Unsound on the Mound

The Angels had decided earlier this decade to put more of a scouting emphasis on starting pitching, and with two first-round picks in 1992, what better way to restock a farm system that had produced quality arms the way the Sahara produces fruits and vegetables?

With the eighth pick that year, the Angels selected UCLA right-hander Pete Janicki, who broke his elbow 10 days after the draft, never reached the big leagues and was released in 1997.

Later that round, the Angels took Jeff Schmidt, a big right-hander who spent a few weeks in Anaheim in 1996 and was released in ’97.

DeShawn Warren, the Angels’ second-round pick in ‘92, had shoulder surgery in ’95 and never rose above Class A. Third-round pick Brian Powell didn’t sign with the Angels. He reached the big leagues with Detroit in ’98 and was traded to Houston this winter.

Fourth-round pick Shawn Holcomb blew out his elbow after four games and retired in ’95. Fifth-round pick Paxton Briley pitched in two minor league games in ‘92, sat out ’93 and was released in ’94.

That’s six picks in the first five rounds, all pitchers, all busts with the Angels. And that was only 1992.

The Angels have a Jeff Gordon-like track record when it comes to drafting and developing position players, a success rate reflected in their 1999 lineup: starters Tim Salmon, Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, Garret Anderson, Gary DiSarcina, Todd Greene and possible starter Troy Glaus are Angel products.

But when it comes to starting pitchers, the yellow caution flag flies.

Since Jim Abbott was selected in 1988, the Angels have drafted only one other pitcher who won 20 games for them--in a career, not a season--and that’s Jason Dickson (24-23).

The Angels chose 24 pitchers in the first five rounds of the draft from 1989 through ‘96, but only eight made it to Anaheim, and only four--Brian Anderson, Joe Grahe, Phil Leftwich and Jarrod Washburn--won more than a game.

Even one of the Angels’ biggest starting pitching success stories comes with an asterisk--Chuck Finley was actually drafted as a reliever in 1985 and didn’t start until 1987, his second year in the major leagues.

“It definitely would be nice,” said Bob Fontaine, Angel director of scouting and player personnel, “if you had a crystal ball.”

Is projecting pitchers that much more difficult than position players? Or is it mostly luck?

“I’ll tell you one thing,” said Duane Shaffer, Chicago White Sox scouting director, “it’s definitely not an exact science.”

In the early 1990s, Gary Ruby, a longtime minor league pitching coach with the Angels who is now coordinator of pitching instruction for Philadelphia, thought Angel starters were as good as any in the minor leagues.

“I thought Scott Lewis and Joe Grahe were great minor league pitchers,” Ruby said. “Phil Leftwich was very good, and Mark Holzemer and Andrew Lorraine had very high ceilings.”

But they barely made it past the chair moldings. Why?

“That’s tough to pinpoint,” Ruby said. “I always thought the Angels did a good job as far as pitching development. But I look at the physical stature of the young kids we have now in our system, and that’s what I see as the biggest difference. That’s not faulting the Angels. That’s the way they drafted.”

The Angels have long favored college over high school pitchers because they’re more polished, closer to big-league ready, and they’ve had a soft spot for left-handed finesse pitchers such as Brian Anderson, Lorraine and Matt Perisho. But those have been low-risk, low-return investments.

The ones who made the big leagues have been No. 4- and 5-caliber starters, not the big, hard-throwing types who can be staff aces or No. 2 starters.

“If you have a choice, always go for the power pitcher,” Fontaine said. “But there’s not that many out there, just like power hitters.”

Projecting how a young pitcher will perform in three to five years might be the most difficult task in baseball, “because the aluminum bat has changed so many things,” Fontaine said.

“Everyone talks about what it does for hitters, but I think it’s changed pitchers more, because kids throw more breaking balls and off-speed stuff at a younger age. Arms get stronger by throwing fastballs. You have to determine whether a kid will get stronger, faster than what he’s showing now.”

When evaluating pitchers, Fontaine looks for size, strength, athletic ability, quickness of the arm and wrist, freedom of arm movement--the less effort the better--and velocity.

The Angels have made a point in recent years of drafting and signing more power arms, and they’re hoping prospects such as Brandon Emanuel and Matt Wise, who are both 6 feet 4, and Ramon Ortiz, Mark Harriger and Francisco Rodriguez, who throw 90 mph or above, will pan out.

“This is still a side of the industry where if you’re right 20% of the time you’re very successful,” said Fontaine, who signed Randy Johnson when he was West Coast scouting supervisor for the Montreal Expos. “All you can do is learn from what didn’t work and not dwell on it.”

One lesson Fontaine has learned is to never underestimate the importance of mental makeup.

Scouts spend countless hours interviewing prospective picks and their families and friends. Some teams, including the Angels on occasion, conduct psychological tests.

“Once they’re between the lines you watch how they react in tight situations,” Shaffer said. “How does a kid handle adversity? Does he suck it up in tough situations, or does he give it up? That’s a measure of success.”

