Crisis in Kosovo Gives McCain’s Presidential Bid a Boost

Back in February, John Hawkins joined virtually all of his Republican colleagues in the South Carolina House of Representatives and signed a letter urging Texas Gov. George W. Bush to seek the GOP presidential nomination.

But after watching his party’s multitude of White House contenders respond to the crisis in Kosovo, Hawkins has decided to endorse Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), not Bush.

“The more I have learned about Sen. McCain, the more I have liked him,” says Hawkins, a second-term legislator from Spartanburg. “His forthright statement on the Kosovo crisis has really had a big impact on me; he shows the qualities of a leader and the qualities of a president.”

Hawkins’ shift in allegiance might represent only the popping of a rivet on the battleship of endorsements that Bush is assembling. But it’s a measure of how McCain’s unwavering and relentless call for NATO to escalate its military campaign in Kosovo has energized his presidential campaign.

Another straw in the same wind: A poll released Wednesday in New Hampshire, site of the critical first primary next year, shows McCain moving up to third place--still far behind Bush but passing former Vice President Dan Quayle and narrowing the gap with the second-place contender, Elizabeth Hanford Dole. “McCain has set himself apart by seeming to stand for a principle and also by being ubiquitous,” says independent pollster John Zogby, who conducted the survey.

No candidate seeking the presidency in either party has seized any issue this year as aggressively as McCain has moved to place his stamp on the Kosovo debate. Since the fighting began last month, he has been an inescapable presence on television with a simple message: The U.S. must do whatever it takes “to win the conflict,” even if that requires the use of ground troops to expel the Serbian forces from Kosovo.

That posture isn’t without political risk for McCain. Many Republicans remain dubious of even the existing U.S. role in the conflict, much less an escalation to the use of ground troops.

That was evident Tuesday when McCain and a small bipartisan group of allies offered a Senate resolution to authorize President Clinton “to use all necessary force” to win the war. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), who last month opposed launching the air war, immediately said he had no plans to allow a vote on the resolution.

Similar ambivalence is evident among rank-and-file Republicans. While a Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey last week showed a majority of Republicans support the air war, the GOP partisans were evenly divided on whether the U.S. should eventually send ground troops to Kosovo if the aerial bombardment proves ineffective. When asked if ground troops should be sent into combat immediately, three-fifths of Republicans said no.

Such doubts may ultimately present a challenge for McCain, particularly if NATO eventually introduces ground troops and the military personnel suffer significant casualties. But for now, many Republicans appear to be reacting less to McCain’s conclusion than to the decisiveness he’s displayed in reaching it.

At a party dinner in Hanover, N.H., on Sunday, state GOP chairman Stephen Duprey said he noticed local Republicans who opposed the war putting on “McCain 2000” stickers after the senator spoke. “They say, ‘I like the guy because he’s bedrock integrity and he’s straight at you,’ ” Duprey says.

The war appears to have benefited McCain’s campaign in at least three distinct respects. Most obviously, it’s allowed him to greatly increase his visibility, even as the media’s focus on the conflict has made it more difficult for most of his rivals to attract attention at all. From February to mid-April, McCain’s name identification among Republicans increased by 10 percentage points, according to Gallup surveys.

Secondly, the war has shifted the issue focus toward foreign policy and defense--terrain where McCain’s background as a Navy pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam give him an advantage.

Finally, his confident, unhesitating response to the crisis made him look prepared for the presidency at a time when several of his rivals (particularly Bush) initially appeared tentative.

“Of all the potential candidates for president, he has shown the characteristics of a commander in chief,” says South Carolina House Speaker Pro Tem Terry Haskins, who, like Hawkins, has endorsed McCain.

Even with this boost, McCain still distantly trails Bush in national polls, fund-raising and institutional support. Strategists at other campaigns question whether his plan to essentially skip the Iowa caucus, while focusing on the two key primary states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, is viable. His stand on some issues, such as support for campaign finance reform and a hike in tobacco taxes to discourage youth smoking, still rankles many conservative activists.

But McCain can point to some tangible signs of progress in recent weeks. His aides say his direct mail fund-raising has improved. And with his face constantly on television, he seems to be finding it easier to get his foot in the door in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Haskins expects to soon announce endorsements of McCain from “somewhere in the teens” among South Carolina state Republican lawmakers, even though 58 of the 64 GOP representatives signed the earlier letter urging Bush to run. McCain’s campaign is launching a similar push in New Hampshire.

“They are taking advantage of his high profile in the media because of Kosovo,” says Barbara Russell, co-chairwoman of Bush’s New Hampshire effort.

Zogby, the independent pollster, says he thinks the eventual strength of that higher profile isn’t even fully reflected in his survey, which showed McCain at 9% among New Hampshire Republicans, with Dole at 15% and Bush at 38%. In a second question, when voters were given a brief description of the candidates’ backgrounds, without their name, McCain trailed only Bush, and then by just 19% to 24%.

“The words ‘war hero’ and ‘independent of party establishment’ seem to be catching on for McCain,” says Zogby. “He’s gone from an asterisk to first tier.”