Accord in Congo Still Possible, Experts Say

The collapse of recent efforts by neighbors of Congo to secure a peace agreement between President Laurent Kabila and rebels campaigning for his ouster has delayed but not crushed chances for a diplomatic settlement of the crisis in the Central African nation, analysts say.

Hundreds of soldiers and thousands of civilians have died in the Congolese conflict, which started in early August when the rebels launched their campaign to unseat Kabila. Since then, the capital, Kinshasa, has been plagued by shortages of food and other supplies.

Although civil war seems likely to continue for a protracted period in Africa’s third-largest nation--and the country’s unofficial partitioning appears inevitable if a stalemate ensues--observers say that none of the region’s nations can afford long-term involvement in Congo’s war, either politically or economically.

The eventual decline of the current enthusiasm of Congo’s neighbors to back either Kabila or his antagonists in what has become one of the region’s biggest security threats will ultimately force the two factions to face each other at the negotiating table and end the conflict, analysts forecast.

Four attempts by Angola, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Uganda, Rwanda and Zambia--a neutral power in the conflict--have failed to bring peace to Congo, but diplomatic efforts are scheduled to resume today as the annual Southern African Development Community summit continues in the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius.

“As the war grinds on and it continues to affect several countries, it will create momentum for a political settlement,” said Salih Booker, director of the African studies program at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations. Military backing from Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia, as well as an appeal to nationalist sentiments, has helped win Kabila a new lease on his political life. The rebels, meanwhile, have gained sympathy from Uganda and Rwanda, though both these countries deny providing military support to Kabila’s opponents.

Emboldened by the support of his neighboring allies, Kabila has pledged to take the war to the doorstep of the rebels, who are primarily in the country’s east.

But analysts say that Angola, militarily Kabila’s strongest supporter, is primarily interested in sealing its borders with Congo--in the south--to guerrillas of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or UNITA.

“The Angolans are the strategic key to the whole thing,” Booker said. “But I don’t believe [they] have the stomach or the commitment to take the war that far.”

At the same time, the rebels--an alliance of disgruntled government soldiers led primarily by ethnic Tutsis from eastern Congo--have vowed never to relinquish the mineral-rich territories they have captured, or give up their war effort, unless Kabila agrees to meet and talk with them directly.

However, analysts say that, like Kabila, the rebels could not sustain the conflict without outside help.

Uganda acknowledges that it has troops at certain bases inside Congo. Their sole purpose, it says, is to guard against insurgents attacking Uganda’s western territories. But Rwanda insists that it has not had a single soldier on Congolese soil since July, when Kabila expelled the remainder of the Rwandan troops who last year helped propel him to power.

Observers say that economic constraints, internal security concerns and the fact that engaging Congo in war would mean incurring the wrath of its allies in the region are strong deterrents to any long-term involvement by cash-strapped Rwanda in its neighbor’s conflict.

“No country can stay focused on its domestic agenda if it is dealing with problems [outside],” said Paulette Nowden, assistant director of African Studies at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

But Rwandan officials have stressed that they reserve the right to intervene in Congo, particularly as a means of securing their borders and preventing a wide-scale massacre of ethnic Tutsis as a result of a seemingly successful anti-Rwanda campaign endorsed by the Congolese government.

There have also been reports that Kabila has joined forces with, and is helping to arm, Rwandan extremist militias who participated in the 1994 slaughter of more than 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus in their country. These militias have pledged to continue the slaughter.

“In the event that peaceful means fail, as long as the problems of Congo spill over to us, we are not going to rule out intervention in Congo to solve our problems,” said Wilson Rutayisire, director of Rwanda’s National Information Office.

Emmanuel Gasana, a diplomatic advisor to Rwandan Vice President and Defense Minister Paul Kagame, has supported that position but said last week: “A peaceful solution is our first option; a diplomatic solution is our first option.”

Observers say the only way to guarantee such an outcome to the conflict is to invite all the parties involved to the negotiating table. The rebels have so far been prevented from talking directly to Congolese government officials because Kabila consistently refuses to acknowledge an internal rebellion and therefore meet with any rebel leader.

“If you want to have security in your country, you have to sit down and talk to those who are opposing you,” said Joseph Bideri, an advisor to Rwandan President Pasteur Bizimungu.

“It’s impossible to broker a peace agreement without all parties involved,” agreed Nowden of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Eventually, you have to get to a point where Kabila and the rebels will have to negotiate directly . . . to negotiate a compromise that both sides can live with.”

The rebels say Kabila has failed to implement democratic reforms and has instead run a corrupt and nepotistic regime, banning political parties and failing to respect human rights.

“The root of the problem is . . . Kabila failed to manage Congo,” said Rutayisire, the Rwandan information director. “He thought he could manage Congo with his small family from Katanga [Kabila’s home province].”

A sound program for economic reform in Congo--formerly called Zaire and devastated by three decades of mismanagement and graft under the late dictator Mobutu Sese Seko--is a key ingredient for any peace settlement, analysts say.

And Kabila might also have to accept a partial breakup of Congo by allowing large swaths of the east, currently under rebel control, to have greater autonomy.

Observed Nowden: “The rebels are looking for a more active and inclusive political process. [Kabila] could extend an olive branch by allowing other political parties to flourish.”