Where Will Orange County Land in 2020?

By SHELBY GRAD and JEFF GOTTLIEB

May 26, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITERS

It’s a week before Christmas 2020, and Orange County International Airport is bustling with travelers.

A group of weary Japanese business executives files off a Boeing 767 flight from Tokyo. They grab their luggage before boarding a people mover to their hotel, minutes from the airport. In the morning, they’ll gather at nearby corporate offices for a business meeting.

At the far end of the terminal, a disappointed family discovers that its flight to Milwaukee has been delayed. With a few hours to kill, they order pasta at the patio trattoria. If the flight is delayed further, they may hunt for Christmas gifts at the airport’s shopping arcade, although they’ve already bought plenty at Disneyland.

A few miles to the east of the airport in Foothill Ranch, Christmas carolers at Alton Park raise their voices until the jet roar subsides. To the south, at Laguna Hills Golf Course, golfing partners must bellow their congratulations on each other’s excellent drives to be heard over the engine noise.

This is what life could be like if the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station becomes a $1.4-billion airport.

Many herald the airport as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to open trade opportunities with the Pacific Rim and Latin America, to allow county residents to catch international flights without driving through miles of congestion to LAX and, more symbolically, to allow Orange County to fully emerge on its own terms and out of the shadow of Los Angeles.

Yet El Toro has a darker side: the picture of hundreds of jets roaring over cities from Laguna Niguel to Foothill Ranch each day, creating more pollution and, according to some opponents, leaving neighborhoods around the airport in a shambles.

Major Changes Would Be a Given

The debate over an airport probably will continue well after the Board of Supervisors takes a final vote on the project in 1999. Still, interviews with aviation experts, airport planners, community activists, federal regulators and others make these facts clear about El Toro:

* An airport would be a major factor in Orange County’s dreams for economic growth in the 21st century. In other cities, including Dallas and Washington, D.C., new airports have brought commercial development, especially high-tech and light-industrial businesses.

* El Toro would become the airport of the future, incorporating the sleek new look of a shopping mall with a complement of upscale restaurants, shops and attractions. The terminal would be connected to corporate offices and hotels, limiting the need for vehicular transportation.

* Thousands of residents who live near the airport would contend with jet noise--day and night. The noise levels aren’t projected to exceed federal and state standards. Still, in some places, outdoor noise levels would strain conversations and force residents to keep their doors and windows closed most of the day.

* The county can expect residents who live near El Toro to complain about noise and pollution for decades after the airport is built. In other cities, homeowners are battling airports built in the 1960s. Their concerns? The direction of flight patterns and whether their properties should receive sound insulation.

* No one is sure how the airport would affect home prices. Residential property values adjacent to some new airports have declined; others have remained steady or risen.

* The project would generate an additional 276,000 daily trips to and from the airport in an area already beset by daily traffic jams. The nearby El Toro Y freeway interchange already handles 300,000 to 400,000 vehicles per day. El Toro plans emphasize links to mass transit and include two rail systems designed to reduce reliance on autos.

All of this would bring jolting changes to South County cities founded as bedroom communities and inhabited in part by people escaping the stress of big-city life for weekend barbecues and quiet strolls.

“Having an airport, there’s no question the character of South County would be weighted more heavily to an urban context than its current suburban character,” said Ken Agid, a marketing executive with the Market Department, an Irvine consulting firm.

Whether the changes amount to progress is open to debate.

“No one moved here to live next door to one of the largest airports in the country,” said resident Marcia Johnson of Foothill Ranch. “What the county wants to do is essentially put a whole new city next to us with planes flying over our heads at all hours. Who in their right mind would want that?”

The airport is the centerpiece of what county planners envision as a glittering mini-city that would extend from the main terminal along a grand boulevard. Corporate offices, hotels, shopping plazas and entertainment complexes would be linked by a people-mover system also connected to a new train depot.

