Most Americans Approve of Senate Impeachment Vote

Breathing an almost audible sigh of relief, the vast majority of Americans approve of the Senate’s decision Friday not to remove President Clinton from office and oppose any action that would extend the controversy further, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Large majorities of those polled said that they do not want impeachment to be an issue in the presidential campaign of 2000 and insisted that independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr should not indict Clinton. A plurality of those polled said the Senate should not even censure Clinton--an idea that attracted support from half of Americans in a Times Poll only last month.

A single word encapsulates the attitudes found in the poll: “Enough!”

In the face of that powerful urge to move forward, the poll suggests that both the institutional and political fallout of the scandal may take some time to coalesce fully. Although a little more than two-thirds of those surveyed said Clinton’s misconduct had not caused them to lose respect for the office of the presidency, in fact, separate questions showed confidence in the presidency and Congress at a lower level than when the impeachment crisis began.

The political picture was similarly complex. On the one hand, 68% of Americans said they do not want the issue to be raised in the 2000 presidential campaign, and about half said that it will not directly affect their vote for Congress.

But the poll also showed that assessments of both parties have deteriorated through this long confrontation, with congressional Republicans emerging from the fight with such a negative image that their hold on a majority could be threatened if they cannot repair the damage by 2000. Though a large minority of the electorate is not yet ready to commit itself, a plurality of those polled said that they prefer Democrats to control Congress after the 2000 election, rather than the Republicans who now hold majorities in both chambers.

The Times Poll, supervised by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 664 adults on Friday after the Senate vote. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The desire not to look back ripples powerfully through the poll. Just 38% of those surveyed said that Congress should vote to censure Clinton; 47% said it should not. Support for censure is now somewhat greater among Republicans than Democrats or independents, but it draws support from a majority of no group. In January’s poll, not quite half of all Americans--and significant majorities of both independents and Republicans--backed censure.

Partisan Divide on Indictment Issue

Americans are even more resistant to the idea of Starr seeking an indictment against Clinton. A little more than one-fourth of those polled said that Starr should indict Clinton now and try him after he leaves office. And 12% said the independent counsel should indict the president after his term. But the clear majority--57%--said Starr should not indict Clinton at all.

This question sharply divides along partisan lines: 81% of Democrats said they oppose indictment and 65% of Republicans support it. Independents are more narrowly split, with 53% opposing indictment and 43% supporting it.

That same basic partisan division--only with independents leaning closer to the Democrats--is apparent on the poll’s central question: whether the Senate made the right decision in voting to acquit Clinton. Overall, by a 65% to 30% margin, those surveyed approve of the Senate decision.

Those numbers are striking in two respects. One is their consistency: Since the impeachment process began last fall, about two-thirds of Americans have consistently opposed Clinton’s removal--a finding that suggests public attitudes were set early in the controversy and wavered little.

Also striking is the intensity of the partisan divide, which has defined public reactions to the scandal for 13 months. While 84% of Democrats and 70% of independents said that the Senate made the right decision, 68% of rank-and-file Republicans said that Clinton should have been removed.

Though many Washington observers believe that the Senate handled itself in a more dignified and responsible manner than the House, the final act of the impeachment drama seemed to leave the country in a sour mood--rather like an elegant final speech in a play that already had gone on too long. Almost everyone involved in the confrontation--from Clinton and Vice President Al Gore to both parties in Congress--received less favorable ratings in this poll than they did in January.

Half of those surveyed said that they do not think the trial will have any lasting effect on the country. But, of those who do, three times as many said that the impact will be negative as positive.

Just 37% of those polled said that they approved of the Senate’s handling of the trial, while 56% disapproved. Interestingly, those numbers varied little by party--which suggests that rank-and-file Republicans who favored conviction were left as disgruntled as Democrats who opposed it. Roughly equal numbers opposed the Senate’s decision to conduct its final deliberations behind closed doors.

And the more collegial tone of the Senate debate did nothing to erase public suspicions about GOP motivations in the case. More than three in five of those polled said that Republicans pursued impeachment “primarily because they wanted to hurt President Clinton politically.” Only one-third said that the GOP’s motivation was concern about the impact of “Clinton’s actions on the legal and moral fabric of the country.”

Even after a vote in which 50 of the 55 Senate Republicans sought to remove him from office, Clinton continues to enjoy robust job approval ratings. Overall, 64% of respondents said that they approve of his performance.

Clinton held a commanding 51%-27% lead over congressional Republicans when those polled were asked which side has better ideas for solving the problems facing the country. Similarly, two-thirds said they believe that Clinton can govern effectively in his final two years.

Assessments of the president on other personal characteristics has changed little since January: a slightly higher percentage believe that he has the honesty and integrity to serve as president (up from 46% last month to 50% now). The share of Americans who believe that he shares their moral values has ticked up (albeit only from 18% in January to 24% now). And the number who believe that he cares about people like them has declined slightly (from 59% last month to 55% now.)

On the broadest measure of personal attitudes, 50% of those surveyed said that they have a favorable impression of Clinton. That’s down 7 percentage points since January--and part of an across-the-board decline in favorability ratings for key participants in and around the conflict over the last month.

For instance, Gore still has a net positive favorable rating, but not by much: only 37% of those polled Friday said they had a favorable impression of him while 30% view him unfavorably. Democrats in Congress have sunk slightly below the waterline: 41% view them favorably, and 42% unfavorably.

Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, have plummeted: Just 32% of those surveyed said that they view them favorably, while 46% have an unfavorable impression. Like the ratings for Gore and congressional Democrats, that is a noticeable decline since January.

Perhaps reflecting their broader desire to bury the issue, poll respondents displayed less animosity toward either side when asked how the impeachment deliberations would affect their votes in 2000.

Most of these questions came out essentially as a wash. For instance, 24% of registered voters polled said they would be more likely to vote for their senator if he or she supported conviction, while 22% said they would be less likely. (On the other hand, independent voters, the key swing group, said they would be less likely, by a 6-percentage point margin, to support a senator who voted for conviction.)

Republicans were more likely to say they would vote against a senator who opposed conviction (with 45% expressing that view) than Democrats were to say they would oppose a senator who supported it (34%).

Attitudes toward the House were just as narrowly split: 25% of registered voters polled said that they would be more likely to vote for a representative who had supported impeachment, while 24% said they would be less likely. About half of voters said that the decision would not affect their ballots in 2000 for either the House or Senate.

58% Say Gore Action Won’t Affect Vote

The balance tilted slightly against Gore when voters were asked whether his support for Clinton through this scandal would affect their decision in 2000: 17% said that Gore’s actions made them more likely to support him if he seeks the presidency next year, 22% said less and 58% said there would be no effect. (Among independents the divide was 16% more likely, 20% less likely, 60% no effect.)

Yet it remains difficult to predict the scandal’s ultimate impact on 2000--especially on congressional races--from these broad national numbers. One reason is that the issue may play a larger role (in either direction) in specific states and congressional districts. It could affect recruiting of candidates and fund-raising in certain areas. And even though those surveyed said that they do not intend to vote specifically because of the issue, attitudes toward the impeachment process appear to be affecting broader attitudes toward the parties.

That was apparent when the poll asked voters which party they want to control Congress after the next election. Overall, 42% of those surveyed said that they want Democrats in control, while 37% want Republicans and one-fifth said they were not ready to choose a side. (Among independents, the Democratic advantage doubled to 10 percentage points.)

Even though most voters said that impeachment would not influence their vote in 2000, those who opposed conviction prefer a Democratic majority in Congress by 56% to 18%. Those who supported conviction said that they prefer a Republican majority by 76% to 9%.

Those numbers are not just a reflection of the fact that most Democrats opposed removing Clinton, while most Republicans supported his ouster. Independents who opposed conviction said that they now strongly prefer that Democrats control Congress, while independents who supported Clinton’s removal prefer that Republicans remain in charge.

Like the early test of congressional sentiment, another question about the presidency in 2000 discerned a slight tilt toward the Democrats--but with an even larger share of voters unwilling to take sides now. In most recent polls--including The Times survey late last month--Gore has trailed the front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2000, Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

But when asked in this poll which party they would prefer to win the White House in 2000, 38% named the Democrats and 28% the Republicans, while 34% said that they are undecided or that it would depend on the candidates. Independents now give a 6-point advantage to the Democrats but, more important, 46% said they are not yet ready to choose.

On a final point, the poll offered a similar wait-and-see message. Even though two-thirds of those polled said that the crisis did not reduce their respect for the office of the presidency, just 43% of respondents said that they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the presidency as an institution. Only about one-fifth of those polled said that they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the institution of Congress.

More Coverage

* OPINION--Who can save the GOP? What will history say? Answers to these questions in a special Post-Impeachment Opinion section.Section M

* CLINTON--President is busy on day after with Kosovo and Mexico.A24

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Post-Impeachment Times Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Senate handled the impeachment trial?

Disapprove: 56%

Approve: 37%

Don’t know: 7%

*

Did the Senate do the right thing in not convicting and removing President Clinton from office?

Right thing: 65%

Wrong thing: 30%

Don’t know: 5%

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Post-Impeachment Times Poll

Most Americans say it will be difficult for Clinton and congressional Republicans to work together over the next two years. Democrats edge Republicans as best presidential choice for the good of the country in 2000, though a third of the public says it depends or they haven’t made up their mind.

Was the Senate impeachment trial of President Clinton a good thing or a bad thing for the country, or did it have no effect one way or the other?

Good thing: 25%

Bad thing: 48%

No effect: 22%

Don’t know: 5%

*

What kind of lasting effect, if any, will the Senate impeachment trial have on the country?

Negative effect: 34%

Positive effect: 11%

No effect: 50%

Don’t know: 5%

*

Now that the Senate impeachment trial is over, will it be easy or difficult for the Republicans in Congress and the president to work together in a bipartisan way?

Easy: 21%

Difficult: 71%

No difference (volunteered): 4%

Don’t know: 4%

*

Would the country be better off if a Democrat or a Republican were elected president in the 2000 election?

A Democrat: 38%

A Republican: 28%

Depends on the candidates (volunteered): 19%

Don’t know: 15%

*

Would the country be better off if the Democrats or the Republicans controlled a majority in Congress after the 2000 elections?

Democrats: 41%

Republicans: 36%

Don’t know: 23%

*

How much confidence do you have in the office of the presidency?

A great deal: 22%

Quite a lot: 21%

Some: 32%

Very little: 16%

None at all: 7%

Don’t know: 2%

*

How much confidence do you have in Congress?

A great deal: 8%

Quite a lot: 14%

Some: 48%

Very little: 23%

None at all: 5%

Don’t know: 2%

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 664 adults nationwide, including 589 registered voters, by telephone on Friday.

Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

*

Times Poll results are also available at

https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

Source: L.A. Times Poll