Public Narrowly Backs U.S. Role in Airstrikes

Convinced of both a moral imperative and a military necessity to blunt the conflict in Kosovo, a bare majority of Americans supports the U.S.-led airstrikes against Serbian forces but stiffly opposes the future use of ground troops except as post-cease-fire peacekeepers, a Los Angeles Times Poll found Thursday.

A narrow 53% said they approve of the decision to send in American forces, while 43% disapproved. Reinforcing the tentative but supportive conclusion, 51% said they approved of President Clinton’s handling of the Kosovo crisis.

Strikingly, Americans suggested that they had come to believe that the potential for halting Serbian aggression outweighed their concern for the loss of American pilots or personnel.

Yet they were also clearly wary about the depth of U.S. involvement, and the prospect of U.S. troops on the battlefield evinced far stronger objections than the sentiments of support for airstrikes. Almost two-thirds of Americans said they oppose the introduction of ground troops if the airstrikes are not successful in loosening Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s iron grip on Serbia’s majority Albanian Kosovo province.

Almost half said they “strongly” oppose ground troops, while only 29% of the public backed a U.S. infantry presence. As well, those surveyed suggested that Europe--and not the U.S.--should be taking the lead in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization activities.

The Times Poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, questioned 544 Americans by telephone Thursday. The poll has a margin of sampling error of four percentage points in either direction.

The survey was conducted as the U.S. and its NATO allies opened a second night’s missile and bomb barrage against Serbian targets that military officials believe are essential to Milosevic’s continued effort to control Kosovo.

Bloody Campaign Against Albanians

Little noticed by Americans--and often overshadowed recently by U.S. involvement in Iraq and Bosnia-Herzegovina--separatist elements in Kosovo have pressed for independence for more than three decades. But in the last year, under Milosevic’s direction, the Serbs who control Yugoslavia, now reduced to Serbia and Montenegro, have waged a bloody campaign of death and disruption to try to put down the rebellion.

Clinton, in a Wednesday night address to the nation, said that he approved American airstrikes to prevent the further slaughter of the ethnic Albanians and to protect U.S. interests from a broadening Balkan war.

The poll showed that, whether they were convinced by Clinton or came to the same conclusion independently, most Americans firmly support the Clinton administration’s rationales.

Almost three in five Americans said that the U.S. action is “morally justified,” while only 28% disagreed. When asked specifically about Clinton’s argument that Serbs have to be stopped from systematically killing or uprooting Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, 66% said they agreed.

Additionally, two-thirds said that they believed the Kosovo battling could spread to neighboring Balkan countries if not halted by the U.S.-NATO barrage.

More than half of Americans came to the difficult conclusion that those justifications outweighed the risk to American military personnel: Fifty-four percent said the airstrikes were worth the risk of casualties, and only 38% disagreed.

“The arguments given by Clinton--’ethnic cleansing’ and instability in the region--outweigh the public’s concern about risking American troops’ lives,” said Pinkus. “Strong majorities believe the U.S. is morally justified and that there is a chance that the war would otherwise spread.”

Despite the inclination to enter the conflict, Americans were reluctant to assume that the action will have its intended effect--persuading Milosevic to halt his campaign against the ethnic Albanians.

Asked whether the strikes would persuade the Yugoslav leader to sign a peace agreement or, to the contrary, deepen his resolve to continue fighting, 45% said the military effort would backfire, while 36% predicted a peace negotiation.

More than half, however, said they do not believe Milosevic can be negotiated with--suggesting anew that, however shadowy a figure he may be, he does not come across as one likely to make concessions.

Milosevic Not Yet Demonized

Indeed, for all the agreement about the moral imperative of stopping ethnic bloodletting, the poll made clear that U.S. leaders have yet to demonize Milosevic as successfully as the Bush administration did its intransigent foe, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. When explaining why they thought the Serbs and ethnic Albanians were warring, only 1% of Thursday’s respondents said it was because Milosevic was evil.

But there is clear support for the broader argument that NATO has a right to enter into sovereign lands to protect beleaguered citizens--a right exercised this week for the first time in the treaty organization’s 50-year history. Nearly six in 10 said that fell within NATO’s bailiwick, while only 31% said NATO allies were exceeding their rights.

The makeup of the alliance was the subject of some discomfort, however. Sixty-seven percent of the poll respondents said that they believed Europe should take the lead in dealing with the conflict in its backyard. Only 22% supported the current arrangement, which has the Clinton administration calling the shots.

At this early stage of the involvement, Americans appear willing to let events play out before coming to any definitive judgment on when U.S. troops should leave. Asked how long the airstrikes should continue, a majority said as long as necessary to achieve the operation’s goals. Additionally, they placed no firm timetable on the length of stay for a prospective peacekeeping force on the ground, with a plurality saying that should continue as long as necessary.

But the sentiment for a peacekeeping presence--which 68% favored--did little to budge the overwhelming opposition to the introduction of ground troops before a peace treaty is signed.

Much of the public opinion about the Kosovo situation was shared across the board, among disparate demographic groups.

Nonetheless, there were significant differences among those who said that they had been keeping up with news media reports about Kosovo and those who said they had not. Overall, almost eight in 10 Americans said that they had heard about the conflict. And 66% accurately placed Kosovo on the world map.

Clinton Delivers Geography Lesson

Nearly half of Americans were able to give reasons for the warring in the Balkans, although about half were not able to say whose side the U.S. was on.

Much of that knowledge may have come very recently. As late as Wednesday night, in his televised address to the nation, Clinton was compelled to open with a geography lesson, explaining in detail exactly where Kosovo is and briefly reciting its divisive history.

Overall, 55% of those who said they had been keeping up with Kosovo news said they supported the military effort, a view shared by only 42% of those who said they had little knowledge of the conflict. Similarly, 60% of those who had read and heard about Kosovo said the United States was morally justified in its actions, but only 41% of those who had little knowledge were supportive.

Perhaps understandably, those who were less aware of the administration’s rationale for U.S. involvement were also far more concerned about the potential loss of American life. Fifty-four percent of them said that American lives were more important than allowing the Serbs to get away with ethnic killings, while only 35% of those with more knowledge of the conflict shared that sentiment.

For the present, Americans were engaging in the traditional exercise of rallying around the president at a time of military conflict. Asked about Clinton’s handling of the Balkan crisis, 51% lauded him and 31% disapproved.

But that fairly tentative support has yet to translate into a boost for Clinton’s job approval rating, the survey found. About three in five Americans supported Clinton’s performance as president, slightly lower than the level he maintained throughout the yearlong controversy over his relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky.

Traditionally, presidential popularity soars during the initial phases of a high-profile international excursion. Former President Bush’s job approval rating stood at 67% in a Times Poll conducted shortly before allied troops began bombing Iraq in early 1991. In little more than a week, it had zoomed to 85%.

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Americans’ Reaction

Most Americans agree with the decision to send U.S. troops to be part of the NATO air operation against the Serbs.

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 43%

Don’t know: 4%

Do you know which groups are fighting each other in Kosovo?

Serbs / ethnic Albanians (correct): 45%

Christians/Muslims (correct): 2%

Other (incorrect): 7

Don’t know / haven’t heard enough: 46%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 544 adults nationwide by telephone Thursday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus four percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.