Clinton Sends New Forces to the Gulf as Tensions Mount

By JAMES GERSTENZANG

Nov. 12, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

WASHINGTON —

President Clinton sent a wave of military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf on Wednesday and declared that failure to contain Iraq’s weapons program would give Saddam Hussein an opportunity to rebuild his arsenal within months.

As his administration steamed closer to unleashing military force against the Iraqi president for shutting down U.N. weapons inspections, Clinton presented his most forceful case yet for attacking Iraq, describing ominous implications of inaction.

“A failure to respond could embolden Saddam to act recklessly,” he said, “signaling to him that he can with impunity develop these weapons of mass destruction or threaten his neighbors.”

The president’s muscular warnings and the deployment of more troops and materiel clearly pointed to an increased likelihood of military action. Yet administration officials left open the possibility that Iraq might back down or that limited efforts at behind-the-scenes diplomacy might succeed.

“We continue to hope--indeed, pray--that Saddam will comply, but we must be prepared to act if he does not,” Clinton said.

Gen. Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was equally blunt in a televised interview, saying, “I would say that Saddam Hussein has been given adequate warning.”

The administration, in fact, has publicly rejected any new negotiations with Iraq. Having reached what it considers a stage of ultimatums, it finds itself with limited options, none of them attractive, as it waits to see if the Iraqi leader responds.

Baghdad has pledged that it will not cooperate with the weapons inspectors until the U.N. Security Council begins to lift economic sanctions imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. The United States and its allies on the council say the embargo will remain until inspectors determine that the Hussein regime has ended its efforts to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

Other developments in Washington and the Middle East on Wednesday only heightened tensions:

* The Pentagon announced that it was sending more warplanes to the region, including F-117A Stealth fighters, which played a key role in initial attacks on Baghdad during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. But the United States has received only limited offers of military and logistical support from other nations.

* U.N. weapons inspectors, whose operations were shut down by Hussein two weeks ago, were hastily evacuated from Iraq, along with most humanitarian aid workers there. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan appealed yet again to Iraq to cooperate with the inspection regime.

* The State Department authorized a voluntary evacuation of some U.S. officials and their families from Israel and Kuwait, which could be vulnerable to Iraqi retaliation after a U.S. military strike. It suggested to private citizens in those countries that they consider leaving.

* Clinton spoke by telephone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defense Secretary William S. Cohen with his Israeli counterpart, Yitzhak Mordechai, about the situation in Iraq. “We believe the chance of Iraqi action against Israel is very slight,” Israeli Ambassador Zalman Shoval said. “However, we are prepared for any eventuality.”

* In Israel, officials announced that even though the risk of an Iraqi missile attack is considered extremely low, gas mask distribution centers will open throughout the country early today and begin operating around the clock in response to the crisis. In the Gulf War, Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles at Israel, sending thousands of people into shelters and sparking widespread panic.

* Secretary of State Madeleine Albright delayed for at least 30 hours a scheduled trip to Asia that was supposed to have begun today. Her spokesman said the availability of an Air Force jet capable of midair refueling allowed her to remain in the capital, in the midst of the escalating crisis, longer than originally planned.

* A day earlier, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, which carries 5,000 sailors and 75 combat aircraft, left San Diego to form the nucleus of a carrier battle group headed for the Gulf. The battle group includes five ships from San Diego and two fast-attack submarines from Pearl Harbor.

At an average 500 miles a day, it will take about 10 days before the Vinson battle group is within striking distance of the Gulf.

Ordinarily berthed in Bremerton, Wash., the Vinson is set to relieve the battle group headed by the carrier Abraham Lincoln, although it is possible that both groups could remain in the region, doubling the amount of firepower that could be unleashed on a target or targets.

In three weeks, a four-ship amphibious ready group with 2,200 combat-trained Marines from Camp Pendleton is set to join the Vinson in the Gulf region. The Boxer amphibious ready group is set to relieve the Essex ready group. Together, the Vinson and Boxer groups consist of 16,000 sailors and Marines, nearly all from West Coast ports and bases.

