Early Birds Get Political Worm in ’00

On New Year’s Day, when most folks were focused on 1999, Brian Kennedy was casting his sights ahead to 2000.

Kennedy is no millennium kook; he is a political aide to Republican presidential hopeful Lamar Alexander. And for Kennedy and others like him, the chime of midnight was as distinctive as the jingle of a cash register--and as loud and clear as a starting bell.

Welcome to Campaign 2000. Entry fee: $55,000 a day.

A serious run for president will likely cost $20 million or so, which for practical reasons must be raised almost entirely in 1999. And so Alexander, after two years of unofficial campaigning that followed his 1996 run, on Friday became the latest in a flurry of candidates to lay the legal groundwork for a White House bid by establishing a campaign exploratory committee.

In the two weeks bracketing New Year’s Day, nearly a half-dozen candidates or possible candidates took the first steps toward running, underscoring how a drastically compressed political calendar, and its fund-raising demands, are driving this presidential contest.

“We’re talking about a five- or six-week campaign at the most,” Kennedy said of the rapid-fire regimen beginning in February 2000 with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

Which means the run-up in 1999--and the capacity to raise about $55,000 a day from now until Dec. 31--may prove more important than ever.

“The old rules are gone,” said Tad Devine, a veteran Democratic strategist, speaking of the days in the ‘70s and ‘80s when the nominating season unfolded with all the languor of winter melting into spring. Back then, a candidate like Jimmy Carter in 1976 or Gary Hart in 1984 could use a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire as a springboard, gathering momentum and, especially, money to propel them through the contests in the weeks and months that followed.

But in 2000, “anyone who wants to be competitive is going to have to have their money banked by the end of this year,” said Dan Schnur, a California Republican strategist.

“There’s no time to go from zero-to-60 the day after New Hampshire,” he explained. “The calendar just doesn’t allow you enough time to raise the money you’re going to need to be competitive in California and New York and other large states.”

Iowa Kicks Off Fast-Track Process

Blink and you might miss the whole thing.

Iowa will kick off the nominating process with its caucuses in mid-February, followed by the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary. Then, after a series of smallish contests, voters in 25 states--including California, Texas, New York and New Jersey--will cast their ballots over an eight-day period in early to mid-March.

After that, for all intents and purposes, the fight for the Democratic and Republican nominations will likely be over.

“The process moves in such unprecedented lightning fashion,” said Devine, “that anyone who hasn’t established [himself or herself] at the front end is probably not going to make it.”

For that reason, such likely candidates as Alexander, Vice President Al Gore, former Vice President Dan Quayle and magazine publisher Steve Forbes (another 1996 presidential aspirant) have been effectively campaigning for the last two years.

The coming of the new year provided an additional incentive for candidates to establish exploratory committees--as of Jan. 1, the federal government began matching campaign contributions up to $250. Along with Alexander and Gore, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Bob Smith (R-N.H.) and former Sen. Bill Bradley (D-N.J.) have all taken that formal step.

For Republicans, 2000 offers the tantalizing prospect of the most wide-open race in a generation or more--theoretically, anyway.

“There’s no natural heir to the throne,” said Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster and veteran of Alexander’s 1996 presidential run. “No Bob Dole or George Bush or Ronald Reagan that dominates the landscape.”

The closest thing to an odds-on favorite is Bush’s son, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who has been riding high in national polls, in no small part because of his recognizable surname and landslide November reelection. But Bush is relatively untested--as rivals are quick to note--and not even certain he will run, according to those familiar with the governor’s thinking. A Bush decision is not expected until late spring.

Meantime, Elizabeth Hanford Dole, wife of the 1996 GOP nominee and a political celebrity in her own right, announced last week she would step down as president of the Red Cross to mull a possible 2000 campaign.

Others considering the race include former California Gov. Pete Wilson; Rep. John R. Kasich (R-Ohio); two-time hopeful Patrick J. Buchanan, a conservative commentator; and Gary Bauer, head of the Family Research Council, a social conservative group.

Despite this potentially large cast of contenders, the GOP contest may not be as competitive as it superficially seems.

“What it really boils down to is the very few candidates who can raise the $20 million in ‘99,” said Jan van Lohuizen, a GOP pollster with ties to Gov. Bush. Given the steep entry fee, “we may see the field narrowing rather quickly.”

Alone among the likely contenders, Forbes can write a personal check for $20 million, guaranteeing his staying power.

Others considered likely to meet the ante are Bush, given his Texas-size base of support and national contacts, and perhaps Dole, though some question her fund-raising draw now that her husband “is just another Washington lobbyist,” as one Republican strategist put it, and no longer the Senate GOP leader. Alexander, drawing on his 1996 supporters, also has built a credible fund-raising base.

The rest of the GOP field is likely to fight for scraps. “You have two things that are pretty contradictory,” observed Haley Barbour, former chairman of the Republican National Committee. “You have a nomination fight that seems wide open and a nominating process, really a de facto national primary, that hurts the little guy.”

On the Democratic side, they are all little guys (even the 6-foot, 5-inch Bradley) when stacked against Gore. Although he can’t write a personal check like Forbes, Gore is the one other candidate guaranteed to raise whatever it takes to lock down his party’s nomination. (Doing so, however, under federal limits of $1,000 per individual contribution and $5,000 from political action committees will still require considerable effort.)

“As the front-runner, he’s in as good a shape as anybody’s ever seen,” said Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist and advisor to House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). Once considered Gore’s strongest rival, Gephardt has lately signaled his plans to sit out the presidential campaign, though he has yet to completely foreclose a White House bid.

Along with Bradley, who plans to formally announce his candidacy by spring, other Democrats contemplating a race are Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

No Thing Is a Sure Thing in Politics

An obvious question--given Gore’s enormous advantages in fund-raising, name recognition, association with a popular (if scandal-scarred) president and strong institutional support within the Democratic Party--is why anyone would even try to knock him off. The short answer: You never can tell.

“Our party’s nominating process has continually shown an almost built-in need for an insurgent challenge to the established order,” said Carrick, citing a recent history that includes Carter’s triumph over better-known rivals in 1976, his intraparty fight four years later against Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts and the intense challenge former Vice President Walter F. Mondale faced from Hart in 1984 before finally securing the Democratic nomination.

“As soon as someone appears to have things locked up, someone else rises up as the alternative,” Carrick said.

On the other hand, Hart and Kennedy both fell short--in part for lack of money.

“Front-runners usually do stumble,” said Charles Cook, an independent Washington political analyst. “The question is whether anyone will have the financial firepower to take advantage this time.”