Will Force Stay With ‘Menace’?

Question: When is a movie that breaks box-office records considered to be not quite living up to its hype? Answer: When the movie has the “Star Wars” label attached to it.

This might sound like something Yoda would say, but in fact it’s what’s happening to “Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace” in its first five days.

“Phantom Menace” broke through the $100-million mark over the weekend, the third film this year to reach that level. What’s more, “Phantom Menace” arrived at that landmark in its fifth day of release, a day ahead of the previous out-of-the-gate champion, “The Lost World: Jurassic Park.”

After having broken the single-day box-office record on opening day Wednesday with $28.5 million, “Phantom Menace” socked away an additional $61.8 million over the weekend in 2,970 theaters for an estimated five-day total of $102.75 million. (“Lost World” still has the record for best weekend, earning $72.1 million from Friday through Sunday in 1997, although that was on a holiday weekend.)

The “Phantom Menace” numbers were well below earlier weekend projections, but the film’s real impact cannot can’t be fully gauged until the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, a four-day holiday period during which “Lost World” earned $90.1 million. Over the next eight days, “Phantom Menace” should climb steadily toward $200 million--and reach that plateau faster than any film.

“Phantom Menace” has clearly struck at its core audience of very young males. Weekend matinee figures were impressive and encouraging for Lucasfilm and 20th Century Fox, which is distributing the film.

But in light of the intense media scrutiny, “Phantom Menace” has a great deal to live up to. And while it’s still too early to say for certain, “Titanic’s” $600-million domestic box-office record seems relatively safe. “Phantom Menace” looks to be performing very much like a “Star Wars” film, meaning it will rank among the top grossers of all time with at least $300 million, and possibly as much as $400 million. And like its predecessors it will have a potent afterlife, especially with two sequels due at three-year intervals.

“The key here is kids,” says Tom Sherak, senior executive at Fox. “With summer recess starting as early as next week in some parts of the country and increasing throughout the month of June, the availability of sub-teens seven days a week is what will determine ‘Phantom Menace’s’ ultimate box office.”

But to challenge “Titanic,” “Phantom Menace” would have to appeal to all audiences, and it remains questionable whether a sci-fi action adventure aimed at kids can bring in older crowds, especially when the film is getting mixed notices from reviewers and early crowds.

And yes, there were other movies in theaters, some of which held up fairly well against “Phantom Menace,” although the only other new arrival, DreamWorks’ modestly budgeted romantic comedy “The Love Letter,” generated little affection from audiences, prompting a rather cool reception of $2.6 million on 769 screens. Memorial Day weekend could help shore up the film’s fortunes, although with Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant debuting in the high-profile romantic comedy “Notting Hill” on Friday, it’s hard to see how.

Of the hit films continuing to play in theaters, “The Mummy” had the most to lose, sharing the adventure-seeking audience with the new kid on the block. Universal wisely opened the film on May 7, giving it a two-week window before George Lucas’ intergalactic prequel arrived. After a strong second weekend hold, “The Mummy” inevitably took a hit this weekend, dropping 47% to approximately $13.1 million in 3,270 theaters. Still, that was enough to lift the film to just under $100 million in its first 17 days.

Since it appeals to older audiences, “Entrapment” held a bit better than “The Mummy.” It brought in $5.75 million in its fourth weekend, dropping only 37% while nearing a total of $60 million. And “The Matrix” hung in the top five, where it has resided for the past two months. Adding another $2.7 million to round the $150-million mark, it remains (at least for another week) the year’s highest-grossing film.

As for “A Midsummer Night’s Dream,” Shakespearean lightning has not struck twice this year (there’ll be more Bard adaptations later). Hoping to seduce the “Shakespeare in Love” crowd, “Midsummer” has gotten off to a somewhat shaky start, dropping about 42% to an estimated $2.5 million in its second weekend, for a 10-day total of $8.1 million.

Drew Barrymore’s “Never Been Kissed,” however, shows stubborn staying power, grossing $1.55 million in its seventh weekend for a total to date of about $46 million.