Davis Takes Substantial Lead Over Lungren

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis has opened a commanding lead over his opponent, Dan Lungren, as election day approaches, solidifying his hold on his own party while deepening his reach into the Republican ranks, a new Los Angeles Times poll has shown.

Among voters considered likely to cast ballots, Davis led 53%-42%. His supporters include a surprising 45% of moderate Republicans, 23% of Republican women and 17% of Republican men, the poll found.

At this point in the campaign, Davis has upended the traditional Republican strategy for winning statewide contests--to run strongly enough among men and whites to offset Democratic strength among women and minorities. Davis has pulled to a draw among men and whites, a feat unseen in the last four gubernatorial contests--in which the Democratic candidates were themselves women or minorities.

The poll underscores the difficulties facing Lungren as he seeks to move ahead in the nine days left before election day. Not only does he need to reinforce support from his own party members, but he must reverse views held about him by the middle-of-the-road voters who decide elections in California.

Among self-defined moderates, 52% have an unfavorable impression of the Republican attorney general, while only 34% think well of him. The Democratic lieutenant governor, in contrast, has an 80% favorable rating among the same group, only 16% of whom disapprove of him.

In a finding that will doubtlessly grate on Lungren, a higher percentage of voters felt negatively toward Lungren than toward former Gov. Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown Jr., whose image Lungren has spent the campaign impugning. Forty-two percent of likely voters had an unfavorable impression of Lungren, compared with 37% for Brown, whom Davis served as chief of staff.

“This looks very good for Gray Davis,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. “The moderate Republicans and Republican women--that tells the whole story.”

The Times Poll interviewed 1,449 registered voters, among them 883 considered likely to cast ballots, from Oct. 17-21. The margin of sampling error is four percentage points in either direction for likely voters and three points in either direction for registered voters.

In highly disciplined fashion, Davis and his campaign have aimed at the middle of the political road, helped along by Lungren’s having positioned himself in the conservative wing of the Republican Party.

As the poll showed, Davis has been dramatically successful in selling himself. He leads in broad areas of the state, among most voter groups, and is considered by voters to be better able to handle most of the issues that will confront the state’s next governor.

Davis has also been assisted by voter indignation at Republican handling of the scandals surrounding President Clinton, the poll found. A quarter of likely voters said they were more apt to cast ballots because of the scandals--and among them, about six in 10 were siding with Davis.

Democrats, who have not always firmly embraced Davis, now stand strongly in his corner, the poll showed. Fully 85% of Democrats sided with him, while a lesser 75% of Republicans allied themselves with Lungren. And Davis was pulling nearly twice the percentage of Republicans into his camp as Lungren was Democrats, 20%-11%.

When it came to ideology, Davis commanded overwhelming support among liberals--84% to 12% for Lungren--but, more surprisingly, also captured 19% of self-professed conservatives. Lungren won 77%.

But it was among the moderates, a highly influential voter group because of their propensity to swing between the major political parties, that Davis’ reach was most pronounced.

Seventy-one percent of the group sided with him, compared with 22% for Lungren. In contrast, when Republican Pete Wilson narrowly won the governorship for the first time in 1990, he won 46% of moderates.

Lungren, Fong Hurt by Ads Showing Gingrich

Moderate Republicans were splitting their vote, with 44% for Lungren and 45% for Davis. Moderate Democrats were lopsidedly for Davis, 80%-14%.

Times Poll director Pinkus said both Lungren and the GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate, state treasurer Matt Fong, have been successfully linked to figures such as conservative House Speaker Newt Gingrich--to their political detriment. Both Democrats running in the high-profile races, Davis and incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer, have used Gingrich in their advertising campaigns.

“People, in their minds, are looking at Lungren and Fong as being more conservative,” Pinkus said. “The commercials have had an impact.”

In terms of gender and race, the governor contest this year stands apart from the last several races. Men, an exceedingly important group to Republicans, have refused to attach themselves wholeheartedly to Lungren. Forty-nine percent said they backed Davis and 47% Lungren--a statistical wash. In 1990, Wilson defeated Democrat Dianne Feinstein in part because of a seven-point margin among men--one that blossomed to 20 points in his reelection victory over Democrat Kathleen Brown, a Times exit poll showed.

Women were giving their traditional break to the Democratic candidate, with 58% for Davis and 37% for Lungren. But Davis’ capture of 23% of Republican women voters--along with 17% of GOP men--showed that Davis has gained ground with his pitches on issues such as abortion rights, gun control and education.

Equally important to Davis’ chances of success is his relative strength among white voters, who are more than three-quarters of the likely California voters. There, he has fought Lungren to a draw, with 47% to the attorney general’s 48%.

Blacks, Latinos Supporting Davis

Among other groups, Davis’ strong showing is more predictable. He attracted more than seven out of 10 blacks and Latinos who are likely voters. The latter showing, if replicated on election day, would be a blow to Lungren, who has spent far more time courting Latinos than any recent Republican nominee.