A second rail system would run between John Wayne Airport and El Toro, though some officials have questioned the viability of the project.

A key part of the county plan is the “international trade center,” which would give multinational corporations the opportunity to set up “consulates” that combine hotel rooms, restaurants, conference centers and other facilities linked to cultural themes.

‘Mini-City’ With Urban Ramifications

The county has yet to prepare detailed designs for the terminal, but the worldwide trend is to offer travelers more shopping and dining. Some urban planners predict that airports of the 21st century will include movie theaters, gyms, music rooms, virtual-reality game rooms, golf links and art and cultural exhibits.

“Studies show that the average traveler spends two hours in the airport,” said Bruce Wetsel, a county airport planner. “So the question is what services we can offer during that period of time.”

The concept of airport-as-shopping-center is also driven by economics. Traditional airports generate about 60% of their revenue from aviation-related services, the balance from nonaviation services such as restaurants and shops. A report by EDS, the Texas-based information systems firm, found that greater emphasis on retail can increase nonaviation revenue by more than 30%.

This is especially important if El Toro is operated by a private company rather than the county, which runs John Wayne. The Board of Supervisors hasn’t decided who would run the airport, but Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) has long advocated a major role for the private sector at El Toro.

By 2020, El Toro would likely offer travelers some conveniences now found at only a few airports. Aviation experts said the airline industry is slowly moving away from traditional tickets and will eventually use special identification cards for boarding.

El Toro planners are also considering a partnership with Metrolink and other rail operators that would allow a family from San Juan Capistrano to park at the city’s train station, check luggage and get on a train to the air terminal. Luggage would be automatically shipped directly to the waiting plane.

The airport would have an impact on many areas, particularly Orange County’s economic future, its air quality and its home values:

ECONOMICS

Experts generally agree that El Toro would be a magnet for corporations, manufacturers, high-tech firms and other businesses seeking homes close to one of the nation’s major international airports.

The construction of new airports amid the quiet farmland of northern Virginia and dusty prairie on the outskirts of Dallas gave birth to miles of office parks, low-rise edge cities and leafy high-tech campuses.

Imagine what would develop, El Toro boosters say, if an airport is built in the center of one of the nation’s most affluent counties and home to one of the strongest economies in the state.

“Nothing has a greater potential to positively impact the local Orange County economy than the development of an airport at El Toro,” said Louis H. Masotti, director of the real estate management program at UCI’s Graduate School of Management.

“It is important for businesses to be close to the airport because clients and suppliers must be visited often,” he added. “Two or three flights per executive, engineer or salesperson per month are common. Access to a major airport is thus essential.”

The El Toro plan approved by the Board of Supervisors in April calls for an airport that, by 2020, would serve about 25 million passengers each year. It would be three times the size of John Wayne Airport, about half the size of LAX.

Yet the county intends to use less than half of the 4,700-acre base for aviation-related uses. The rest would be for office developments, hotels, shopping centers and light-manufacturing sites as well as limited open space and golf links. Officials expect to attract “just-in-time” manufacturers that need to ship goods immediately after they are produced.

Most experts believe that Orange County will continue to grow even if El Toro isn’t built. Still, some economists and urban planners said airports are becoming increasingly important factors in the long-term prosperity of cities, and Orange County could suffer without offering more air service than John Wayne Airport provides.

“Population centers without a major airport will have a difficult time attracting and retaining businesses in the coming decades,” UCI’s Masotti said.

Becoming a Hub for Trade and Commerce

Masotti and others liken airports to railroad stations of the 21st century, providing cities with critical links to trade and commerce. He cited Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, N.C., and Nashville as emerging areas, like Orange County, that have benefited from developing major airports.

“What’s driving growth is the ability to travel anywhere in the world from a half-hour drive of where you work,” said David Birch, president of Cognetics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based economic research firm.