Clinton’s Remarks Target U.S. Public

Serving as a blunt reminder of global realpolitik on Veterans Day, Clinton’s threatening remarks Wednesday, delivered at Arlington National Cemetery, were directed not so much at the Iraqi president as at the American public, in an effort to outline the rationale for military operations.

“There should be no doubt in Saddam’s mind as to what the international community expects him to do. The problem is not a lack of messages,” a White House official said. “The problem is he has not been listening.

“The door is not closed,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, “but we do not have any indication from Iraq that they have any plans to change course.”

State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said U.S. officials believe that they have served adequate notice to Hussein of the potential for military action, declaring, “We don’t see the point or need for further warning.”

With no room for negotiation, Rubin said, diplomatic contacts are being directed at making the stakes clear and getting others to understand what the United States sees as Hussein’s threat to the region and the world. They should also know, he said, that “we are considering our options.”

Reflecting the intense frustration felt by U.S. officials in dealing with Hussein, Clinton echoed language used more than eight years ago by then-President Bush--and nearly every foreign policy official since then--when he said the Iraqi regime “threatens the civility of one of the most vital regions of the world.”

Rather than end its isolation by complying with U.N. weapons resolutions, Clinton said, Iraq has “worked to shirk those obligations, withholding evidence about its weapons capability; threatening, harassing, blocking the inspectors; massing troops on the Kuwaiti border in the south; attacking the Kurds in the north.”

To remove the threat he now faces, not to mention the sanctions that have barred Iraq from global commerce for more than eight years, Hussein must allow the weapons inspectors to do their job, Clinton said.

“If the inspectors are not permitted to visit suspect sites or monitor compliance at known production facilities, they may as well be in Baltimore, not Baghdad,” Clinton said. “That would open a window of opportunity for Iraq to rebuild its arsenal of weapons and delivery systems in months--and I say again--in months, not years.”

Few Allies Offer Troops or Materiel

Notwithstanding Clinton’s declaration that “the international community is united,” the United States has not been offered troops or materiel by a large number of allies. In February, when it threatened to use force against Iraq, 22 nations offered such aid.

But U.S. officials said they expect Britain to offer warplanes and pilots. They said it was not clear if France will contribute. Both France and Britain have flown patrols to keep Hussein’s warplanes out of portions of Iraq’s skies.

The officials said they also expect Persian Gulf states, among them Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait, to offer U.S. planes access to their bases as well as overflight rights, if requested.

Under orders signed Wednesday by Cohen, the 23,500 U.S. ground troops already in the region will be augmented by at least 3,000 new arrivals. In addition, 129 airplanes, among them B-1 and B-52 heavy bombers, will be added to the 170 already there, and Patriot antimissile systems are being dispatched.

At the United Nations, Richard Butler, director of the U.N. Special Commission assigned to look for weapons development sites in Iraq, ordered all arms inspectors to leave Baghdad on the advice of the chief U.S. delegate to the United Nations, Peter Burleigh.

The U.N. Security Council met privately for three hours to discuss the inspectors’ departure. Russia’s ambassador, Sergei V. Lavrov, said he hopes that U.S. officials “calculate the consequences” of force.

“You know about the first step,” he said, “but you don’t know about the next one.”

Times staff writers John J. Goldman at the United Nations, Norman Kempster, Tyler Marshall and Paul Richter in Washington, Rebecca Trounson in Jerusalem and Tony Perry in San Diego contributed to this report.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Another Round?

The buildup of U.S. firepower in the region comes as U.N. inspectors and most relief workers in Iraq were evacuated in anticipation of possible U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. air and sea forces massed in the Persian Gulf later this month will be slightly below the numbers reached by the American military in the region earlier in the year during a previous confrontation with Iraq.

IRAQ’S FIREPOWER

Defense analysts say Iraq is still highly vulnerable, with an aging air defense and no navy:

Active ground force: 350,000

Reserves: 650,000

Battle tanks: 2,000

Aircraft: 300-350 (as few as 100 may be serviceable)

* Air bases

****

U.S. FORCES

*--*

Currently in Dispatched region Wednesday Warplanes 170 129 Cruise missiles 300 96 Troops 23,500 3,000

*--*