Crossover Support Lifts Bush, Dole as Favorites for 2000

Two potential presidential contenders who are not yet candidates, George W. Bush and Elizabeth Hanford Dole, lead a pack of hopefuls bidding for the Republican nomination in 2000, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll.

Even as they ponder whether to run, both lead Vice President Al Gore--the overwhelming Democratic favorite--in potential trial heats that found broad crossover support for Bush and Dole among Democrats and independents.

With the impeachment trial of President Clinton in full swing in the Senate, the survey also offered mixed news for Republicans who might fear a backlash from efforts to oust the popular incumbent.

A majority of Americans said a vote either for or against impeachment would have no impact on their choices for the Senate in 2000; it was about the same for House races. At the same time, most Americans said Clinton’s impeachment should not be an issue in the presidential campaign.

However, by nearly 2 to 1, those who do wish to send a message to Congress said they were less likely to reelect a House member who voted to impeach Clinton, which could be significant, as Republicans cling to a mere six-seat majority in the House.

With the first votes of the 2000 primary season more than a year away, and the November election 21 months away, the national survey of presidential preferences tended to reward name recognition over any other candidate quality.

Texas Gov. Bush, the son of the former president, led the Republican pack with 39% support. Dole, the retired head of the Red Cross and wife of 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole, had 25% support.

The only other candidate with double-digit backing, at 17%, was former Vice President Dan Quayle, who entered the race last month.

On the Democratic side, Gore had 52% support to 17% for Jesse Jackson, a two-time presidential candidate; 11% for House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri; 7% for former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley; and 4% for Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. Of the Democrats, only Gore and Bradley are officially entered.

In 2000 trial heats among registered voters, Bush led Gore 57% to 39%, and Dole beat the vice president 50% to 42%.

Not surprisingly, Gore was by far the best known of the trio, all of whom enjoyed positive ratings.

By 49% to 39%, a plurality of voters has a good impression of Gore, who has defended Clinton in the Monica S. Lewinsky matter. Only 12% had no opinion of Gore.

At the same time, however, Gore has emerged as a deeply polarizing figure, notwithstanding his rather drab and stodgy public image.

Although 80% of Democratic voters and 44% of independents view Gore favorably, 73% of Republicans have an unfavorable impression of the vice president. He drew only 10% of Republican support in a trial heat against Bush, and a mere 6% GOP backing against Dole.

In contrast, Bush and Dole enjoyed strongly favorable impressions, with plenty of bipartisan goodwill--at least among those who know them. It may help as well that their views concerning any number of potentially controversial issues are little known to national audiences, a phenomenon that may be called the “Colin Powell effect.” The retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who has assiduously steered clear of partisan controversy while pushing apolitical issues such as volunteerism, has consistently demonstrated broad appeal in polls.

Sixty percent of voters had a favorable impression of Bush, with only 8% unfavorable; about a third had no opinion of the Texas governor. Fifty-two percent had a favorable impression of Dole and 13% unfavorable, with 35% either unaware of the former Red Cross chief or expressing no opinion.

Although a potentially rough campaign lies ahead, Bush and Dole showed potential strength as general-election candidates.

In contrast to Gore’s meager crossover support, Bush managed to draw 68% backing from among independent voters and 23% from Democrats in a trial matchup with the vice president, replicating his success in Texas at building a broad coalition across party lines. Even 36% of self-described liberals backed Bush against Gore.

For her part, Dole managed to draw 53% of independents and 20% of Democrats in a matchup with Gore, along with 33% of liberals. There was no distinct gender advantage, however, for the only woman candidate known as a potential 2000 candidate. In fact, Bush actually ran stronger among women (57% to 37% for Gore) than did Dole (47% to 43% for the vice president).

As for impeachment, although the political world seems obsessed with Clinton’s fate, most Americans seem to give it far less weight.

Only 5% of voters said it should be the most important issue in the 2000 presidential race. Twenty-nine percent said it should be an issue, but not the most important one, and 64% said it should not be an issue at all.

Opinions differed somewhat among partisans, however. Seventy-eight percent of Democratic voters said impeachment should have no place in the 2000 campaign, along with 61% of independents. But half of Republicans said impeachment should be an issue, with 12% calling it the most important issue.

As for congressional contests, 52% of voters said a vote to convict Clinton and remove him from office would have no effect on who they back for the U.S. Senate next year. Twenty-six percent said they would be less likely to support a senator who votes to convict the president and 17% said they would be more likely to support such a candidate.

Fifty-four percent said a vote against Clinton’s removal would have no effect on their decision. Twenty-two percent said they would be more likely to support a senator who votes against removal from office, and 20% were less likely to do so.

In House races, 49% of the electorate said a vote to impeach Clinton would have no effect on how they vote next year. But 31% said they would be less likely to reelect a House member who voted to impeach, and 16% said they would be more likely to vote for such a person.

Fifty-five percent said a vote against impeachment would have no bearing on their vote in next year’s House races. Twenty percent were more likely to reelect a member who voted against impeachment and 19% were less likely to do so.

The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, interviewed 960 adults nationwide, including 817 registered voters, Wednesday through Friday. Among registered voters, 203 were self-described Republicans and 298 were self-described Democrats. For registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for Democrats and Republicans it is 6 points.

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The 2000 Presidential Poll

With little more than a year to go before the first presidential primary, Vice President Al Gore is clearly the front-runner in the Democratic primary, while Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Elizabeth Hanford Dole lead the pack in the Republican primary.

If the 2000 Republican primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today, for which of the following candidates would you vote? (AMONG SELF-DESCRIBED REPUBLICAN REGISTERED VOTERS)

George W. Bush: 39%

Elizabeth Hanford Dole: 25%

Dan Quayle: 17%

John McCain: 4%

Steve Forbes: 4%

Pete Wilson: 2%

Lamar Alexander: 1%

John R. Kasich: 1%

Gary Bauer: 1%

Bob Smith: -

Don’t know: 6%

If the 2000 Democratic primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today, for which of the following candidates would you vote? (AMONG SELF-DESCRIBED DEMOCRATIC REGISTERED VOTERS)

Al Gore: 52%

Jesse Jackson: 17%

Richard A. Gephardt: 11%

Bill Bradley: 7%

John F. Kerry: 4%

Don’t know: 9%

If the 2000 general election for president were being held today, for which of the following candidates would you vote?

(AMONG ALL REGISTERED VOTERS)

Bush: 57%

Gore: 39%

Don’t know: 4%

Dole: 50%

Gore: 42%

Don’t know: 8%

Notes: Results include those who said they were “leaning” toward a candidate. “ -- “ indicates less than 0.5%.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 960 adults nationwide, including 817 registered voters, by telephone Wednesday through Friday; among registered voters, 203 were self-described Republicans and 298 self-described Democrats. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for Republicans and for Democrats it is 6 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.