60% of Valley Voters Favor City Secession

Despite general satisfaction with the life, economy and leadership of Los Angeles, sentiment is building in the San Fernando Valley for secession, a feeling that deeply divides the rest of the city and makes the issue’s electoral future too close to call.

A new Times poll, conducted by telephone last week, shows that a strong majority of San Fernando Valley residents now favor breaking away from the rest of the city.

Overall, 60% of Valley voters polled said they support forming their own city, a municipality that would be roughly the size of Philadelphia and would reduce Los Angeles from the nation’s second-largest city to No. 3, after Chicago.

Thirty percent of voters in the Valley oppose secession, with the remaining 10% undecided. The poll, which surveyed 1,221 city residents March 20-27, includes a margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Of those interviewed, 854 were registered voters.

Those numbers represent significant gains for secession advocates, who just last month completed their quest to force a study of the proposed breakaway’s effects. Three years ago, a Times poll found 50% of Valley voters in favor of secession, 36% opposed and 14% undecided.

Among registered voters, those who favor the Valley breakaway tend to be younger, richer and more conservative than those who oppose it. But while support for secession runs strong in the Valley and reaches across racial lines to include many whites and a slightly smaller percentage of Latinos, it encounters a deeply conflicted electorate outside that area.

In all, 43% of those voters who live beyond the Valley’s borders oppose secession, compared with 39% who favor it. Since Valley secession would require the approval of Valley residents and those of the city as a whole, an election today on the issue would be too close to call. Secession’s advocates have gained ground in recent years, but neither side enjoys a clear majority. Of voters citywide, 47% supported secession, 39% opposed it and 14% were undecided.

Complicating that analysis is the fact that the Valley generally produces the highest turnout in city elections, so strong support there could overwhelm indifference elsewhere. Secession backers hope to place the matter before voters in 2002, on a ballot that probably would be topped by the governor’s race, traditionally a high-turnout election that draws voters from across the city.

Outside the Valley, voters in Central Los Angeles--from Mulholland Drive south to the Santa Monica Freeway and from Northeast L.A. to the Wilshire district--and on the Westside were about evenly divided over secession. The most determined opposition came from African American voters and those from South Los Angeles, from the Santa Monica Freeway south to the Harbor district.

“You’re supposed to make do wherever you are. I’ve always been told that,” said Christopher Moore, a 38-year-old South-Central poll respondent who opposes secession and who agreed to a follow-up interview. “Just to run away because you don’t like it? That’s not right.”

But many residents see the issue differently.

Latino Feelings Under Scrutiny

Of all those polled, 57% of white San Fernando Valley residents said they supported their area’s breakaway, compared with 32% who opposed it. Meanwhile, 48% of Latinos backed the move, compared with 36% who opposed it. (African Americans and Asian Americans make up such a small percentage of the Valley’s population that their representation among the poll’s respondents was not sufficient to make generalizations.)

The feelings of Latinos regarding secession have come under special scrutiny. Although many Valley leaders have expressed support for studying secession, some community activists--particularly in the predominantly Latino northeast Valley--have openly questioned the motives of Valley VOTE, which is leading the effort.

In part, those concerns are fueled by the fact that some of the more vocal Valley secession proponents were active in the 1970s “Bus Stop” anti-school busing movement, a political campaign they considered racially divisive. Census figures from 1990 also showed that the Valley was whiter than the city as a whole, and critics have suggested that the secession is driven in part by a desire to harden those racial lines.

Valley VOTE leaders vehemently disagree. They repeatedly have argued that the effort draws support from all ethnic groups--and, in fact, that minority communities support the cause most strongly. The poll numbers do not support that contention because Latinos were somewhat less enthusiastic than whites about secession, but they hardly suggest a significant racial divide, either.

In fact, Latino and white secession supporters gave remarkably similar reasons for backing the idea.

Of respondents who support a breakup, 28% of whites in the Valley cited a desire for smaller government, compared with 21% of Latinos. That was the top reason cited among Valley whites, and the second most common reason given by Valley Latinos, 24% of whom expressed interest in the improved government services that some say a smaller city could bring.

Likewise, 62% of white Valley respondents said they believe Valley residents pay more in fees than they receive in government services, compared with 49% for Valley Latinos. As a whole, 56% of Valley respondents said they feel they are not getting their “fair share,” while just 16% believe they are. A majority of residents in every other part of the city disagree or have no opinion about whether the Valley is being treated fairly.

“Los Angeles has too much to do and to worry about,” said Martha Gutierrez, who has lived in the San Fernando Valley for eight years and supports secession. “A smaller city would have less worries. It would have more time to pay attention to the schools.”

Jerry Murillo, a poll respondent from Sylmar, said breaking off the Valley from Los Angeles might hurt residents south of the Santa Monicas, but he added that Valley residents are entitled to local control. The current situation “is a big thing,” he said.

Ironically, support for secession is growing even as residents report growing confidence in Los Angeles.

More than half of all city residents said Los Angeles is “going in the right direction,” a dramatic increase from 1994, when just 22% of city residents expressed that confidence.

A staggering 80% of those polled said the economy is doing well--compared with 14% who said it’s doing badly--and the sense of well-being hit close to home as well, with 82% saying that their neighborhoods are faring well and 70% reporting that their personal finances either are very secure or fairly secure, compared with 29% who said their finances are shaky.

