December Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.2%
Ventura County ended 1998 with its strongest economy in more than a decade, with the jobless rate dropping to 5.2% in December as local industries continued to flourish amid a resilient and fertile national economy.
According to a report released Friday by the state’s Employment Development Department, retail trade firms, local government and construction propelled local job growth, creating more than 1,600 jobs last month.
“December is when we can look back on the year and see how things went and looking back it was incredible,” said economist Mark Schniepp, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project. “Back in January [1998] we predicted that Ventura County was going to have a good year, but what’s happened has been amazing. . . . It surpassed all of our predictions and expectations.”
The report, a preliminary analysis of job growth prepared monthly by the state, showed that retail trade led growth and created about 1,100 jobs in December, followed by local government, which increased its payrolls by 500, and the construction industry, which added another 300 positions because of a surge in development.
In the more volatile month-to-month comparisons, unemployment fell in December by 0.7% from November 1998, with all job growth occurring in nonfarm industries.
More telling, economists and analysts said, are the yearly comparisons that showed unemployment fell by 0.6%, with most new jobs created in the manufacturing and service sectors.
“Through the year, job growth has remained very strong in sectors that are strong and stable,” said Dee Johnson, labor market analyst from the Employment Development Department. “Through the year Ventura County created about 9,400 jobs, which is good news leading into this year.”
With 390,000 employed residents, Ventura County ranks 20th among the state’s 58 counties in unemployment.
There are now about 20,100 county residents who are unemployed, down from 22,200 in December 1997 when the jobless rate stood at 5.8%.
Most growth last year occurred in the service industry, which added 3,300 jobs. Government added 1,300. Finance and real estate employment increased by 800 jobs and manufacturing added 700.
Manufacturing, however, has suffered the past three months because of turmoil in overseas markets.
Although manufacturing bolstered its work force considerably in the early part of the year, payrolls were cut by nearly 1% in December as foreign demand began to fall.
Economists agree 1998 was an exceptional and surprising year, considering the momentous uncertainty surrounding the global economy.
Even as financial crises in Asia, South America and Russia sent shivers through the world markets, the U.S. economy remained buoyant.
“What’s happened is amazing considering all the uncertainty out there right now,” said Schniepp, who had predicted the local job market would grow by 7,400 jobs in 1998. “There’s the unsteady overseas markets, political problems and even Y2K, but in spite of all that the county’s and country’s economy has picked up an amazing amount of momentum.”
Economists predict the county’s labor market will remain strong through mid-1999.
But they said it may start to soften after midyear because of financial weakness overseas.
‘My guess is that there will be some slowing, but it’s not going to be that great or across the board,” Schniepp said. “Some sectors, like manufacturing, are going to feel it more than others. . . . Altogether, though, I think it will remain relatively strong, but not as strong as 1998.”
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Ventura County Jobless Rate
Dec. 1998: 5.2%
Source: California Employment Development Department