Experts say the El Toro plan would bring thousands of new jobs to Orange County--a mix of blue-collar and upper-management positions. The airport is expected to employ mostly lower- to middle-income flight attendants, maintenance workers, baggage handlers, food preparers, airplane mechanics and clerks.

Higher-wage jobs would come from the corporations locating in developments around the airport, they said.

NOISE/POLLUTION

Economic activity and commerce generated by an airport would come with a price--especially to residents who live around El Toro.

The airport plan endorsed by the Board of Supervisors last month calls for nearly 500 takeoffs and landings a day from El Toro by 2020--almost 10 times the air traffic that the military generated in 1994.

An even larger airport proposal still under consideration by the board calls for nearly 800 daily flights by 2020.

Between 10 and 11 a.m. on any weekday, nearby residents would endure an arriving or departing flight every three to six minutes. In the afternoon, they would contend with passing jets roughly every eight to 10 minutes.

More Flights Than the Military, but Quieter

County-produced studies have repeatedly concluded that an international airport would result in less overall aircraft noise than the Marine base because commercial jets are much quieter than military jets.

F-18s produce more than twice the noise of the 737 and 757 jets that would be used at the international airport, according to county noise experts.

While the Marines generally avoid flights at night and on weekends, the commercial airport would be expected to operate every day, around the clock. Under preliminary county plans, more than 30% of the passenger air service and nearly half of all cargo service would occur between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.

“It’s scary when you think of the sheer number of departures they are talking about--one after the other,” said Johnson, the Foothill Ranch resident who lives about 1 1/2 miles from a key takeoff pattern. “The cumulative effect of plane after plane will be much worse than what we had with the Marines.”

For people living along the landing patterns in Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Leisure World and Aliso Viejo, a passing jet would sound like the hum of a refrigerator or an air-conditioner if their doors and windows are closed, according to Vince Mestre, the county’s airport noise consultant.

Outdoors, that same jet would be at roughly the same decibel level as a television set.

Jet noise would get more disruptive in proximity to the airport. Hundreds of commercial and retail properties, as well as several parks, greenbelts and golf courses, could expect noise levels that exceed federal standards for residential development. Federal noise rules are less restrictive for nonresidential developments, in part because most offices and stores are noisy to begin with.

For commercial districts and open space in Laguna Hills, Lake Forest, Irvine and Foothill Ranch, the continuous roar of jets would sound like a running vacuum cleaner, according to county records.

One key question is what, if any, health risk the noise and jet fumes would pose.

A Cornell University study completed earlier this year looked at the effect of airport noise on children who lived near a new international airport in Munich, Germany. Researchers studied the children while the airport was being built and after it opened.

They found that the jet noise resulted in higher blood-pressure and stress hormone levels in the children. Cornell professor Gary Evans said the study is “definitive proof that [airport] noise causes stress and is harmful to humans.”

A county analysis of the Cornell report found that the Munich children were exposed to noise levels several times higher than what residential areas and schools around El Toro would receive. Mestre, the county’s airport noise consultant, agreed that loud noises can cause stress, but not at the levels proposed in the El Toro airport plan, he said.

As for pollution, a preliminary county report in 1996 said building a commercial airport at El Toro would send 80,000 pounds of pollutants into the air each day. Most of that would come from plane and auto emissions. One three-minute DC-10 jet takeoff emits roughly the same amount of pollution as 15,000 to 20,000 cars idling during that same period.

In New York, doctors and local government officials have expressed concern over how jet emissions from John F. Kennedy International Airport are affecting Queens residents with respiratory problems. They are pressing for more research to determine whether the emissions are harmful.

The county plans to conduct more detailed studies over the next year to determine how the pollution would affect residents.

PROPERTY VALUES

Many South County residents fear the value of their homes will drop if El Toro is built.

Yet real estate experts are divided over whether noise, traffic and other problems that would come with the airport would depress home prices, or if expected economic growth would make surrounding communities even more desirable.