So broad is the good feeling in Los Angeles that it even shows up in signs of a growing tolerance. A few years ago, with the local economy struggling, anti-immigrant sentiments flared. Today, some of that ill-will seems to be fading.

Less than half those polled, 46%, said they believe there are “too many” immigrants in Los Angeles. The remainder either think there are about the right number, have no opinion, don’t know, or in the case of 3% of those questioned, think there are too few. Six years ago, three out of five Los Angeles residents--including whites, African Americans and Latinos--concurred that there were too many immigrants in the city. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough to break out as a separate subgroup.

Evidence of a generally contented electorate also turned up in the high marks that residents gave to the city’s leaders.

Riordan Gets 57% Approval Rating

Mayor Richard Riordan, an adamant foe of secession, is well-liked citywide, especially in the Valley. His job performance was rated approvingly by 57% of those polled, up slightly from two years ago and most dramatically up among blacks. In 1997, African Americans overwhelmingly voted against Riordan just weeks after the mayor decided not to reappoint Willie L. Williams, the city’s first African American police chief, to a second term.

At its nadir, Riordan’s job approval rating among African Americans plunged to 22%, with 63% disapproving of his job as mayor. The latest poll chronicles a powerful turnaround; 37% of the African Americans interviewed said they now like the job Riordan is doing, compared with 22% who disapprove of his performance.

As a result, Riordan now enjoys essentially across the board approval as he prepares to enter the final two years of his second and final term.

While Riordan’s approval stretched across ethnic lines, the multimillionaire mayor fared best among those who make the most. His approval rating steadily rose along with the respondent’s income. Those who earn less than $20,000 favor him by a margin of 45% to 16%. More than half of those who make $20,000 to $40,000 a year approve of his work; two-thirds of those who make between $40,000 and $60,000 give him high marks. And 71% of those who make more than $60,000 a year said they like the job Riordan is doing; only 10% of the city’s highest wage-earners disapprove of his work.

Riordan is not alone in winning praise from residents.

Williams’ successor, Chief Bernard C. Parks, won the approval of 47% of those polled, compared with just 10% who disapproved of his performance. Although many residents have yet to form an opinion about Parks’ performance, they are far more decided when it comes to the department he heads, the city’s police force.

Citywide, nearly two-thirds of all residents approve of the LAPD’s work, with a quarter of all residents disapproving of it and the remainder undecided. And nowhere is the LAPD better liked than in the Valley, where 74% of those polled approve and 17% disapprove of the work of a department whose services they would lose if they formed their own city.

Despite those generally glowing reviews for Los Angeles and its leadership, many of those polled said they are willing to risk harming the city if secession comes to that.

Nearly one in three respondents said they expect secession to hurt the rest of the city, while only 19% believe it would help--35% predicted it would have no effect.

Christine, a poll respondent who lives near the Marvin Gardens housing project in West Los Angeles, is one of those who said she believes secession probably would leave Los Angeles worse off. She supports it anyway.

“If they want their own community, they should have it,” she said. “Culver City is its own little thing, and so is West Hollywood. Why shouldn’t the Valley get to be its own city?”

But Christine, who did not want her last name used, won’t be here to see it. After 46 years in Los Angeles, she said crime and gangs have exhausted her. She’s moving to Arizona.

Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Differing Views

* Do you favor or oppose San Fernando Valley secession from the city of Los Angeles?

(Among registered voters)

Citywide:

Favor: 47%

Oppose: 39%

Don’t know: 14%

Valley:

Favor: 60%

Oppose: 30%

Don’t know: 10%

*--*

South Central Westside City City Favor 43% 36% 42% Oppose 43 45 43 Don’t know 14 19 15

*--*

Source: Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Reasons on Both Side

The voters in the San Fernando Valley are solidly behind secession from Los Angeles while the rest of the city voters are divided. Citywide, respondents said they favored secession because it would make city government smaller. Citywide, voters cited loss of revenue as the top reason for opposing secession, while Valley voters embrace it even if it means higher costs all around.

* Why do you favor Valley secession? (asked of registered voters who favor secession)

Smaller city government

Citywide: 25%

Valley: 33%

More local control

Citywide: 17%

Valley: 19%

Valley is big enough for independence

Citywide: 16%

Valley: 13%

Valley taxpayers should get fair return for taxes paid

Citywide: 13%

Valley: 21%

Los Angeles is too big

Citywide: 13%

Valley: 13%

*

*

* Why do you oppose Valley secession? (asked of registered voters who oppose secession)

Loss of tax revenue

Citywide: 17%

Valley: 11%

Results in higher costs all around

Citywide: 13%

Valley: 21%

Creates conflict and confusion

Citywide: 12%

Valley: 8%

Loss of sense of community

Citywide: 11%

Valley: 9%

City works fine as it is

Citywide: 11%

Valley: 7%

*

*

Note: Two replies were accepted and only the top five responses are shown, so numbers do not total 100%.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Times Poll contacted 1,221 citywide residents in Los Angeles, including 854 registered voters, by telephone March 20 through 24. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Surveys were conducted in English and Spanish. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough to break out as a separate subgroup.

* LAPD’S PARKS RATED

The police chief has a high approval rating, but toils largely in anonymity. B3