Y2K as ‘Apocalypse’

How should cities and counties and towns prepare for a once-in-a-civilization event like the Year 2000 and its potential for computer and other mayhem. Orange County’s grand jury began its assessment of the county’s readiness last year. Ventura County’s approach: “The same advice we would give out to prepare for an earthquake, it’s almost mirrored advice for Y2K,” said Sandi Wells of the Ventura County Fire Department.

States, cities and other localities have pondered a number of Y2K nightmare scenarios, not all of them computer-related. But no city has gone so far into imagined and potentially unlikely mayhem as Los Angeles. Here is the well-beyond worst-case scenario, as planned for by the city government.

It starts in the afternoon with glitches and errors in the city’s new payroll system. Then the scenario imagines the theft of more than 1,000 large-caliber weapons and thousands of rounds of ammunition from gun stores and an armory. Panicked bank customers fight among themselves and vandalize automated teller machines when they run out of cash. Gasoline costs $2 a gallon and anxious motorists line up outside gas stations.

Renewed war in the Balkans forces military call-ups that deplete the California National Guard. Planners underestimate the turnout at the city’s millennial celebration events, and those left without tickets are getting drunk and rowdy on the street. It’s hot, and dry and Santa Ana winds fan blazes ignited by reckless millennium fireworks. Nothing similar is really expected to happen here, but it makes sense to consider all of the possibilities, however remote.

Significantly, the exercise did not include what many experts feared most: a widespread power outage. As a February report by the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem says, “Electrical power is the key to every other sector: the lights must stay on!” Belief in the survival of the local power system is based on two experiences in the 1990s. One was the relatively quick restoration of electrical systems after the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The other was a rapid recovery by the Department of Water and Power after a regional rolling blackout in 1997 that began with a Pacific Northwest heat wave.

What needs did this and other Los Angeles exercises identify? Most of the findings involved the need for additional training, including clarifying roles and improving the expertise of the city’s Emergency Operations Center staff. City computer servers have been tested with logic added to certain systems, notifying the computers to recognize dates from “00” to “25” as the years 2000 to 2025.

A Y2K-related test that sent millions of gallons of sewage into the Sepulveda Dam Recreation Area fueled a good decision to position employees in the field as “spotters” to immediately identify mishaps.

Primary Y2K emergency officials like Chief Administrative Analyst Bob Canfield and Information Technology Agency Executive Officer Frank Martinez say the lessons were learned. In the meantime, Southern Californians should heed the advice of that Ventura Fire Department official: Stay calm and prepare reasonably.