Campaign Expenses Soar for First ‘Blanket’ Primary

Picture this: You are campaigning for the Legislature, racing full blast into the uncharted final three weeks of California’s first “blanket” primary election.

To win your party’s nomination, you must appeal not only to your natural voters, but to those of up to seven opposing parties and independents as well. The pool of potential voters may double. And so may campaign expenses.

“As a candidate, you feel like a lab rat or guinea pig,” said Democrat Richard Katz, a former assemblyman and seasoned campaigner who is running for a state Senate seat in the San Fernando Valley.

“There are all these variables and theories about how the primary is supposed to function, but none of it is based on anything other than people’s best guesses,” Katz said.

His contention is echoed by state Sen. Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga, a Republican campaign strategist. “We have no history to track and really no basis on which to draw any conclusions yet,” Brulte said.

Much is at stake. All 80 Assembly seats are up for a vote, as are half of the Senate’s 40 seats. Statewide, voters will confront a ballot--the longest in California history--that includes the names of 326 Assembly candidates and 66 Senate contenders.

The successful nominees will go on to compete in the Nov. 3 general election, which will determine whether Democrats retain control of the Assembly and Senate or the GOP seizes them back. The majority controls much of the public policy agenda as well as the inner workings of each house.

Until this year, legislative primaries were fairly predictable, with the parties choosing their own candidates without interference from the outside. Incumbents and candidates in safe seats campaigned modestly, saving their money and energy for November.

But the new primary, which is open to all registered voters regardless of party affiliation--has upset that pattern. Candidates have come to recognize that they must reach out to all sides to some degree--not only to win the primary but also to stake out early ground for the fall runoff.

“Essentially, you are running two general election campaigns, one in June and, hopefully, one in November,” Katz said.

This is certain to escalate the already high costs of campaigning as candidates try to appeal to a broader range of primary voters, mostly through the mail, campaign experts said.

Assembly Republican Leader Bill Leonard of San Bernardino said GOP candidates for the lower house must consider “literally doubling their budgets to appeal to non-Republicans,” who will be free to vote for candidates of any party June 2.

“If you can convince someone to vote for you in the primary,” Leonard said, “they will stick with you in November.”

Democratic political consultant Larry Sheingold agrees--to an extent.

He said getting a large number of votes in the primary puts a nominee in a better fund-raising position for November. But Sheingold discounts the notion that Democrats who cross over to Republicans in June will not return to the Democratic fold in November.

In November, Democrats will start posing “hot button” questions such as, “Do you want [Republican Dan] Lungren at the helm as governor?” Sheingold said.

Campaign experts say that individual candidates must decide whether it is cost-effective to spend precious funds trying to reach voters outside their own party, which can double the prospective voter pool, or concentrate on party loyalists.

“As a generalization, I think most campaigns are going to spend their money talking to their own party members,” said Brulte, who is helping map out GOP campaigns for the state Senate. “You have to have a significant amount of support in your party in order to be successful in a [blanket] primary.”

For at least one legislative candidate, Democrat Robert Pinzler, a Redondo Beach city councilman, the new primary appears made to order, said his campaign advisor, Eric Jaye.

Pinzler is one of seven Democrats and a Republican running for the highly contested seat being vacated by Assemblywoman Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey).

Pinzler’s conservationist credentials in the environmentally sensitive coastal district and his campaign to rein in expansion of Los Angeles International Airport will attract votes from across party lines, Jaye contends.

“Of course, you’re going to have some additional costs,” he said, “but there are additional benefits, too.”

While fresh faces are fighting for a spot in the legislative Class of ‘98, the graduates are reluctantly moving on as term limits are fully felt in the Capitol.

Enacted by voters in 1990, term limits forced out the last of the Assembly veterans in 1996. Now it is the Senate’s turn as longtime incumbents must vacate 11 seats, eight of them occupied by Democrats.

Departing Democrats include Ralph C. Dills of El Segundo, first elected to the Legislature in 1938; Diane Watson of Los Angeles, the state Senate’s first African American woman, and Ruben S. Ayala of Chino, the first modern-day Latino senator.

At this point, none of the Legislature’s partisan leaders is forecasting heavy wins or losses for either side in the 1998 elections.

Strategists for Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles and Senate Leader John L. Burton of San Francisco said Democrats hope to keep their majorities and perhaps capture one or two extra seats.

The GOP believes it can reduce the Democratic majority, and maybe even gain control of the Assembly.

Leonard, the Assembly minority leader, said he will need all of the $5 million to $6 million he hopes to raise just to finance the handful of campaigns that will give the GOP the best chance of retaking the Assembly in the fall.

Meanwhile, Brulte, the Senate GOP caucus chairman, said Republicans hope to protect their 16 seats in the upper chamber and gain two or three Democratic seats.

Regardless of the outcome, Burton, Brulte and other legislators believe that the sheer length of the June ballot and the extra time it will take to vote will be a flop with Californians, who enacted the blanket primary two years ago.

Burton said he has prepared a constitutional amendment to restore the old primary system and will pursue it after June 2, if the public supports it.

“I think they’re going to be so [angry],” Burton said. “They didn’t think they’d have to work through the Peace and Freedom and Natural Law and all the other candidates and parties.”

But Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Stanford), a sponsor of the 1996 initiative that created the blanket primary, cautioned against reaching such conclusions before the election is even held.

“Surely, it would be wiser to wait and see how it goes,” Campbell said. “It will empower a high percentage of [independent] voters who were kept out of the nominating process. As a result, some of the safe seats in the Legislature may no longer be so safe.”