What Was Once a Long, Cold Season Heats Up for Movies

On Friday three films open that were “held over” from 1998: Universal’s techno sci-fi thriller, “Virus,” with scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis; DreamWorks’ psychological horror flick from Neil Jordan, “In Dreams,” with Annette Bening and Robert Downey Jr.; and MGM’s romantic drama “At First Sight,” with Val Kilmer and Mira Sorvino.

A few weeks later comes another ’98 holdover, Paramount’s action drama “Payback,” starring Mel Gibson, which debuts Feb. 12.

All four are being released during what used to be considered a box office no-man’s-land, a period that extends roughly from New Year’s to Valentine’s Day. Often these were movies that had been delayed for one reason or another and were being “dumped” by their studios.

This year “Payback” and “Virus” stand out as the two releases creating the most industry buzz over delays. “Virus,” whose release date has been changed a number of times, won’t be screened for critics and the buzz on the film has not been good.

Meanwhile, reshoots on “Payback” sparked rumors and some negative press of a dispute between Gibson and the film’s director, Brian Helgeland, over final cut. Sources close to the film say that despite the reports of conflict the latest version of the film is testing well with audiences.

But whether those films turn out to be winners or losers, both the studios and exhibitors say that January and February have become fertile box office territory.

“It’s true that this used to be the dumping period when studios knew they had a bad film or one that wouldn’t hold up against tough competition in Christmas or summer,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations. “In part, that reason still holds true but not in the way you may think.

“Yes, it does get a film out of the crunch but it also takes advantage of post-holiday, which ironically has January and early February becoming very smart play dates. . . . If you look at some recent past periods, the results just prove you can open a film now and have a hit. The business is no longer seasonal. It really has become a 365-day-a-year business.”

The track record shows that films released in this period may not become blockbusters, but they can do solid business. According to Exhibitor Relations, some of the top January openers include “12 Monkeys,” which opened Jan. 5, 1996, to $13.8 million and went on to gross $57.1 million domestically; “Higher Learning,” which opened Jan. 11, 1995, to $13.2 million and grossed $38.1 million; and “Beverly Hills Ninja,” which opened Jan. 17, 1997, to $12.2 million and grossed $31.4 million.

Of course, the biggest opener of all time in this period was a re-release, “Star Wars: Special Edition,” which opened Jan. 31, 1997, with a $35.9-million opening; it wound up grossing $138.2 million domestically. As for early February, the standout was “Ace Ventura: Pet Detective,” which opened Feb. 4, 1994, to $12.1 million and ended up grossing more than $72 million domestically.

Ironically, the films that opened in limited release in Los Angeles and New York to meet the qualification deadline as 1998 Oscar contenders will be opening more widely this month or February (among them Disney’s “Rushmore” and Fox’s “The Thin Red Line”) to take advantage of what is becoming a new semi-peak period. “That’s the twist,” noted Dergarabedian. “It gives these delayed films more competition.”

The story behind moving the opening dates of some of the January ’99 films shows how volatile and fluid the timing of a release date can be. In the case of “Virus,” for example, Exhibitor Relations’ release schedule showed the film opening as early as the winter of ’97 before bouncing around to various dates in ‘98--including a summer release--before Universal settled on the Jan. 15, 1999, release date.

But Nikki Rocco, head of Universal distribution, said the film was never scheduled for a 1997 release or a summer ’98 release.

“We never announced a summer date and it would have never been released before ’98 because it was in production,” Rocco said. “The only change was when we moved it out of October to January to take advantage of the Martin Luther King weekend.” Rocco noted that releasing the film in October would have meant “Virus” would be butting up against another Curtis screamfest, “Halloween: H20.”

MGM’s “At First Sight” was bumped from Oct. 23 to Nov. 20 of 1998, then to Feb. 5 of this year, then back to Jan. 15, according to Exhibitor Relations.

“It’s true we did look at October, but we didn’t want to go up against ‘Meet Joe Black’ [another romantic drama], so we moved,” said Larry Gleason, MGM’s president of distribution. “The holiday was tough because we would have been competing in the same genre against Julia Roberts and Susan Sarandon [‘Stepmom’] so we headed for Valentine’s Day, since this is a woman’s movie. Then we were facing Kevin Costner in “Message in a Bottle” on Feb. 12. Our best option was to head back to January and that’s where it rests.”

While Exhibitor Relations shows Paramount’s “Payback” bouncing from Aug. 7, 1998, to fall 1998 to Feb. 12 of this year and finally settling on Feb. 5, the studio said it only seriously considered two play dates, both in February. At one point it thought of a summer release but nixed that option when Warner Bros. decided to release “Lethal Weapon 4,” also starring Gibson.

The studio declined comment on reports that there were serious problems between “Payback’s” director and Gibson. Sources said after Helgeland finished his cut of the film, some test screenings scored poorly and both Gibson and the studio asked Helgeland--a first-time director and Oscar winner (along with Curtis Hanson, for the adapted screenplay of “L.A. Confidential”)--to consider some changes. He opted to defer any changes to Gibson and Paramount.

Sources close to both Gibson and Helgeland say reports that Helgeland was asked to leave the picture were untrue and that in fact all parties involved wanted him to make the changes. He remains as the credited director of the film.

“Whatever the reason, this is a highly anticipated film,” said Dergarabedian. “And judging by the past record of other pictures which opened during this period, ‘Payback,’ like the rest, should turn up some interesting results.”