who participated in the poll said they would vote for him. Five percent said they would vote for challenger Bill Baker, who retired as a chief in the Sheriff’s Department in 1995. Four percent said they would vote for Patrick Gomez, who works as a sergeant in the sheriff’s Temple station.

After voters were told a variety of positive things about both the sheriff and Baca--who oversees six sheriff’s stations and a countywide anti-gang program--26% said they would vote for Block, while 32% said they would vote for Baca. Five percent indicated they would support Baker and 6% said they would support Gomez.

When asked how they would vote in a race between Block and Baca, 27% said they would support the sheriff while 43% said they would vote for Baca, according to the survey.

The other two challengers had their own conclusions concerning Baca’s survey.

“The key here is there is a high percentage of voters who reject the incumbent,” Baker said. “I’ve been in this race for three months and already I’m on the radar screen. I anticipate considerable changes in those figures.”

Said Gomez: “The impression I get is this is the first time the public has taken an interest in the sheriff’s campaign. They don’t want ‘business as usual.’ ”