Colombia Peace Talks Agenda Due Today

Government and rebel leaders are expected to announce an agenda for peace talks today in the first concrete achievement for President Andres Pastrana’s dogged effort to negotiate an end to Latin America’s longest guerrilla war.

The expected announcement follows a surprise one-on-one weekend meeting between Pastrana and insurgent leader Manuel “Sure-shot” Marulanda, the leader of Colombia’s oldest and largest guerrilla army--a dramatic move to get the stalled peace process back on track.

The encounter seemed to provide an impetus that had been lacking since the rebels, the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces, known by the initials FARC, froze dialogue with the government after several massacres by right-wing private armies earlier this year.

“In the short term, the road is clear,” said former Colombian security advisor Alfredo Rangel. A presidential spokesman said that four prominent Colombians, including former Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia, have been meeting with FARC negotiators sporadically for nearly six months to work out the agenda and had reached an agreement on 90% of it by late Wednesday.

Still, analysts warned that a long, tense peace process lies ahead, and that fighting may escalate as talks progress and the rebels try to assert their military strength.

Besides setting a date to begin formal talks, negotiators are expected to announce a plan to bring international observers into the peace process and clarify the status of a no-fire zone that has been set aside in southern Colombia to host the talks.

The FARC currently controls the zone, a swath of jungle roughly the size of Switzerland, and the government is expected to allow the rebel army to remain there indefinitely.

“I am optimistic--that does not mean that I foresee any quick or easy process,” said Rodrigo Losada, a political analyst at Bogota’s Javeriana University. Like others, Losada pointed to U.S. interest in stopping the flow of cocaine and heroin from guerrilla-controlled territory as a point in Pastrana’s favor. There is the implicit threat to the guerrillas that if the peace talks fail, the Americans will pour military aid into Colombia, he said.

U.S. anti-drug aid to Colombia is budgeted to reach $234 million this year, a sharp increase from $128.9 million in 1998.

Nevertheless, Rangel cautioned, “The FARC is not in a hurry; the most critical part of the armed conflict is yet to come.”

Noting that the rebels have continued to attack army troops and small towns since the ceremonial launching of a peace dialogue Jan. 7, he predicted that violence will continue and perhaps even worsen during the talks.

Although Pastrana may be remembered as the president who began the peace process, Losada said the 3 1/2 years left in his term is unlikely to be enough time to conclude and sign any peace agreement.