Post-Mortem on How the GOP Faltered

President John Adams once said facts are stubborn things. The same is true of vote margins. That’s why Republicans and conservatives spent a week watching election returns last Tuesday night. The view from this corner:

The governor’s race: Dan Lungren lost the general election last June. Gray Davis capitalized on California’s new open primary, seeking votes across party lines (from male as well as female Republicans), appealed to independents and nailed down his base. Consequently, he won voters who otherwise might have gone to Lungren, and whose newfound loyalty to Davis made them unlikely to switch allegiances. A Lungren strategy to spend resources in the primary to attract these voters would have placed the burden on Davis to win them back, thus sidetracking Davis’ forward momentum.

Permitted in the primary to poach votes from the Lungren constituency, Davis narrowly defeated Lungren as well as his two Democratic opponents, and emerged even more the giant killer. Touting his experience, making a comeback and winning over nontraditional votes, Davis elevated his stature and attained attributes of leadership not apparent when he began the race.

The stature thing: Dan Lungren owns one of the finest resumes in politics, and yet it was Davis who seemed the more prepared for this high office. Lungren’s distinguished congressional career, his impressive legislative achievements and the admiring--if grudging-- respect he earned even from raw partisans like former Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill were never dramatized sufficiently. Californians want their governors to display personas of substance and stature. Davis won that contest by letting an announcer with a smooth baritone speak off-screen, as carefully staged film sequences touted Davis’ credentials. Lungren unnecessarily suffered by comparison.

The Democrats’ self-image: In 1976, Republicans held back as Jimmy Carter built up a lead approaching 40 points against Jerry Ford. Pounded into embarrassment over Watergate and the Nixon pardon, Republicans did not feel good about themselves. But as election day neared, Ford campaign commercials began playing a genius jingle (“I’m Feeling Good About America”) written by San Francisco adman Bob Gardner against the video backdrop of happy Americans. Ford lost by an eyelash as Republicans came back, feeling better about their party and its candidate.

This year, Democrats emerged to establish that they were not characterless creeps or grand jury targets. They voted to restore pride in their party and to justify their partisan traditions--made easier by the fact they didn’t have to vote for Bill Clinton to do so. They could vote for Democratic candidates disconnected in their minds to the mess in Washington. It’s natural for folks to want to be on the winning team--and millions of Democrats across the nation restored their faith as party members by fueling victories. That explains the Times’ exit poll of California voters showing Democrats topping Republicans in turnout by a margin fully 10% higher than four years ago.

Negative ads: One thing we’ve learned in the past few election cycles, and confirmed in this one, is that analysts in the media and academic squishes who hand-wring over those awful negative ads don’t seem to mind negative ads when they support the causes of teachers unions, death to the tobacco industry, vilifying Newt Gingrich or mutilating any opponent of Barbara Boxer. Twice in this newspaper, scabrous ads portraying Matt Fong as an atrocious monster were referred to merely as hard-hitting.

But Boxer’s commercials routinely disfigured her opponent by portraying him in grainy slow motion, menacingly pumping his arm up and down, with his mouth jerkily twisted to appear as a threatening sneer. Who could possibly vote for this cartoon gargoyle who would put nuclear waste in our drinking water, pollute kids’ hamburgers and spew sludge into San Francisco Bay?

Attention Republicans: There is a raw double standard for measuring campaign ads. In the future, you must be equally relentless in portraying your opponents, since the bare-knuckler Boxer has set a standard gaining full acceptance by the media.

Orange County: Pete Wilson defeated Kathleen Brown in Orange County by 305,000 votes in 1994, while Lungren enjoyed only a 48,000-vote margin this year. Could there be a louder signal? Republicans have lost their lock on winning both locally and statewide in Orange County. This political quilt needs repair.

In the meantime, as Angel fans say: Wait till next year.

Kenneth L. Khachigian is a veteran political strategist and former White House speech writer who practices law in Orange County. His column appears here every other week.