Drop in Welfare Rolls Shows Slowing

The number of people on welfare has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years, President Clinton will announce today. But the new figures also show that the dramatic declines of recent years are beginning to slow in certain states.

The president will also offer a package of programs designed to help more people get jobs and to encourage businesses to continue hiring from welfare rolls.

Nationally, about 8 million people remained on welfare at the end of September, down 44% from 14.3 million in 1994. California had 656,608 families on welfare in September, down 22% since January 1993.

But state officials and academics alike have long cautioned that, at some point, nearly all the people who can move off welfare with relative ease will have left. That will leave those with deeper problems, such as substance abuse, violence and little education.

“With welfare reform, the more you succeed, the harder the job becomes,” said Don Winstead, who heads Florida’s welfare reform program.

But Clinton hopes to make that job easier. Administration officials said he will announce proposals included in the budget he will submit to Congress next month, including:

* $1 billion to help 200,000 long-term welfare recipients in high-poverty areas move to work. It’s the continuation of a 2-year-old program, with a new requirement that 20% be used for low-income fathers.

* $430 million for 75,000 housing vouchers that help people on welfare move closer to a new job.

* $150 million in transportation money to help people get to jobs, often in suburbs not served by public transportation.

* $530 million to extend the tax credit for businesses that hire people off welfare.

As in his State of the Union address, Clinton will also trumpet the falling welfare numbers.

But the figures show the drops in some states may have begun to slow in the final quarter of fiscal year 1998.