Fong and Issa Tied in Race for U.S. Senate

Despite a huge disparity in campaign spending, Matt Fong and Darrell Issa are deadlocked in their fight for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, with a considerable chunk of likely GOP voters undecided, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Less than two weeks before the June 2 primary, businessman Issa was statistically tied with state Treasurer Fong among likely voters, 22% to 20%. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer had 40% support, with 18% undecided.

Among likely Republican voters, Issa had 33% support from party faithful to Fong’s 27%, with 28% undecided. Boxer had 12% support among Republicans, who will be able to vote for a Democrat under the state’s new blanket primary system.

Among likely Democratic voters, Fong drew 14% and Issa 10%.

The poll was taken last week.

“It’s up for grabs,” Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus said of the Republican Senate nomination. “There is still a large ‘don’t know’ out there, showing that people really aren’t all that familiar with either of the two main Republican candidates.”

Prospective fall matchups between Boxer and her two GOP rivals suggest a tough reelection fight for the incumbent, who has been a leading target of Republicans since her election in 1992 with less than 50% of the vote.

Boxer bested both Fong and Issa in trial heats. But the senator failed to break 50% against Fong, leading 49% to 36%, and just managed 50% against Issa, who received 35%.

“It’s not going to be an easy campaign for her in the fall,” Pinkus said. “Come June 3”--the day after the primary--”Boxer will have her work cut out for her.”

The Times interviewed 1,097 registered voters in California from May 16-20, including 506 voters considered likely to cast ballots. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction; the margin for likely voters is 5 points in either direction.

The closeness of the Republican primary fight defies Issa’s huge spending advantage. The Vista millionaire built a fortune in the electronics industry and has spent more than $8 million on the Senate race so far--most of it his own money. He began advertising on radio last summer and started broadcasting TV commercials in January.

Fong, in contrast, has spent about $2.7 million and began his TV advertising a little over a week ago.

Thus, it is somewhat surprising that Fong was actually slightly better known to voters than Issa, according to the survey. Fong also had a slightly more positive image than Issa.

Forty percent of likely voters had a favorable image of Fong and 13% an unfavorable image, with 47% having no opinion. Thirty percent had a favorable image of Issa and 17% an unfavorable image, with 53% having no opinion.

“Issa’s put on a lot of commercials, but he hasn’t really defined what he stands for in most voters’ minds,” Pinkus said. “Whereas Fong has been active in the party for some time.”

Issa’s prolific spending seems to have neither helped nor hurt his candidacy to any significant degree. Twenty-one percent of likely voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who spends millions of his or her own money to seek office. Twenty-seven percent said it made them less likely, and 41% said it made no difference.

Further underscoring the fluid nature of the Republican contest, neither Fong nor Issa had a particularly solid base of support, which could heighten the importance of the lone debate of the Senate contest, a forum scheduled Thursday in San Jose. Of the two, Fong supporters were the more committed.

Forty percent of Fong’s backers said they had definitely made up their minds to vote for him on June 2. Twenty-six percent said they would probably support Fong, and 33% said they would consider switching to another candidate.

Only 26% of Issa supporters said they would definitely vote for him. Thirty-seven percent said they would probably support Issa, and 36% said they would consider switching to another candidate.

Boxer had the most solid support, as could be expected. Sixty-nine percent of the senator’s backers said they would definitely vote for her on June 2. Eighteen percent said they would probably support Boxer, and only 13% would consider switching to another candidate in the primary.

But the poll also pointed up Boxer’s potential vulnerability come the fall campaign. She received barely passing marks on her job rating, with 44% of likely voters approving and 38% disapproving. In April, 47% of likely voters approved of Boxer’s job performance and 39% disapproved.

The drop-off in Boxer’s favorability rating may reflect the toll taken by the relentless GOP campaign against her, which Boxer has yet to counter with paid advertising.

Voters’ overall impression of Boxer was hardly more flattering. Forty-seven percent of likely voters viewed her favorably in the latest survey, while 43% viewed her unfavorably.

“These aren’t great numbers,” Pinkus said.

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Tight Race Shaping Up

With less than two weeks until the primary, the Republican race for U.S. Senate is a tossup between businessman Darrell Issa and state Treasurer Matt Fong. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer leads both GOP candidates in prospective trial heats. But signs point to a close race in the fall, regardless of who gets the Republican nod.

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What is your impression of: (Among Likely Voters)

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Boxer Fong Issa Favorable 47% 40% 30% Unfavorable 43% 13% 17% Don’t know 10% 47% 53%

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For whom would you vote if the November general election were held today and the candidate were: (Among Registered Voters)

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Now 4/98 Boxer 49% 50% Fong 36% 35% Someone else 1% 1 Don’t know 14% 14%

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For whom would you vote if the June primary were held today and the candidates were: (Among Likely Voters)

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Now 4/98 Boxer 40% 42% Issa 22% 20% Fong 20% 12% Riggs * 12% Don’t know 18% 19%

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* Congressman Frank Riggs withdrew from the race

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Pol contacted 1,514 California adults, including 1,097 registered voters and 506 likely voters, by telephone May 16 through 20. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 5 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Times Poll results are also available on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/.

Source: L.A. Times polls