With Diverse Coalition, Barak Faces Tough Battle in Getting Major Change

Ehud Barak, the former military commando who will be sworn in as prime minister of Israel next week after his May 17 landslide election, campaigned on a promise of change.

“Israel wants change,” was his slogan, the motto that filled airwaves and posters and undeniably helped catapult Barak to victory over beleaguered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Having finally wrestled together a coalition government that encompasses seven very different political parties, Barak is ready to take office. The question on the minds of most Israelis is exactly what kind of change they can expect.

For all the excitement and talk of a “new dawn” that Barak’s election triggered for many in Israel--and in Washington and the Arab world--the incoming prime minister will be forced to move cautiously and conservatively on issues of most importance to Israelis.

The configuration of his government augurs well for reviving peace talks with Israel’s most implacable Arab foe, Syria, and with the Palestinians. Any movement at all on talks, after months of stalemate, would constitute significant change.

But the character of the government does not inspire hope that divisive domestic issues, such as the role of religious law in society, will be resolved.

Danger of Infighting Balances Clout

The sheer size of the majority in parliament that Barak has put together gives him enormous clout. At the same time, the diversity of his coalition means infighting also could paralyze the government.

Barak succeeded in giving himself a comfortable cushion to govern by forging a coalition with 75 seats in the 120-member Knesset, or parliament. But 33 seats are held by ultra-Orthodox or right-wing parties. They will support Barak generally on defense matters, but there is absolutely no consensus on social reforms, democracy and civil rights.

The largest coalition member--after Barak’s own, much-reduced center-left Labor Party--is Shas. The fundamentalist ultra-Orthodox party represents Sephardic Jews of Middle Eastern or North African origin, and its leader was convicted in March on corruption charges.

“Shas is an important faction that represents a large sector,” Barak was quoted as saying after signing up the party to his government.

The only leftist faction in the coalition, the secular Meretz Party with 10 seats, is in an uproar over Shas’ inclusion. The middle-of-the-road Center Party, with six seats, finally agreed to join Thursday, after much internal debate over how much power it would get.

“It will be difficult for Barak to make big zigzags in policy, domestic or foreign, because there are groups within his own government with vested interest in continuation,” said Efraim Inbar, a security affairs expert at Tel Aviv’s Bar Ilan University. “People who expect much change will have to adjust their expectations.”

Desire to Expand Cabinet to 24

Barak also plans to quickly get Knesset approval to expand his Cabinet from 18 to 24 ministries as a way to further divvy up the spoils of government.

Shas was awarded four Cabinet posts with control over important aspects of Israeli daily life: the ministries of Health, Labor and Welfare, Infrastructure and Religious Affairs.

The Religious Affairs Ministry, with a $400-million budget, appoints rabbis, oversees rabbinical courts and has a say in who can be considered a Jew, with all the benefits those responsibilities carry.

Shas officials already are floating plans to funnel money into ultra-Orthodox medical facilities, which opponents fear will occur at the expense of an already-strapped health care system that now caters to all Israelis.

Diverting state money to Shas causes is precisely what got its leader, Aryeh Deri, in legal trouble. Deri was forced to step down before Shas would be allowed in Barak’s coalition, but he continues to wield influence over party members.

Israeli television reported Thursday that Shas also is claiming to have been promised control over a land distribution agency and that it will be allowed to renew crackdowns on businesses that open on the Sabbath.

A rabbi from another religious party will be named minister of culture, and David Levy, who served with little distinction as Netanyahu’s foreign minister for a time, said Thursday that he has been promised a return to that post by Barak.

The Housing Ministry and its budget of nearly $2 billion is being handed to the National Religious Party, a hawkish Orthodox Zionist faction that supports Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Palestinians and Washington have condemned a recent spate of illegal settlements as damaging to the peace process. Barak has said he will permit most settlements to remain untouched for now.

In his election campaign, Barak also pledged to clamp down on the number of exemptions from military service claimed by religious men studying in yeshivas. Secular Israelis considered the exemptions unfair, arguing that the yeshiva students evade serving the country and then become burdens on the state because the military exemption prevents students from working in regular jobs.

Instead of fulfilling his campaign pledge, Barak offered a compromise as a way to persuade Shas and another ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, to join the coalition. It only solves part of the problem, limiting military exemptions slightly, while it allows more of the students to join the work force and thus alleviate welfare costs to the state.

In a land deeply divided by disputes between secular and religious Jews, some Israelis are complaining that Barak has not reduced the influence of the ultra-Orthodox, as he campaigned to do, but has instead preserved the status quo. They accused Barak of caving in to the haredim, as the ultra-Orthodox are known.

“Do you truly believe that anything in matters of religion and state is going to change the next few years?” said Avraham Poraz, a Knesset member from the staunchly secular Shinui Party, which refused to join Barak’s coalition. “We all know that there will be no change, and this is what we cannot swallow.”

And political scientist and writer Asher Arian said, “Four years from now, we’ll look back and maybe see marginal changes in domestic issues, but major issues--what is the Jewish state? to whom is Jewish legitimacy granted? what do Jewish children learn in state-funded schools about democracy? what is the role of the Arab minority?--these issues will not be solved.

“They will be the big campaign issues of the year 2003 or 2004.”

Barak courted the haredim parties and others in the 15-party Knesset on the theory that the larger the number in the coalition, the less likely one faction can bring down the government.

By defusing the leverage of any one party, Barak can rule from a position of strength, take charge and assert control even over some of the more difficult domestic issues, analysts and his aides said. This way, he may in the end effect the change he promised.

“If he knows how to play one party against the other, he might be able to manage,” said Shmuel Sandler, a political analyst at Bar Ilan University. “He doesn’t have a strong coalition, but then he doesn’t have a strong opposition, either.”