Bush Reports $36 Million as Receipts Soar

Texas Gov. George W. Bush reported a record-shattering $36.3 million in campaign receipts Wednesday, raising the question of whether the GOP contest is effectively over before a single vote has been cast.

No presidential candidate has ever raised so much money so fast, or left such a big pack of pursuers so far behind in the polls. As the ledger closed on the first six months of the year, Bush’s take was nearly double that of his 10 opponents combined, and almost triple the previous record set at a comparable period four years ago by 1996’s eventual Republican nominee, Bob Dole.

Indeed, Bush’s sum exceeded the $32 million Dole raised for his entire campaign--the previous record for the primary season.

Bush’s jaw-dropping performance--his reported contributions soared by more than $13 million overnight and literally grew by the hour--not only smashed records, but also long-held notions of how presidential campaigns are supposed to work.

“Typically, what happens is a front-runner builds a huge lead, then stumbles,” said political analyst Charles Cook. “The question is always whether they have the money and momentum to get the nomination anyway. But . . . it seems like George W. can have a pretty big stumble and still have a reasonable expectation of winning the nomination.”

History suggests the difficulty his rivals now face denying Bush the nomination. Since 1976, when the current campaign finance system took effect, the nominations of the two major parties have always gone to the candidate who raised the most money in the year leading up to the election.

“It’s over,” an advisor to one struggling GOP hopeful lamented. “There’s too much institutional support behind Bush. Too many people now have financial and psychological investments in his campaign. If he stumbles, they will not allow him to fail.” Campaigning a second day in California, Bush declared himself “humbled by the response” to his candidacy and “amazed at the outpouring of support.”

His campaign boasted of contributions from more than 75,000 individuals across the country--with an average donation of $480--a remarkable showing for a candidate making his first run at national office and actively soliciting contributions for only the last four months.

Analysts said the unprecedented outpouring reflects a deep hunger within the Republican Party for a winner (or, at least, a perceived winner) and the desire to avoid a potentially bruising primary--even though many of Bush’s policy positions are still vague at best.

“Winning is the thing people are talking about most,” said Scott Reed, who ran Dole’s 1996 campaign. “It’s not ideology. It’s not issues. It’s winning.”

Bush strongly hinted Wednesday that he may ultimately forgo millions of dollars in federal election funds--along with the state spending caps attached--in favor of conducting a more unfettered campaign. That could prove particularly important in Iowa and New Hampshire, where candidates who accept so-called matching funds agree to curb their spending in those small but politically important states.

After touring a charter elementary school in Los Angeles, Bush was asked if the new totals moved him closer to a decision to bypass matching funds. Grinning, he said: “I think this helps make the decision easier.”

Money talks--in fact, in politics it speaks volumes--so the rest of the Republican field had to virtually shout Wednesday to be heard.

Trying her best, Elizabeth Hanford Dole appeared on NBC’s “Today” show to say her months-long exploratory effort, which has raised roughly $3.3 million, would soon become a full-fledged presidential campaign. “I’m happy to be able to announce today that in the fall, early fall, I will declare formally my candidacy,” the former American Red Cross president said. “I’m going to be in the race. I’m in it to win.”

Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, with about $6 million raised, used a high-profile speech in New Hampshire to criticize both major parties on his signature issue--cleaning up the campaign-finance system.

“I will call for the reform of our political system everywhere I go in this campaign,” McCain declared. “. . . Anyone who is satisfied with the status quo should vote for someone else. But anyone who believes that America is greater than the sum of its special interests should stand with me.”

The finance figures released Wednesday--estimates to be updated in the next two weeks--reflected the candidates’ fund-raising activities through the first six months of the year, a report required by the Federal Election Commission. As such, the totals represent a crucial early test of political strength.

Bush’s performance, subject to further upward revision, was simply stunning--all the more so because the $23 million figure the campaign released Tuesday proved wildly understated.

“It’s the equivalent of hitting 90 home runs in a season--it’s off the charts,” said Larry Makinson of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan political research group. “Six months before a single voter has weighed in, this nomination may have been decided not by voters but by funders.”

Others insisted that Bush--still largely untested on the national scene--will inevitably face a challenge at some point in the primary process. The only question is, where and when?

“Bush is formidable but not inevitable,” said Marshall Wittmann, an analyst with the conservative Heritage Foundation. “Clearly, he is the Goliath of this race. We’ll see if there is a David out there.”

William Kristol, a GOP pundit, noted that the nominating process amounts to a series of contests, not a national referendum. That provides an opportunity for someone to emerge as a challenger to Bush by performing well in one of the early contests.

The first key test of Bush’s dominance will come Aug. 14 at a straw poll in Ames, Iowa, an exercise in turning out support that has tripped up previous front-runners.

But Wednesday--for one day, anyway--all anyone could talk about was Bush’s money.

For some, words simply failed.

In Vice President Al Gore’s corner, the first reaction of one senior political advisor was several seconds of silence. Finally, he composed himself and said, “We have a long way to go” before the election.

Gore raised $18.5 million, roughly half the sum Bush collected. His sole rival for the Democratic nomination, former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, reported raising a higher than expected $11.5 million during the first six months of the year.

Some Bush rivals, striving to make the best of the situation, tried turning his huge haul to their advantage. Strategists for publisher Steve Forbes, who is personally financing most of his campaign, portrayed Bush as a puppet of the Washington establishment.

“We will do what it takes financially to challenge the lobbyist-lawyer-special-interest dollars that Bush is raising all over the place,” said Greg Mueller, a spokesman for the Forbes campaign.

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Times political writer Cathleen Decker in Los Angeles and staff writer Edwin Chen in Washington contributed to this story.

Hear Times’ political writer Mark Z. Barabak analyze the presidential campaign money race on The Times’ Web site: https://www.latimes.com/money

* READY OR NOT? Despite the size of the George W. Bush juggernaut, he is still feeling his way. A3