In 1997, a Santa Monica-based research firm completed a study suggesting that homes closest to LAX and Ontario International Airport sold for at least 23% less than similar homes in neighborhoods farther away. The report, by Bell & Associates Inc., said expensive homes near airports fared especially poorly.

In Seattle, a 1996 study found that homes near the city’s international airport would sell for 10% more if they were moved farther from the jet noise and pollution.

Airport proponents here say that the studies aren’t applicable to El Toro--mainly because the base had been an active military airport long before any of the housing tracts grew around it.

“Residences in communities immediately adjacent to El Toro already have an ‘aviation discount’ factored into their property values,” said Masotti, director of UCI’s real estate management program.

Potential for Change in Home Values

So far, the highly publicized plan to build an international airport at El Toro does not appear to have depressed nearby home values.

In the last six months of 1997, single-home values within a seven-mile radius of El Toro rose 4.1%--compared with 2.4% countywide, according to the Experian real estate database firm.

Still, the report found that, within South County, homes closest to the base appreciated at a slower rate. Homes within three miles of El Toro saw their value rise an average of 2.8%, compared with 7.6% for homes five to seven miles from the base.

Masotti said aviation developments elsewhere--including Chicago, Dallas and Denver--suggest that homes more than 2 1/2 miles from airports haven’t seen values decline.

“Indeed, they may realize an increase in value relative to comparable residences further removed from proximity to an airport,” he said.

How about the thousands of people who live closest to El Toro?

“Those regular [flight] intervals are totally disruptive to tranquil domestic life,” said Paul Eckles, executive director of the coalition of South County cities fighting the airport. “It’s ridiculous to think that housing is going to retain its value with that kind of hammering.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How El Toro Could Sound in 2020

Here is a breakdown of outdoor jet noise levels in surrounding communities, measured in decibel levels averaged over a 24-hour period. The county said areas that will see noise levels between 65 and 70 decibels are mostly commercial developments, parks and open space. Residential areas closest to the airport will experience noise levels between 50 and 60 decibels.

110 db “uncomfortably loud”: Turbofan aircraft at takeoff; rock band

90 db “very loud”: Power lawn mower; newspaper press operating

80 db “very loud”: Carwash; food blender; garbage disposal

70 db “moderately loud”: Car driving 65 mph; vacuum cleaner

60 db “moderately loud”: Electric typewriter; normal conversation

50 db “quiet”: Hum of air conditioner

40 db “quiet”: Bird call

AIRPORT

The Proposal:

Build an international airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, surrounded by commercial developments, hotels, conference centers, an international trade complex, golf courses and offices.

Pros:

* Strong boost for economy, helps foster international trade.

* Provides more convenient air service for O.C. residents, businesses.

* Helps meet region’s demand for air passenger, cargo service.

Cons:

* Sends hundreds of planes a day over nearby communities.

* Highly unpopular with residents who live around the base.

* Health effect of jet pollution, noise not clear.

MILLENNIUM PLAN

The Proposal:

Develop a “mini-city” on the base complete with offices, homes, museums, a football stadium, a massive central park, a university and a performing arts complex.

Pros:

* No jet noise for surrounding residents.

* Includes popular projects, like museums and stadium.

* Favored by residents who live around the base.

Cons:

* Museums, art complex, university and other proposals far from a done deal.

* Not considered as strong an economic engine as airport.

* Some developments, like stadium, might require public funding.

Source: Times reports

If El Toro Went International

The El Toro airport plan endorsedby the Board of Supervisors calls for about 500 daily arivals and departures by 2020--roughly 10 times the number of flights handled by the Marines. Here is a breakdown of when those flights would occur:

a.m.

12:00: 1.6%

1:00: 2.0%

2:00: 1.2%

3:00: 1.1%

4:00: 0.6%

5:00: 1.3%

6:00: 3.1%

7:00: 3.9%

8:00: 5.4%

9:00: 5.2%

10:00: 6.9%