Open Primary Makes Republican the One to Watch

Want to get a fix on the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? Watch the Republican--Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren.

California’s new running track is such that the Democratic winner may well be determined by how fleet-footed the Republican is.

That’s the nature of the new open primary--open to all voters, regardless of party, with one “blanket” ballot that lists every candidate. A voter of one party can vote for a candidate of another. So a candidate must run as if it were a general election.

The current dynamic is this: Among the three Democratic contenders, megabucks businessman Al Checchi is the chief competitor for Republican votes. But Lungren, who has no serious competition for the Republican nomination, now is running full steam for GOP votes, trying to lock them up early for November.

Every Republican vote that Lungren gets on June 2 is one less potential vote for Checchi, who sorely needs any he can muster. Checchi’s base is in the center, among swing voters of both parties (and with Latinos).

Conversely, Lt. Gov. Gray Davis and Rep. Jane Harman are the chief competitors for hard-core Democrats. Initially, these voters tended to side with Davis. Then they moved to Harman when she entered the race. Now they’ve flipped back to Davis, according to the latest Field poll. This shift has propelled Davis into a slight lead over Checchi and dropped Harman to third place among Democrats.

Lungren runs ahead of everybody. (Lungren 27%, Davis 19%, Checchi 17%, Harman 11%.)

Two weeks ago, Lungren and Davis made strategic decisions that have paid off: They began airing TV ads.

Now, Lungren’s share of the GOP vote has increased from 47% to 54%. Checchi’s has been frozen at 11%, the same as the other two Democrats combined. One-fourth of Republicans still are undecided.

Checchi’s own polling provides proof that the better Lungren runs, the worse off Checchi is: If Lungren voters were not supporting him, they tell pollsters, they’d likely be backing Checchi.

“The race boils down to a couple of simple elements,” says Kam Kuwata, Harman’s campaign manager. “Can Harman get women? [Not so far.] Can Lungren get so many Republicans that it hurts Checchi?”

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There’s hardly anything Lungren would love more than to hurt Checchi. Checchi gets under Lungren’s skin.

At first, it was the fact that here was a guy who never had paid any dues--never run for anything, often not even voted--but was distorting the election process by spending unlimited millions of his own immense fortune. He could outspend an opponent 4 to 1 and not even blink.

But Checchi especially has riled Lungren--and the two Democrats, as well--by attacking his opponents after repeatedly promising not to. “I’ll take my chances on a positive message,” Checchi had said. “I would rather lose than prostitute myself.” Then in late March he went negative.

Checchi ran negative TV ads against Harman and severely wounded her. But he hurt himself, too. The Field poll found dramatic rises in unfavorable opinions of both Harman and Checchi. Now, Checchi has begun running attack ads against Davis. Unlike Harman, however, Davis has countered with ads attacking Checchi.

Lungren scoffs at Checchi’s denial that his ads are negative, his contention that they’re merely “comparative.” He’s “just a political hack with a lot of money,” Lungren asserts.

“He said one thing [he’d stay positive] and did another. Just because you have a lot of money doesn’t change that. You know, there was always somebody in school who thought he could get away with something because he had more money. And most of the kids saw through it pretty quickly.”

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So far, Lungren has escaped Checchi’s TV ads. But Checchi did mail Republicans an absentee ballot application charging that the AG is “too extreme”--on abortion, the environment--and is a tool of “the religious right.”

Lungren, like Checchi, is Catholic. Unlike Checchi, Lungren opposes abortion rights. Moreover, Lungren has raised eyebrows by promoting “religious values.”

“I’m not here to impose my Catholic tenets on anybody,” Lungren insists. “What I’ve said is there’s a common set of values that are most eloquently expressed in the great religious traditions. . . .

“Maybe you can explain to me why I frighten people as a mainstream Catholic and why Al Checchi can get away with calling me an extremist. Because the last time I looked, mainstream Catholicism is not considered right-wing or extreme. Am I a little sensitive about that?”

Yes he is. And he’s very sensitive about Checchi. He should be. Checchi needs Lungren’s votes.