Odds Are Long, but Bradley Can Put Up a Fight

The Democratic race for president is turning into something unexpected: a real race.

With his strong showing in the latest round of fund-raising, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey has asserted himself as something more than a mere trifle or a lanky campaign curiosity. The odds are still long for Bradley to seize the nomination from Vice President Al Gore--that would defy history--but he now boasts the financial resources to put up a vigorous fight.

That, in turn, could have a significant effect on the fall campaign, particularly if a tapped-out Gore faces a well-heeled, well-rested Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who shows every sign of romping to the GOP nomination and smashing fund-raising records in the process.

“At this point in the race, the name of the game is money, and $11.5 million makes Bradley a player,” said Jim Margolis, a Democratic consultant who is not committed to either candidate. “Not necessarily a winner, but a player.”

Bradley, who is Gore’s only opponent, reported raising $11.5 million through the first half of 1999. The sum is consistent with his goal of raising at least $20 million by year’s end, roughly the amount needed to sustain a campaign through the rapid-fire sequence of contests starting with the Iowa caucuses and culminating with New York and California primaries on March 7. More significant, that amount placed him within hailing distance of Gore, who reported $18.5 million in receipts.

“We’ve shown we can raise the funds we need to run a credible race,” said Anita Dunn, a Bradley strategist. “The fact is this is going to be a spirited contest--as we predicted all along.”

Many, however, were surprised at Bradley’s success. After all, the vice president has been running for years and has all the perks and powers of the White House at his disposal. Moreover, Gore is well ahead of Bradley in institutional endorsements from labor unions, elected Democratic leaders and the like.

“Bradley has greatly over-exceeded expectations,” said David Doak, a Democratic media strategist and another neutral bystander. Although Gore remains a strong favorite--no sitting vice president has ever sought his party’s nomination and been denied it since 1952--Bradley’s financial showing “foretells a longer rather than a shorter race,” Doak said.

“A lack of money is usually what dries up presidential insurgencies,” he noted. “As long as Bradley’s got the money, he can keep going.”

And that is precisely what concerns Gore supporters.

Publicly, the vice president’s camp professed not to worry. “I think we’re well on track,” said spokeswoman Kiki Moore, pointing out Gore’s substantial lead over Bradley in polls. “Our fund-raising is very strong.”

But privately, insiders acknowledged the latest financial reports carried a one-two punch. Not only does Gore face the prospect of a tougher-than-expected primary fight, he could also be in for a longer-than-anticipated general election battle against Bush--a battle waged at a considerable financial disadvantage.

The Republican front-runner raised an unprecedented $36.3 million in the first half of the year, roughly twice Gore’s total, and strongly hinted he will forego federal matching dollars, thus sparing himself any regulatory spending caps. Absent that ceiling, Bush could quickly wrap up the nomination and begin targeting key states he needs to carry in the general election.

“That’s the danger of Bradley being competitive to the point where we have to spend everything to win the nomination,” said one Gore insider. “I don’t think that will be the case, but obviously there’s the concern of what would happen if Bradley bleeds us dry.”

What might happen is suggested by the last presidential campaign, when former Sen. Bob Dole was forced to scrape by for months after capturing the GOP nomination. President Clinton spent millions of dollars of surplus funds airing a months-long blitz of unanswered attack ads. By the time Dole achieved financial parity (the nominees receive tens of millions of federal dollars at the close of their conventions), it was too late.

But to be more than just a Democratic spoiler, to seriously vie for the party’s nomination, strategists suggest Bradley must, in effect, start putting his mouth where his money is. Up to now, the former pro basketball star has been notably sketchy on all but a handful of issues as he travels the country on a sort of celebrity goodwill tour.

“He’s had the halo of being the alternative [to Gore], and one with some fame attached to him,” said Margolis. “This now goes to a different stage. If he’s going to be a competitor, he’s got to show he’s got game.”

Put another way, “He’s got to offer some overarching rationale for his candidacy,” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick. “Why should he be president? And, the corollary: Why shouldn’t Al Gore? I think he still has to make that case.”

In short, Bradley’s high dollar figure carries heightened expectations along with it, something his underdog campaign has avoided up to now. If there is some small consolation for the front-runner, it is that Bradley’s emergence as a more formidable foe could make a Gore triumph that much more meaningful.

“It’s going to make Al Gore’s victory in the primary worth something,” argued vice presidential pollster Paul Maslin. “To beat Bill Bradley--who’s raising serious money, who has celebrity and support within the party--that’s an achievement.”