If Lungren has been less than successful in pleading his case to moderates, he has also failed to nail down sufficient support in the conservative bastions of the state.

In the Central Valley, where Republicans generally count on big leads to offset Democratic gains in urban areas, Lungren was only slightly ahead, 51%-46%. He led in the predictably Republican counties surrounding Los Angeles, but was losing in suburban and rural Northern California, 61%-34%.

Davis was leading in the usual Democratic strongholds of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area by better than 2-1.

Men Under 46 Favoring Lungren

Lungren had few strong areas, demographically speaking. He won the support of three-quarters of Republicans and conservatives, but could muster only 67% of those who voted for Republican Pete Wilson in 1994.

He won among those who made more than $60,000 a year, but lost among those who made less. He won among men age 46 and under, 51%-44%, but lost older men and all women.

Overall, Lungren’s supporters said they sided with him because he is a Republican, because he is not Davis, and because he opposes abortion rights. The first two of those answers are typically given when voters have only a glancing attachment to the candidate.

“Lungren is not coming across,” said Pinkus. “When they don’t know what the candidate thinks, they fall back on the tried and true.”

And even abortion, as an issue, benefits Davis. Sixty-one percent of likely voters said that Davis’ support of abortion rights was more in keeping with their views than Lungren’s opposition. Only 35% said they hold Lungren’s view.

More important for its potential impact, 33% of voters said they were more likely to cast ballots for Davis because of his abortion views, while a lesser 22% said they would be less likely. Conversely, 35% said they would be less likely to vote for Lungren because of his views, whereas 25% said they were more likely.

The bipartisan nature of Davis’ support was somewhat evident on abortion. Seventeen percent of GOP women said Davis’ abortion stance made them more likely to vote for him, though 40% said it made them less likely. Among moderate Republicans, there was a clear advantage, with 27% more likely and 16% less likely.

As for the other issues that have dominated this campaign and that generally move voters, the advantage went to Davis.

On the subject of education, consistently the most important issue to Californians this year, Davis was seen as the most capable candidate, with 52% to Lungren’s 35%. Even moderate Republicans gave a slight nod to Davis, 44%-41%.

When it came to the economy, Davis prevailed as well, 50%-36%.

On the issue of crime, which Lungren as the incumbent Republican attorney general should own, he was only eking out an edge. He was considered most capable by 45% to Davis’ 41%. Even 35% of moderate Republicans gave the issue to Davis, probably because of his sharp attacks on Lungren’s handling of the state’s assault weapons ban.

Lungren did carry one issue--the death penalty, on which he has exhausted millions of dollars in advertising. Voters gave him the edge, 54%-20%.

On a trio of personal issues, Davis led across the board. By a margin of 41%-29%, likely voters considered him the more honest. They said that he shares more of their values, 47%-39%, and by a 49%-38% gap found Davis to have the best leadership qualities.

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Governor’s Race

If the election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote: Dan Lungren or Gray Davis?

Davis: 53%

Lungren: 42%

Other/Don’t know: 5%

Note: Among likely voters

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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Leaning Toward Davis

Among likely voters, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis has a comfortable lead over Republican Dan Lungren. Swing voters (moderates and independents) may be one of the reasons for Davis’ lead.

Some demographics make a difference:

*--*

Davis Lungren Independents/Declined to state 55% 43% Moderates 71% 22% Men 49% 47% Women 58% 37% Democratic men 86% 10% Democratic women 86% 11% Republican men 17% 81% Republican women 23% 68% Liberal Democrats 90% 8% Moderate Democrats 80% 14% Moderate Republicans 45% 44% Conservative Republicans 12% 86%

*--*

*

Who would do the better job of handling these issues?

*--*

Education Crime California’s Enforcing the economy death penalty Lungren 35% 45% 36% 54% Davis 52% 41% 50% 20%

*--*

*

Which candidate . . . .

Shares your values

Davis: 47%

Lungren: 39%

*

Has more honesty and integrity

Davis: 41%

Lungren: 29%

*

Gray Davis believes it is the right of every woman to decide whether to have an abortion. Dan Lungren is against abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or if the mother’s life is in danger. Which of the candidates’ views comes closer to your view?

Lungren: 35%

Davis: 61%

*

Does (Davis’/Lungren’s) position on abortion make you more likely or less likely to vote for him for governor, or does it have no effect on your vote?

*--*

Davis Lungren More likely 33% 25% Less likely 22% 35% No effect 43% 37%

*--*

Notes: All results are among likely voters. Numbers may not total 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,449 California registered voters, including 883 voters deemed most likely to vote, by telephone Oct. 17-21. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for likely voters, it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asian Americans were interviewed and included in the sample, there were not enough of this group to break out separately.