Setting Schedules: Risky Business

As NBC executives sat down to screen more than two dozen new programs vying for slots on its prime-time schedule, they started by watching the pilot for a show that’s already on the air--the 1989 prototype for “Seinfeld.”

By doing so, NBC West Coast President Don Ohlmeyer wanted to remind his staff of the difference between a pilot and a successful series--a crucial distinction as networks begin the high-stakes chess game of revising their lineups for the fall, with the future of programs (and often careers) hanging in the balance.

The screening of new series candidates occurs over the next 10 days, in advance of annual programming presentations to advertisers, setting off negotiations to sell billions of dollars in commercial time.

Top-rated NBC--which last year amassed a record $2.15 billion in what’s known as “upfront” sales, far more than its nearest competitor--will again set the tone, officially unveiling its first “Seinfeld”-less roster since 1991 on May 18. ABC, WB, CBS, UPN and Fox will follow in rapid succession that week.

How NBC fills the void left by “Seinfeld” will be closely monitored by the other networks and will likely influence how they configure their schedules. Should “Frasier” move from Tuesdays to Thursdays to replace “Seinfeld,” for example, ABC might try to exploit any perceived weakness by moving one of its popular Wednesday shows--”Spin City,” “Dharma & Greg” or even “The Drew Carey Show”--to Tuesdays.

“NBC’s schedule will be dictated in large part by what they do Thursday, which will dictate what Fox and ABC do in reaction,” said one veteran TV executive.

Fortunately for NBC, both ABC and CBS have enough deficiencies elsewhere that neither is in a position to make an aggressive push into new territory, as they instead focus on addressing their own problem areas.

Fox, on the other hand, could mount a challenge to NBC on Thursdays by relocating the animated Sunday night hit “King of the Hill” there--a strategy that might become more attractive to Fox if “Friends” shifts from 8 p.m. into the 9 p.m. “Seinfeld” slot, leaving a less-proven show to open the night.

All the networks have serious needs in different areas, but each must balance them against the risk associated with making lineup changes when viewers now have dozens of options that extend well beyond just the major networks.

The price networks have paid with past scheduling misfires would seem to dictate proceeding cautiously in making changes.

Just two years ago, for example, CBS consistently won the Monday ratings race with a lineup anchored by three Top 20 shows: “Murphy Brown,” “The Nanny” and “Chicago Hope.”

This season, the first series is limping toward its end while the last two are pulling in lower ratings running Wednesday nights. Moreover, the network now frequently finishes fourth from 9 to 10 p.m. Mondays, and has watched 40% of its audience disappear at 10 p.m. by pinning its hopes on the new drama “Brooklyn South.”

Similar tales of woe could be written about ABC on Tuesday and, to a lesser degree, Fox’s Thursday lineup after the network canceled “Martin” and benched “Living Single” and “New York Undercover.”

NBC also has seen the bottom drop out on its ratings in spots by shuffling programs around. The network even finished behind the WB and UPN networks one Wednesday night this season with the misnamed new comedy “Built to Last,” which NBC yanked after just three telecasts.

Making such changes, network executives often face an unappetizing choice: stick with what they have and keep enduring record-low ratings, or try to improve their lot and risk watching bad quickly become worse.

NBC officials say they won’t make final decisions on their lineup--including the “Seinfeld” replacement--until executives have viewed all the new series in development.

ABC, meanwhile, won’t set its schedule until it’s clear what NBC is doing. That means the network will likely have to notify producers of new programs that their show has made the cut without initially telling them the night or time slot in which the show will air. Networks usually need two days’ notice to arrange getting their stars to New York to help schmooze advertisers.

Though some executives think there is value in announcing last to evaluate the competition (the order is rather arbitrarily dictated by when the networks book space for their presentations), NBC’s Ohlmeyer disagreed.

“You can sit there and counter-program till the cows come home. The fact of the matter is, we want to put on the best schedule we can put on,” he said. “The other reality is, if we see something we really don’t like, we have until September to change it.”

ABC did just that four years ago, revising its lineup after NBC made the surprise move of putting “Frasier” opposite “Roseanne” on Tuesday nights. Fearing their show was vulnerable, ABC flip-flopped “Roseanne” and “Home Improvement”--a decision producers of the latter show still resent: Ratings for the Tim Allen comedy, once television’s No. 1 show, have declined markedly against that competition.

The schedule-setting process can be especially nerve-racking for producers and studios waiting to see which existing shows will survive.

“It’s life in limbo,” said John Watson, one of the producers of “The Magnificent Seven,” a midseason CBS series that remains “on the fence” in terms of a second season.

The public has also grown more sophisticated about the process, with fans of that western revival pooling their money to buy a $1,000 ad in the trade paper Daily Variety, urging CBS to renew the show. Taking no chances, organizers even hired a courier to deliver the ad directly to key CBS executives.

“These are all complete strangers from all over the place,” said Patti Kleckner, a marketing representative from Wheaton, Ill., who helped to organize the “Magnificent Seven” campaign, supported by contributions of $5 or $10 each. “I thought, ‘Why am I just sitting back and waiting for CBS to make this decision?’ ”

Even the ABC series “Prey,” pummeled by NBC’s “Must-See TV” comedies to a No. 122 season-to-date ranking for its brief Thursday night run, has a group trying to save it, under the banner “Prey for Us.”

Although such grass-roots campaigns seldom wield much influence (millions of people have to watch a series for it to be successful, not just a few thousand), “Magnificent Seven” producer Watson said he will use whatever ammunition he can find in pleading his case for renewal to the network.

“I certainly intend to mention it,” he said. “What kind of effect it will have on the cynical souls who make these decisions, I don’t know. . . . They’re weighing all kinds of data. Who knows what’s going to push [a show] over the top?”

Focus group research clearly plays a significant role as well, though network executives insist that it is merely one of the factors they consider. Some studio executives would argue that point, noting that pilots deemed red-hot by the network have been known to cool dramatically if the test results come back negative.

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Coming Back

The following TV series are renewed for next season. Several others remain candidates to return, with decisions to be made by May 21:

ABC

“America’s Funniest Home Videos”

“Boy Meets World”

“Dharma & Greg”

“The Drew Carey Show”

“Home Improvement”

“Monday Night Football”

“NYPD Blue”

“The Practice”

“PrimeTime Live”

“Sabrina the Teenage Witch”

“Spin City”

“20/20”

“Wonderful World of Disney”

CBS

“CBS Sunday Movie”

“Candid Camera”

“Chicago Hope”

“Cosby”

“Everybody Loves Raymond”

“48 Hours”

“JAG”

“Kids Say the Darndest Things”

“Nash Bridges”

“60 Minutes”

“Touched by an Angel”

“Walker, Texas Ranger”

NBC

“Caroline in the City”

“Dateline NBC”

“ER”

“Frasier”

“Friends”

“Homicide: Life on the Street”

“Just Shoot Me”

“Law & Order”

“Mad About You”

“The Pretender”

“Profiler”

“Suddenly Susan”

“3rd Rock From the Sun”

“Veronica’s Closet”

“Working”

Fox

“Ally McBeal”

“Beverly Hills, 90210”

“Cops”

“King of the Hill”

“Melrose Place”

“Party of Five”

“The Simpsons”

“The X-Files”

WB

“Buffy the Vampire Slayer”

“Dawson’s Creek”

“7th Heaven”

“Sister, Sister”

UPN

“Malcolm & Eddie”

“Moesha”

“Star Trek: Voyager”