Boxer Takes the Lead in Senate Race With Fong

Coming from behind, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer has reversed her fortunes, buffed her image and pulled slightly ahead of state Treasurer Matt Fong just 11 days before the election, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Enjoying some of the highest job approval and personal favorability ratings of her six years in office, Democrat Boxer leads Republican Fong by 5 percentage points, 49% to 44%, among those considered likely to vote Nov. 3. A month ago, Boxer was trailing Fong by 5 points among likely voters.

At the same time, Boxer’s bare 49% means she can scarcely afford to breathe easy, particularly in a so-called off-year--or nonpresidential--election, when conservative voters have tended to turn out more reliably.

She barely won in 1992, her first statewide campaign, with 48% of the vote. For an incumbent, reaching 50% is an important threshold because anything less suggests fertile ground for a challenger.

Still, Boxer’s lead represents a significant rebound from just a few weeks ago.

The Democrat evidently reversed her position in the see-saw contest through a series of hard-hitting, and largely unanswered, TV commercials targeting Fong’s stance on gun control, abortion and HMO reform--ads that appear to have solidified Boxer’s support among two groups crucial to her reelection prospects: women and moderate voters.

Although Fong is ahead 52% to 41% among likely male voters, Boxer holds a 56% to 37% lead among women, who constitute a majority of the state electorate and proved indispensable to her election six years ago. Seventeen percent of Republican women most likely to vote are planning to cross party lines.

And although both candidates are generally holding on to their partisan bases, Boxer leads Fong among self-described middle-of-the-road likely voters, 62% to 26%.

“Boxer has done the better job of seizing the center, where most California voters are comfortable, and pushing Fong to the right,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. “She’s succeeded in turning the race away from a straight referendum on her incumbency, which Fong would like to make it, into more of an issue-focused contest between the two candidates.”

Moreover, Boxer seems to have benefited from receding attention to the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal, which consumed the media for months, drowned out most talk of issues and pointed up her close personal and political ties to President Clinton.

The poll surveyed 1,449 registered voters Oct. 17-21. Among them, 883 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of error is 4 percentage points in either direction for likely voters and 3 points in either direction for registered voters.

TV Ads Make Impact

Boxer’s surge between September and October demonstrates anew the potency--indeed, primacy--of television advertising in California politics.

Thanks to her command of the airwaves--Boxer has outspent Fong on TV advertising by roughly 2-1--the embattled incumbent has lifted herself in California voters’ esteem while raising doubts about her opponent.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters now approve of Boxer’s job performance and 37% disapprove. Although hardly a ringing vote of confidence, the figures mark the highest rating of Boxer’s six years in the Senate.

For all her gains in the latest survey, however, the incumbent remains a highly polarizing figure. Although 79% of likely Democratic voters approve of Boxer’s job performance and 11% disapprove, 65% of likely Republican voters disapprove of her job performance and only 21% approve.

Similarly, among likely male voters, 45% disapprove of Boxer’s job performance and 43% approve, compared to 58% of women who approve and 30% who disapprove.

In a separate gauge of each candidate’s standing, 52% of likely voters now have a favorable impression of Boxer and 42% an unfavorable one. A month ago, 49% of likely voters viewed Boxer favorably and 41% had an unfavorable impression.

Perhaps more significant, several weeks of negative advertising against Fong have clearly taken a toll on his image. Fong is still viewed favorably by 52% of likely voters; 31% view him unfavorably.

“With her ability to outspend him on advertising, Boxer has done a better job so far of defining Matt Fong than Matt Fong has,” Pinkus said. “She’s managed to set the agenda these last few weeks and run the race on her terms.”

Moreover, on the issues Boxer has hit hardest in her advertising--abortion and gun control--the Democrat is commanding far stronger support. On abortion, Boxer is firmly pro-choice; Fong would restrict a woman’s right to abortion after the first trimester of pregnancy.

Asked which candidate’s views come closest to their own, 55% of likely voters said Boxer’s and 40% cited Fong. Both men and women most likely to vote felt the same on abortion, with 55% supporting Boxer and 40% backing Fong.

On gun control, Boxer favors widening the federal ban on assault-style weapons and supports a ban on so-called Saturday night specials. Fong favors the existing weapons ban but opposes new gun controls.

Asked which candidate’s views come closest to their own on gun issues, 60% of likely voters said Boxer’s and 33% cited Fong. Among men, 52% cited Boxer and 45% Fong; among women, 68% agreed with Boxer and 22% with Fong.

Candidates Keep Political Bases

Predictably, each candidate was holding on to his or her political base, though Boxer was making slightly better inroads among Republicans.

Eighty-five percent of Democrats backed Boxer while just 9% of Democrats were defecting to Fong. The GOP challenger was getting 80% of Republican support, losing 13% to Boxer, many of them GOP women. Also, about three in 10 likely moderate Republican voters were going to Boxer, while 13% of more conservative Democrats were siding with Fong.

Geographically, Boxer holds commanding leads in the Democratic bastions of the San Francisco Bay Area, 66% to 29%, and Los Angeles, 54% to 38%, while Fong was ahead in the more conservative Central Valley, 56% to 40%, and in Republican strongholds of Southern California outside of Los Angeles County, 55% to 34%.

Although both candidates were essentially tied among likely white voters, Boxer had more support among two traditional Democratic constituencies, garnering more than 3 of 5 votes among Latinos and 4 of 5 votes among African Americans.

Compare your views to those of Times Poll respondents in an interactive survey on The Times’ Web site: https://www.latimes.com/senatepoll

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Gender Disparity

Among likely voters, there is a wide gender gap in the preference for U.S. senator.

Men

Fong: 52%

Boxer: 41%

Other/Don’t know: 7%

*

Women

Fong: 37%

Boxer: 56%

Other/Don’t know: 7%

Sources: L.A. Times Poll

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Boxer Leads Fong in Poll

Among likely voters, Barbara Boxer has pulled slightly ahead of Matt Fong in her bid for the U.S. Senate. Her positions on abortion and a ban on assault weapons and Saturday night specials are more in sync with California voters than her opponent’s.

* If the election for U.S. senator were being held today, for whom would you vote: Matt Fong or Barbara Boxer?

Don’t know: 7%

Boxer: 49%

Fong: 44%

*

What is your impression of . . .

Fong

Don’t know: 17%

Favorable: 52%

Unfavorable: 31%

*

Boxer

Don’t know: 6%

Favorable: 52%

Unfavorable: 42%

*

Who better understands people like you: Boxer or Fong?

Boxer: 47%

Fong: 40%

*

Barbara Boxer favors widening the ban on assault weapons and banning junk guns also known as Saturday night specials. Matt Fong supports the existing assault weapons ban but opposes extending bans on assault weapons and opposes a ban on Saturday night specials. Which of the candidates’ views comes closer to your view?

Boxer: 60%

Fong: 33%

*

Barbara Boxer believes in the right of every woman to decide whether to have an abortion or not. Matt Fong would place restrictions on a woman having an abortion after the first three months of her pregnancy. Which of the candidates’ views comes closer to your view?

Boxer: 55%

Fong: 40%

*

Does (Boxer’s/Fong’s) position on abortion make you more or less likely to vote for (her/him), or does it have no effect on your vote?

*--*

Fong Boxer More likely 23% 31% Less likely 33% 25% No effect 43% 43%

*--*

Notes: All results are among likely voters. Numbers may not total 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone Oct. 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters, it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.