Final ‘Seinfeld’: How Huge Will the Ratings Be?

Twenty years ago, “Seinfeld’s” current rating would have ranked No. 24 in the prime-time standings, right behind “Barnaby Jones” and “Hawaii Five-O.”

That was then, and this is now: “Seinfeld” leaves the stage tonight as television’s most-watched program, becoming one of the most analyzed show business exits since Rhett Butler sneered, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.”

Viewers can decide for themselves whether the show itself lives up to the hype, but there’s already a consensus that the ratings will be big, the only uncertainty stemming from just how masterful “Seinfeld” will be in that domain.

For NBC, the finale represents a sort-of bonus Super Bowl in May. The network has projected that at least 75 million people will view the last episode, more than double the show’s average for a regular week. NBC is reportedly garnering roughly $1.6 million for each 30-second commercial, eclipsing the record established by this year’s Super Bowl game.

The astounding volume of media coverage regarding the program’s finish has fueled the assumption that even casual viewers will feel inspired (or perhaps more accurately, compelled) to pay attention--just as people who don’t care about football get drawn into watching the Super Bowl, and Lottery sales soar in reaction to reports that a big jackpot is building.

“There are people for whom the final episode will be the first episode they ever see,” predicted NBC West Coast President Don Ohlmeyer.

“Seinfeld” will likely join two other prominent farewell episodes--the last “Cheers” in 1993 and “MASH” a decade earlier--among the most-seen programs of all time, a list otherwise dominated by Super Bowl games. (Two nights of the 1994 Winter Olympics also approached those levels, as ratings soared because of the Nancy Kerrigan-Tonya Harding skating competition.)

“Seinfeld’s” actual rating--that is, the percentage of all homes that tune in--is unlikely to match other historic fare due to the sheer volume of options now available. “MASH” remains the record-holder, reaching more than 60% of all homes with its final episode. The “Who Shot J.R.?” episode of “Dallas” and the concluding two hours of “Roots” follow, each having amassed 50-plus ratings.

The overall audience for “Seinfeld” likely will surpass many older programs, however, because the population has grown. When “Roots” aired in 1977, for example, there were just over 71 million homes with television sets in the United States, compared to 98 million homes (and 254 million people) with television today, according to Nielsen Media Research.

Despite the barrage of publicity that has surrounded the show since Jerry Seinfeld announced his departure plans, “Seinfeld’s” audience has remained remarkably consistent throughout the season.

Ratings did surge last Thursday, helped by a tune-in for the “Friends” season-ending cliffhanger. “Seinfeld” attracted almost 39 million people, the comedy’s biggest audience in its nine-year run.

Although “Seinfeld’s” conclusion has most frequently been compared to the “Cheers” finale, the history of the two shows has differed in several ways.

In its 11-year run, “Cheers” gradually built to ratings levels higher than “Seinfeld” ever achieved as part of a Thursday lineup that included “The Cosby Show.” Ratings for the program ebbed, and many people who had drifted away came back to see how the show would finish.

By contrast, “Seinfeld” didn’t crack the Top 20 until NBC moved the show behind “Cheers” in 1993. Since the show became a “Must-See TV” fixture on Thursday, its audience has been remarkably consistent, averaging more than 30 million viewers each of the past four years.

Still, network research notes that even self-described fans of a particular program watch less than half the episodes each season, suggesting a vast pool of periodic “Seinfeld” viewers who will likely come together tonight.

The big audience anticipated for the finale should widen “Seinfeld’s” narrow margin over “ER” this season. The show will thus sign off as prime time’s No. 1 series, joining an elite club that includes “I Love Lucy” and “The Andy Griffith Show.”

While NBC would much rather have “Seinfeld” remain in its corner next year, tonight’s festivities--which also include a 45-minute clip show of “Seinfeld” highlights and the season’s last original “ER”--will provide the network a financial windfall to at least temporarily deaden the pain.

Those results also promise to boost NBC’s average for the current ratings sweeps, including late night, since “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno” will feature Seinfeld as a guest. The “Cheers” farewell provided the impetus behind the show’s previous high during Leno’s six-year tenure as host.

The sweeps don’t officially wrap up until Wednesday, but any suspense as to who will win the four-week survey ended weeks ago, when NBC conjured up massive numbers with the miniseries “Merlin.”

The only questions lingering are the scope of NBC’s margin of victory for sweeps, and whether Fox can add to the indignities ABC has endured by beating the network for the season among adults 18 to 49, the primary age group sought by advertisers. Fox currently holds a slim lead over ABC for second place, behind NBC, by that standard.

It’s worth noting that whatever figures are reported for the last “Seinfeld” will be estimates, given the number of people who will watch the episode at viewing parties, either in private homes or public venues.

Nielsen bases its findings on data from “people meters” installed in thousands of homes, but the rating devices can’t regularly measure viewing that occurs outside those households.

Nielsen’s latest study of out-of-home viewing noted that nearly 26 million adults watch television outside the home weekly in offices, hotels, college dorms and restaurants or bars. As their share of audience has dwindled, the networks have become more aggressive about seeking to convince media buyers to consider those viewers while negotiating ad rates.

NBC, in fact, now regularly points out in press releases that Nielsen figures are based on “measurable in-home viewing statistics,” underscoring the network’s contention that a portion of television viewing goes unrecorded by the existing system.

*

* The final “Seinfeld” episode airs at 8:45 tonight, preceded by highlights from previous installments, beginning at 8 p.m. on NBC (Channel 4).

Biggest Audience *

Shows that have drawn the biggest one-night audiences.

*--*

Program Year Total Viewers (in Millions) 1. “MASH” Finale 1983 106.0 9. “Dallas--Who Shot J. R.?” 1980 83.6 12. “Cheers” Finale 1993 80.5

*--*

*List includes only entertainment programming. Filling out this list are various Super Bowls.

Biggest Rating ** (Percentage of All Homes)

*--*

Program Year Rating*** Homes (in Millions) 1. “MASH” Finale 1983 60.2 50.2 2. “Dallas--Who Shot J. R.?” 1980 53.3 41.5 3. “Roots,” Part 8 1977 51.1 36.4 8. “Gone With the Wind,” Part 1 1976 47.7 34.0 9. “Gone With the Wind,” Part 2 1976 47.4 33.8 12.”Bob Hope Christmas Show” 1970 46.6 27.3

*--*

**Filling out the list are various Super Bowls and the 1994 Winter Olympics.

***The rating is a percentage of homes with television each year, a number that has risen steadily as the population increases.

Source: NBC, Nielsen Media Research