Valley Elections Feature Volatile Mix of Factors

No longer predictable, Tuesday’s elections in the San Fernando Valley will feature new, motivated voters, renewed secession sentiment and even a new balloting format.

Adding more volatility to the mix is a booming economy, a dramatic drop in crime rates, record spending by candidates for governor and controversial ballot propositions.

Any of those factors could be enough to sway voters in unexpected ways as they cast ballots in 14 state Senate, Assembly and congressional races in the region and a slew of statewide ballot measures.

Traditional Democratic Party politics will clash with new Latino voting strength in the 20th District race for the state Senate--the Valley’s most hotly waged contest. Former Assemblyman Richard Katz, buoyed by a last-minute influx of money from powerful medical groups, faces Los Angeles City Councilman Richard Alarcon, whose candidacy is backed by a recent infusion of cash from a group of fellow Latino politicians.

The political veterans have attacked each other’s character as the campaign to represent a district that runs from Ventura Boulevard to the northeast Valley draws to a close.

Money could be the key in the West Valley, where wealthy businessman and political neophyte Randy Hoffman has outspent two Republican challengers in the race to run against first-time Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks) in November.

The 24th Congressional District race is one of only 10 in the country that the national Republican Party has targeted for special attention as it tries to retain control of Congress.

Another barometer of the changing mix of area voters could be the contest in the northeast Valley between 26th Congressional District Rep. Howard Berman (D-Mission Hills) and San Fernando Mayor Raul Godinez, who have attacked each other on the issue of public safety in the final days of an increasingly bitter campaign.

Godinez has targeted Latino and Republican voters, who for the first time can vote for Democratic candidates, thanks to this year’s new open primary.

The number of Latino voters in the Valley has increased from 7% to 9% from 1993 to 1997, but they have yet to become a force in Valley politics.

That may change.

The Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project is in the midst of a massive effort to register 35,000 Latino voters in the Valley. If successful, the effort would more than double the number of Latino voters in the region. At last count, Southwest officials said they had registered about 5,000 Latino voters in the Valley.

At the same time, Valley Organized in Community Efforts, or VOICE, a church-based organization, is employing 100 volunteers to mobilize Latino voters against Proposition 227, a measure to end bilingual education in California public schools.

“I don’t think you can win an election just on ethnicity, but I think the Latino vote will be making an impact on many races,” said Juana Mora, a Chicano studies professor at Cal State Northridge.

Political consultants and academics predict the booming economy and the recent drop in crime rates will benefit incumbents because voters will feel content with the status quo. But it may have a less-appealing effect--a low voter turnout.

“It appears that people are generally happy. The economy is doing pretty well, interests rates are low and unemployment is down,” said Matthew Cahn, director of the center for Southern California studies at Cal State Northridge. “A good economy tends to benefit the incumbents and tends to mean that turnout will be low.”

Another factor that may influence the race is the number of absentee ballots. So far, 382,710 voters in Los Angeles County have requested absentee ballots, compared with 267,433 in the gubernatorial primary in 1994, according to the county registrar-recorder.

In the past, an increased number of absentee ballot requests has indicated a growing participation by the less mobile senior population and has tended to benefit conservative candidates.

“That theory may go out the window this year because now you can vote for any party affiliation you want,” said Grace Chavez, a spokeswoman for the registrar-recorder.

But many political experts downplay the significance of the open primary, predicting that few voters will cross party lines.

During Tuesday’s elections, a group called Valley VOTE will be circulating a petition near polling places that calls for an in-depth study on the feasibility of a Valley secession.

It is an issue that seems to resonate with voters.

A March survey of 1,205 likely voters in the Valley found that 58% would vote to create an independent Valley city if the matter were on the ballot today.

Secession has become a nagging issue for many Valley candidates who have been forced to take a position on the controversial matter.

Alarcon, for example, has been attacked by Katz for declining to sign the petition because he fears it will give the impression that he supports secession. Katz said he will sign the petition.

The secession petition is one of only a few issues that distinguish Katz and Alarcon. For the most part, they are considered moderate Democrats who agree on many key issues.

During the campaign, Katz has touted his 16 years in the Assembly, making “Experience Counts” his campaign slogan.

Alarcon has promoted his lifelong ties to the northeast Valley. His campaign brochures feature photos of him with his family, his father and a local parish priest.

But toward the end of the race, they began to lash out at each other. Katz issued a campaign mailer criticizing Alarcon for taking a personal loan in 1994 from the wife of a politically connected developer who later received a no-interest loan from the city. Alarcon attacked Katz’s Assembly voting record in a campaign brochure that Katz loudly decried.

In the last week of the campaign, both candidates are benefiting from late contributions.

Alarcon has received $106,500 from the California Friends Latino Political Action Committee, a group headed by state Sen. Richard G. Polanco (D-Los Angeles), chairman of Sacramento’s Latino caucus, and Assembly members Tony Cardenas (D-Sylmar) and Denise Ducheny (D-San Diego).

Katz, who is an appointed member of a state panel that grants Medi-Cal contracts, has received $8,500 from the California Medical Assn. Political Action Committee, $10,000 from the California School Employees Assn. and $10,000 from a fund controlled by state Sen. Patrick Johnston (D-Stockton).

The two Democrats--running in a heavily Democratic district--are vying to replace Sen. Herschel Rosenthal (D-Los Angeles), who is being forced out by term limits.

In the West Valley, Hoffman, the former president of a high-tech firm, has outspent his two Republican opponents in hopes of winning a chance to face Sherman in November.

The most recent campaign records show that Hoffman has raised $636,000--most of it coming from loans and contributions he made to his own campaign. In contrast, his challengers, businessman William Westmiller and former newspaper columnist Joe Gelman, have raised a combined total of about $20,000.

During the campaign, Hoffman has stuck to general themes, such as improving schools and reducing crime.

But Gelman, Westmiller and Sherman have repeatedly attacked Hoffman, accusing him of trying to win the primary with huge personal expenditures and a vague campaign platform.

Hoffman’s campaign is not worried about the attacks.

“I don’t think it has hurt Randy’s image,” said campaign director Todd Blair. “If anything, all it has done is heightened awareness of Randy’s campaign.”

The district, which stretches from Studio City to Westlake Village in Ventura County, is considered a “swing district” that could be won by either a Republican or Democrat.

In the northeast Valley, Godinez, an engineer with the city of Los Angeles, has conceded that he is an underdog in the race to unseat Berman, a 16-year member of Congress and the ranking member on the Ethics Committee.

The two candidates have primarily campaigned on issues of public safety.