Valley’s Recovery Is Called Strong, Broad

Assembling the pieces of a complex economic puzzle, a study to be released this week paints a picture of a San Fernando Valley region in a recovery that is surprisingly quick, impressively strong and hearteningly broad.

Bolstered by more than 585,000 private sector jobs that generate an annual payroll of nearly $19 billion, the region has shaken off many of the ill effects of the 1990s recession and the 1994 Northridge earthquake, according to an inaugural report on the Valley economy by a Cal State Northridge research center.

Using data collected from more than a dozen public agencies and private groups, university researchers have produced a detailed picture of a predominantly service-based economy, dominated by the entertainment industry.

The report, which took two years to complete and cost $15,000, is expected to serve as a baseline to chart Valley development through the 21st century. It is based on data collected well before the recent downturn in markets in Asia and elsewhere.

As regions within Los Angeles County compete to attract new businesses, the report by the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center is expected to introduce potential new firms to the technology-heavy neighborhoods that stretch from Calabasas in the west to Glendale in the east, and north of the Santa Monica Mountains to Sylmar.

“It’s hard to get good information by sub-area,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist with the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. Kyser said he is helping the San Gabriel Valley compile a similar report.

“The sub-areas are looking for data to help define themselves, to tell people what’s going on there. Any time anyone does anything like this, it’s a major contribution,” Kyser said.

The 64-page report, funded in part by corporate sponsors--the ARCO Foundation, Arthur Andersen LLP, the Voit Companies, the Los Angeles Times Valley Edition, Carole and Lodwrick M. Cook and Carolyn and Sanford P. Paris--takes an especially close look at entertainment, retailing and tourism. These three industries, the data show, are driving the Valley’s resurgence.

Using midyear 1997 data from the state’s Employment Development Department, the report lists 107,728 retail workers and 258,500 workers in the service sector, which ranges from motion picture production to data-processing. State statistics show that retail and service make up nearly two-thirds of all jobs in the Valley region, slightly higher than the 56% figure countywide.

Manufacturing in the region accounts for about 89,000 jobs.

Motion picture production and services makes up the region’s single largest industry--with an average monthly employment of 61,620, according to data from the third quarter of 1997. An additional 9,871 workers in the producer/entertainer category gives the region a total of 71,491 entertainment workers, earning payroll checks valued at $846.16 million.

The number of retail and service jobs is on the rise, while jobs in manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate--which often pay more--are falling.

And although such trends often do not bode well for an area’s future economic health, Kyser said the presence of the motion picture industry and computer software production--high-paying service jobs--will help blunt the effect of the decline in local manufacturing.

“Motion picture and TV jobs in Los Angeles County are paying [on average] $19.12 and hour,” Kyser said. “That’s not too shabby.”

He also said the West Valley’s burgeoning high-tech corridor will bring a new manufacturing surge to the region.

Overall, the report’s author concludes, the region is on the mend.

“If you look at everything together, the residential housing market, occupancy rates . . . construction permit data, there is lots of evidence that the Valley is recovering,” said Shirley Svorny, director of the Economic Research Center, an arm of CSUN’s College of Business Administration and Economics. “For me this has been an eye-opener.”

In one of the few downbeat notes, the report uses data from the Los Angeles Police Department to show that the Valley, which contains about 34% of the population of Los Angeles, accounts for a growing share of reported crimes in the city: rising from about 28% in 1991 to just over 30% last year.

Cmdr. Ronald Bergmann of the LAPD’s Valley Bureau said he could not comment on the report, which will be released Wednesday. But he said overall crime in the Valley has dropped, as it has throughout Los Angeles and the rest of the nation.

Svorny and William R. Hosek, dean of the CSUN business school, acknowledged that the new report will very likely be closely examined by secession-minded Valley residents for its wealth of local data.

Both professors stressed that politics played no role in the creation of the report.

“As far as we’re concerned, we’re generating data for the Valley and officially could not care less about secession or what have you,” Hosek said. “People have the data and they can prove whatever point they want to prove.”

University officials said they hope that over time, the center can expand to produce data to help local economists predict economic growth.

Hosek said some of the information in the report will be updated quarterly and made available over the World Wide Web.

“Over time,” Svorny said, “if we keep this up, in 10 years it will look really nice.”

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Jobs in the San Fernando Valley

The San Fernando Valley region, bolstered by increases in both private sector employment and home prices, is in the midst of an economic turnaround, a new report from Cal State Northridge confirms. And although manufacturing jobs have decreased, many jobs in the entertainment and high-tech fields have been gained.

Employment in the San Fernando Valley (Year ending 2nd quarter 1997)

Services*: 44%

Other: 5%

Construction: 4%

Manufacturing: 15%

Wholesale Trade: 6%

Retail Trade: 18%

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate: 8%

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San Fernando Valley Private Sector Jobs (In Thousands)

* Includes entertainment industry

Source: San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center