CBS Looking at a Narrow Sweeps Victory

The first ratings sweeps of the post-”Seinfeld” era find longtime front-runner NBC rejoining the network pack and under siege on two fronts, with CBS holding a narrow lead for supremacy in total audience and Fox catching up in the age brackets most coveted by advertisers.

The major networks in general, meanwhile, continue to experience a steady audience decline in the face of competing options, even with the usual arsenal of miniseries, movies and specials rolled out for sweeps.

Through Tuesday night, with results from Wednesday--the last night of the sweeps--yet to be included, CBS was averaging 13.7 million viewers during an average minute of prime time, to NBC’s 13.5 million. ABC, getting some help in the 11th hour from Tuesday’s “NYPD Blue,” stood at 12.8 million, with 11.9 million tuning in to Fox.

Fox has also completed the most competitive sweeps in its history, a sliver behind NBC in terms of attracting adults age 18 to 49, the demographic group that most directly translates to profitability. ABC ranks third, while CBS--whose lineup traditionally skews older--remains in fourth place.

Final tallies for the four-week survey won’t be available until early next week, but win, lose or draw (and the figures are unlikely to change significantly), there’s some irony in Fox’s competitive milestone, given that the network moved to replace the head of its entertainment division, Peter Roth, nine days ago. NBC also underwent a management shift shortly before the sweeps began.

All four major networks attracted fewer viewers than in November 1997, resulting in an overall decline of 4.2 million viewers--or about 8% of their combined audience--versus a year ago, with Fox exhibiting the smallest year-to-year losses.

Only the upstart WB network, led by such programs as “7th Heaven” and “Dawson’s Creek,” bucked the trend among broadcast outlets, increasing its average audience to 4.8 million viewers while the other aspiring “fifth network,” UPN, tumbled out of the race for that title. UPN’s audience sank more than 40%, to about 2.7 million people, during the 10 hours the network programs.

NBC’s woes weren’t entirely unexpected, stemming in part from the loss of “Seinfeld” and NFL football. The network’s dominating Thursday lineup experienced a 16% drop compared to last November, with “Frasier” filling “Seinfeld’s” shoes--and moving “Frasier” from Tuesdays has cost NBC viewers on that night.

NBC’s losses have been even steeper among male viewers, since “Seinfeld” and football helped funnel men into the network’s lineup, while “Frasier” skews more heavily toward women. Fox capitalized on that dynamic by airing specials exhibiting video of real-life mayhem on Thursdays, such as “When Good Pets Go Bad” and “Shocking Moments Caught on Tape,” more than doubling its audience among men age 18 to 49.

“Clearly, they hit upon a vulnerability on this night,” said Preston Beckman, NBC’s senior vice president of program planning and scheduling, who conceded that lower Thursday ratings for NBC have had a ripple effect, since the network drew on its big “Must-See TV” tune-in to promote other nights.

With the sweeps over, both CBS and Fox looked ahead, trumpeting their momentum coming out of the four-week survey.

“This bodes very well for the future--that it was series, not specials, that caused our great results,” said CBS Television President Leslie Moonves.

By contrast, Fox devoted seven hours--almost half of its 15-hour prime-time schedule--to the so-called reality genre last week, a level even Fox Chairman David Hill acknowledged might be excessive. Still, Hill said the network is in good shape “for December and beyond. I think we’ve come out of this superbly positioned.”

Beckman said NBC would have greater cause for concern if one of its competitors had launched two or three new hit series--a claim none of the networks can make at this juncture.

“I wish we could say any of the networks had a breakout hit,” said Alan Wurtzel, ABC’s senior vice president of media development, brand management and research. “I think it’s good for the business.”

While no programs this November rivaled the success of last year’s movies “Cinderella” or CBS’ “What the Deaf Man Heard,” sweeps highlights included the miniseries “The Temptations” and “Mama Flora’s Family,” which aired on NBC and CBS, respectively. That bodes well for the networks’ “big event” strategy, relying on special programming to temporarily woo back viewers and create a platform to promote series.

Assembling big audiences for such events--from sports to miniseries--remains a unique attribute of broadcasting, if an increasingly elusive one in today’s fragmented TV environment. Moonves said the networks must ultimately focus on their core schedules and series, which are capable of bringing viewers back week after week.

Despite ratings erosion for broadcasters and corresponding inroads by cable, the major networks noted that they still combined for more than 50 million viewers nightly during sweeps, controlling a large if dwindling slice of the viewing pie.

Television stations use sweeps results to negotiate deals with advertisers, making the network lead-ins to local newscasts critical.