Allied Strikes Set Back Iraq Defenses, U.S. Says

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has begun withdrawing air-defense batteries, artillery, troops and other materiel from his country’s northern and southern “no-fly” zones in the face of steady strikes by American and British warplanes, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Although the withdrawals may be temporary, U.S. officials pointed to the regrouping as evidence of the effectiveness of a six-week campaign in which allied warplanes have inflicted substantial damage on Iraqi air defenses without losing any aircraft or pilots.

Some U.S. officials speculate that Hussein may be changing his strategy out of fear that the seemingly one-sided fight could demoralize the armed forces that are the foundation of his strength.

“He’s been demonstrating to his constituencies his weakness, not his strength,” a senior Clinton administration official said.

Hussein began challenging jets patrolling the Western-imposed no-fly zones after the U.S. and Britain launched attacks on his country in mid-December. Iraqi fighter planes have repeatedly flown into the proscribed zones and occasionally fired at allied warplanes. Antiaircraft missile batteries have “locked” their radar on the U.S. and British jets, often a prelude to an attack.

In response, the allied air armada has struck about 40 surface-to-air missile batteries, knocking out about 20% of Hussein’s long-range SAM installations, according to U.S. defense officials.

By that reckoning, the intermittent skirmishing has been more punishing than Operation Desert Fox, the December assault that targeted 34 air-defense batteries and struck about two-thirds of them.

President Clinton gave military commanders latitude last month to respond with broad counterattacks on Hussein’s air defenses any time Iraqi planes or radar make threatening moves.

The no-fly zones were imposed after the 1991 Persian Gulf War to shield the Kurdish minority in the north and dissident Shiites in the south from attack.

A defense official said Hussein has been moving equipment around rapidly, following a long-established pattern intended to confuse his adversaries.

He has apparently moved some equipment into the zones, which are south of the 33rd parallel and north of the 36th parallel. But, “overall, there’s a net reduction,” the official said. “He’s had only two choices: Move it or lose it.”

It is next to impossible to assess how many casualties the Iraqis have suffered in the course of the air-defense strikes, but analysts say troops, as well as crews, often work near the equipment.

A United Nations report obtained by Associated Press on Thursday said two missiles that hit civilian areas in southern Iraq on Jan. 25 killed 17 people--including 10 children--and injured 100 others.

Some signs suggest that Hussein doesn’t intend to cease his provocations right away.

Although bad weather has made flying difficult in the region for several days, two Iraqi MIG aircraft were spotted briefly in the southern zone Thursday morning. As recently as Monday, Hussein offered a bounty of $14,000 for the downing of an allied warplane and a smaller amount for the capture of a pilot.

Iraqi officials Thursday appeared to acknowledge their concerns about the effectiveness of their air-defense network by announcing, through the official Iraqi News Agency, that Hussein was meeting with top officials to discuss improvements, the Reuters news service reported.

The limitations of Hussein’s air-defense equipment and personnel have been underscored over the past couple of years by the Iraqi military’s failure to counter raids by neighboring Iran’s antiquated air force against opposition groups based inside Iraq.

“These should have been easy to stop, but Iraq couldn’t,” said Kenneth M. Pollack, an Iraq expert at the National Defense University in Washington. “Saddam has seen his air-defense forces diminish dramatically, so at some point he calculated that he’s going to have to rebuild the entire air-defense system.”

Hussein appears to have several reasons to continue his provocations.

First, provoking U.S. and British warplanes is a means of challenging the principle behind the two no-fly zones. The zones are not enshrined in U.N. resolutions and, therefore, are vulnerable to outside criticism, even among Security Council members.

Second, Iraq’s strategy allows Hussein to engage in a war of attrition with the United States that could end up being costly to Washington as well, possibly by losing a pilot over Iraq or by looking like a bully overstepping its mandate.

Third, the unbalanced exchanges keep world attention focused on the issue of Iraq. In many ways, the worst thing for Hussein is to fall out of the news and thus give an edge to the long-term U.S. strategy of “containment-plus.”

U.S. officials say Hussein’s decision to regroup and reposition some of his air defenses reflects the biggest limitation on his strategy--military morale.

“There’s clearly been a lot of dismay and disaffection among his supporters in the military, who feel as if they’re being asked to implement hopeless missions and fruitlessly squander military lives in the process,” Pollack said.

U.S. officials say Hussein may have overplayed his hand.

“He’s provided an opportunity for us to pick apart his military machine,” a senior administration official said.

A new U.S. assessment of the situation in Iraq concludes that Hussein has repeatedly miscalculated in recent weeks. “He’s missed one opportunity after another,” the official said.

Since Operation Desert Fox, Hussein has alienated the Arab world by calling for the ouster of key leaders. His provocations have also kept at a distance the new Turkish government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit.

Despite some reservations in the region, the U.S. feels that it has greater backing for its strategy among Mideast leaders than at any time since the Gulf War.

During her recent trip to the region, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met with allies who were “fully supportive of getting rid of Saddam,” the official said.