First Lady Plays Coy as She Explores N.Y. Senate Race

When her husband ran in the New York presidential primary seven years ago, Hillary Rodham Clinton learned firsthand the political perils of shooting from the lip in the Empire State.

“Well Shut My Mouth” blared the Daily News front page, the day after Clinton admitted she had erred in making a casual reference to alleged peccadilloes by President Bush. The lesson seemed to haunt her for the duration of the campaign.

Now, as she explores a run for the U.S. Senate from New York, the first lady seems determined to keep her mouth shut when it comes to her long-range plans. But as she swept through town this week on an intense, two-day trip that resembled a campaign swing, she learned yet another lesson of local politics: Playing hard to get is easy, but it doesn’t get you anywhere.

“The reporter in me is dying to know--are you running for the Senate?” asked Daily News editor Debby Krenek, at a glittering forum for women in media that Clinton attended this week. The first lady smiled graciously and said nothing.

“I’m so honored you’ve come here today,” said NBC “Today” show host Katie Couric, after Clinton presented her with an award at the media gala. “Especially since you took time off from apartment hunting in New York.” The crowd roared with laughter, but once more the first lady fell silent.

“Have you set a date by which you’ll decide?” shouted New York reporters at a rare press conference that Clinton held at the United Nations, after announcing plans to send more relief to Kosovo refugees. Again, she smiled and did not answer.

Playing coy might make sense for a candidate ahead in the polls. Indeed, the election to fill the New York seat being vacated by Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan is 19 months away. Yet the first lady, who enjoyed a 12-point lead over New York’s GOP Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in January public opinion surveys, can no longer afford such luxuries. As she continues to say little about her future, she is beginning to slip badly in the polls.

According to a New York State survey released Monday, the first lady now holds only a one-point lead over Giuliani, and 52% of those surveyed say she shouldn’t enter what is expected to be a rough-and-tumble contest. Perhaps most tellingly, 46% said they were bothered by the fact that she is not a New York resident.

Each Poll Triggers Major Speculation

Neither Clinton nor Giuliani is officially a candidate, yet their hypothetical matchup has drawn nationwide attention and is already being billed by political consultants as a clash that might rival the 2000 presidential race for drama. Each poll taken triggers major media speculation, and the mayor has seized on data suggesting that voters see him, and not Clinton, as being more in tune with local needs.

“The whole carpetbagger issue . . . from my political ear . . . is a very big issue outside the city of New York,” Giuliani said at a Monday press conference, vowing to keep focusing on the issue. “I have people coming up to me, saying to me--and not just Republicans--why don’t you go run in Arkansas?”

As Clinton barnstormed from one event to the next this week, even her strongest allies were concerned by the carpetbagger question--if only for how it would affect her political chances in a race against the formidable and combative Giuliani.

“It troubles me, sure,” said Phyllis Meerewood, a businesswoman who came to hear Clinton speak Tuesday at the inaugural meeting of the Long Island Women’s Agenda, a large group of influential community and business leaders. “I think the world of her, but the carpetbagger issue might hurt.”

Clinton Hopes to Deflect Criticism

Nearby, businesswoman Paula Atlas dismissed the question, saying if Robert F. Kennedy could win a New York Senate seat in 1964 without being a resident, so could the first lady.

But she conceded: “We New Yorkers are not an easy group, and this problem will keep coming up. She had better be prepared.”

Hoping to deflect such criticism, Clinton spoke with reporters at the U.N. Monday to discuss the lure of a Senate campaign--an issue she had not yet explored in New York.

“Well, I love New York, I always have,” she said, framing her answer carefully. Using the pronoun “we” in referring to New Yorkers, she added: “I have always been very excited by the dynamism of the people here, and the real cutting-edge approach to a lot of what I consider to be important challenges that we face, and to me that’s a real attraction.”

Unaccustomed to such a response from Clinton, who only rarely grants media interviews, the press corps seemed momentarily caught off guard. But by day’s end, the first lady was getting a rough welcome from Big Apple journalists.

“Your Slip is Showing” cracked the New York Post’s front page, citing Clinton’s declining poll numbers. Her answer to the “Why New York?” question was “too low-key,” groused a local TV news broadcast. And if the first lady needed any reminders, actress Meryl Streep brought up a touchy subject when she mentioned at Monday’s media luncheon that she had once made a movie about river rafting down 200 miles of white water, then turned to Clinton and joked: “Not that Whitewater.”

Few doubt that Clinton will lack the money for a Senate race, because her political celebrity remains quite strong. But the slippage in recent polls suggest that voters have only just begun to focus on the preelection skirmishing--and both Giuliani and Clinton are burdened with political baggage.

The mayor, for example, has recently taken a public relations beating in New York; barely 40% approve of his handling of the tragic police shooting of Amadou Diallo, an unarmed West African immigrant who was shot 19 times by four white police officers, who mistook him for a serial rapist.

Outside New York City, however, Giuliani is running ahead of Hillary Clinton, and political experts are sharply divided over how the race will play out. Joseph Mercurio, who has run campaigns for the New York County Republican Party, believes Clinton’s aura will fade the more voters examiner her.

“Her numbers will continue to go down,” he said. “She’s well-liked here, but compared to Giuliani, who has a record of accomplishment, she will never look quite as compelling.”

Nonsense, says Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic consultant who ran her husband’s New York campaign in the 1992 presidential election. The first lady’s problem, he suggests, is that she has played the waiting game for too long, and needs to make a decision--soon.

“The longer she stays out of the race and the more people see her, the more her numbers will go down,” he predicted. “New Yorkers are impatient, and they’re growing kind of wary in the waiting. After a while, expectations are not enough.”