Forbes Aims to Be Last Conservative Standing

Running in third place among the Republican presidential candidates, publisher Steve Forbes is hoping for a “breakthrough” in two key early contests that will establish him as the leading conservative alternative to front-runner George W. Bush.

Forbes said he needs a strong second-place finish in the Jan. 24 Iowa caucuses and then a respectable third place--behind Texas Gov. Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona--a week later in the New Hampshire primary.

That should shake things up, says Forbes--forcing other conservatives to drop out of the race and ending the popular notion that Bush’s nomination is inevitable.

“Why are people supporting George Bush?” Forbes said in an interview this week as he campaigned in Michigan. “People are there not because of a message or an agenda but because he can win. Once that’s pierced, it’s wide open. Boom. It’s gone.”

Forbes’ support in national polls still ranks in single digits. And he has watched much of the media attention recently focus on his leading rivals, McCain and Bush. But with a campaign financed from his personal fortune, Forbes also said a modest start is all he needs to stay in the race and hope for an opportunity to emerge down the road.

“I’ve made it clear that we’ll have the resources to get the message out,” he said. “I think that’s what worries the Bush people. Even if we have a disappointing contest in some of the early ones, we’re still in it.”

Forbes’ campaign was encouraged recently by the endorsement of 30 top conservative leaders, including former Ronald Reagan advisor Lyn Nofziger and Californians John Herrington, ex-chairman of the state GOP, and Bruce Herschensohn, a 1992 U.S. Senate candidate.

Campaign officials hope they will relay an important message that conservative voters can be most effective by uniting behind a single candidate--and that should be Forbes. Now the conservative vote is largely scattered among Forbes, ex-Reagan advisor Gary Bauer, Sen. Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, former ambassador Alan Keyes and Bush.

McCain is staking his campaign on an appeal to centrist Republican and independent voters.

“We need a breakthrough--not necessarily a win,” Forbes said. “The key is if you come out of Iowa credible, people don’t feel they’re throwing away their vote by supporting you. . . . Suddenly, you have a whole different dynamic. That’s what worries the Bush people.”

Forbes is hoping some of his conservative rivals will drop out of the race if he can beat them in the early contests.

Bauer reportedly told New Hampshire reporters earlier this week that he will quit if he does not finish among the top three candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire. A Bauer campaign aide said, however, that the campaign is confident it will do well.

“We have a fighting chance to overtake Forbes in Iowa for second place,” said Jeff Bell, a senior consultant.

Forbes said McCain’s rise in New Hampshire--where polls show he is tied or close behind Bush--will help “pierce the inevitability” of a Bush victory. Once Bush appears vulnerable, Forbes believes voters will pay more attention to the positions of other candidates.

Many of the conservatives supporting Forbes say they believe the publisher is the conservative with the best shot at victory.

Morton Blackwell, a former Reagan White House liaison to conservative groups, said Forbes is “fully committed on the conservative issues and is one of two candidates who have a chance to win the nomination.”

Forbes has already spent more than $20 million on the race this year, and he said he will continue to heavily invest his personal fortune in reaching voters with his message opposing abortion, overhauling Social Security and establishing a 17% flat tax.

Forbes campaign manager Bill Dal Col said the campaign already has 162 paid workers with offices in 16 states. In Iowa alone, Forbes has signed up 8,000 caucus captains to help turn out voters, Dal Col said.

“If you don’t have that set up, you can’t deliver,” he said.

Forbes spent time this week in Michigan, which will host a closely watched primary Feb. 22--just three weeks after the New Hampshire vote and about two weeks before nearly a dozen states cast ballots on March 7.

At a chili dinner at the Elks Lodge in Traverse City, Forbes won roaring applause when he asked the crowd of 400: “Why is it a constitutional offense to post the Ten Commandments, the underpinning of Western Civilization, in a classroom, but you can allow [Adolf Hitler’s book] ‘Mein Kampf’ into the schools?

“That’s where I believe in school choice. Parents should be able to make the choice.”

The audience cheered. A man asked: Are you committed to making sure only pro-life Supreme Court justices are chosen under your watch?

“I’ve made it clear that if you’re appointing a judge for life, the judge should believe in the sanctity of life,” Forbes said as the crowd clapped. “In Washington, they call it a litmus test. I stand by it.”

Alan Cropsey, a former activist for Christian conservative Pat Robertson’s 1987 presidential campaign, said such views persuaded him to switch his backing from Bauer to Forbes after the October Christian Coalition gathering in Washington.

“We’re getting more of a feeling people are coalescing behind Steve Forbes,” Cropsey said. “He’s thoughtful and he has the wherewithal to keep going in the long run.”