Finances can also play a part. In 1994, the Angels passed on Jaret Wright, the hard-throwing right-hander from Anaheim’s Katella High and used their sixth pick on high school outfielder McKay Christensen.

Cleveland took Wright with the 10th pick, and Wright is now one of baseball’s brightest young pitchers. Christensen, who went on a Mormon mission after signing a $700,000 bonus, didn’t even play a minor league game for the Angels.

The key component of the 1995 Jim Abbott trade with the Chicago White Sox, Christensen probably will play double A or triple A this season.

“Everyone knew it was going to take $1 million to sign Jaret, and Bob may not have been given $1 million for that pick,” Shaffer said. “You’ve got to take the kid who fits the bill.”

Fontaine says finances didn’t play a role in that draft, though the Autry family was known for being tightfisted in its final days of Angel ownership.

“I’m not saying we had unlimited resources, but it’s not fair to say that was the reason we didn’t take Jaret,” Fontaine said. “We were not alone in passing on him. I can’t look at that as a mistake, because the kid we took is going to be a heck of a player.”

And luck also plays a part.

Warren, the second-round pick in 1992, threw as hard as any Angel prospect before shoulder surgery. And who would have guessed Janicki would get hurt 10 days after that draft?

“You don’t see a guy you’d like to sign and say he’s a candidate for a stress fracture in his elbow,” Fontaine said. “It happens. That’s the biggest risk with pitchers. With one pitch, their career can be over.”

Fontaine admits the Angels “have not done as well as we would have liked” when it comes to cultivating starting pitchers. But he said the Angel player development department “has nothing to be ashamed of,” and at least one of his peers agrees.

“Bob has done the best job of any scouting director in baseball the last 10 years of drafting guys to the big leagues,” Shaffer said. “Some people forget, he signed Randy Johnson, so he doesn’t miss them all.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Farewell to Arms

A look at how Angel pitchers selected in the first five rounds of the draft, from 1989 through ‘96, have fared (numbers indicate round pitcher was selected in):

1989

1. Kyle Abbott: Won three starts for Angels in 1991; traded to Philadelphia for Von Hayes.

2. Joe Grahe: Saved 21 games for Angels in ’92 and 45 overall; career fizzled after shoulder surgery.

4. Erik Bennett: Promoted to big leagues in ’95 after seven minor league seasons; Angel career consisted of one batter faced.

1990

2. Phil Leftwich: Went 9-17 as an Angel from 1993 to ‘95; foot surgery and shoulder surgery led to ’96 release. Pitched in Japan last year.

5. Doug Creek: Did not sign with the Angels.

1991

3. Mark Ratekin: Won 12 games for triple-A Vancouver in ‘94; released in ’96.

5. David Kennedy: Shoulder surgery ended pitching career; eventually signed with Colorado as a first baseman.

1992

1. Pete Janicki: Broke right elbow days after Angels drafted him, and again in ’93. Released in ’97 without reaching big leagues.

1. Jeff Schmidt: Struggled as a starter, moved to bullpen, pitched briefly for Angels in ‘96; released in ’97.

2. DeShawn Warren: Underwent shoulder surgery in ’95 and has never pitched above Class A.

3. Brian Powell: Did not sign with the Angels.

4. Shawn Holcomb: Blew out elbow after four games; retired in ’95.

5. Paxton Briley: Appeared in minor league two games in ‘92; did not play in ‘93, released in ’94.

1993

1. Brian Anderson: Went 13-13 in two-plus seasons with the Angels; traded to Cleveland in ’96 and is now in Arizona’s bullpen.

2. Ryan Hancock: Went 4-1 in brief Angel stint in ‘96; was a throw-in in ’97 Rickey Henderson trade. Pitched in Japan last year.

3. Matt Perisho: Went 0-2 in eight starts in ‘97; traded to Texas for infielder Robert Sasser after season.

4. Andrew Lorraine: Ascended quickly to big leagues, going 0-2 with 10.61 earned-run average in ‘94; sent to White Sox in ’95 Jim Abbott trade.

5. Jose Cintron: Never got past Class-A Cedar Rapids.

1994

4. Matt Beaumont: Cal League pitcher of the year in ’96 (16-9) but hit hard at double-A Midland (9-12) in ‘97; being converted to reliever.

1995

2. Jarrod Washburn: Went 6-3 with 4.62 ERA in 11 Angel starts in ‘98; candidate for rotation this spring.

3. Jeremy Blevins: Traded to Yankees for Jim Leyritz before ’97 season.

4. Brian Cooper: Taken off 40-man roster after going 8-10 for double-A Midland in ’98. Nonroster invitee to camp this spring.

1996

3. Scott Schoeneweis: Overcame testicular cancer and elbow surgery in college to become one of Angels’ top prospects; will probably start season in triple A.

4. Brandon Steele: Former Huntington Beach High star played 1 1/2 seasons before retiring for personal reasons.