There Republicans Go Again: Son of Prop. 187 a Possibility

Rarely does a political party commit suicide twice, but Republicans may be about to do just that. The people who put Proposition 187, the anti-immigrant measure, on the ’94 ballot, a group called Save Our State, is about to launch a “son of 187” for the November 2000 ballot. Most of Proposition 187 was declared unconstitutional, but backers of the new initiative apparently want to refight the immigration wars of the ‘90s. Their success could determine whether a Democrat or a Republican is elected president in 2000.

The first Proposition 187 turned California from a two-party state into the most Democratic big state in the nation. State Republicans championed 187, and, in the short term, it may have helped them in the 1994 election. But it also energized more than 1 million new Latino and Asian voters who gave Democrats nearly 80% of their votes in the 1996 and ’98 elections.

The proposition has had a greater impact on state politics than any ballot measure since Proposition 13. According to figures developed by Assembly Democrats, before 187, Latinos and Asians accounted for about 600,000 California voters, and Republicans won about 40% of their votes. But by 1998, Latinos and Asians accounted for 1.7 million votes and gave Democrats a 900,000-vote margin.

The huge, newly loyal Latino-Asian Democratic vote played a big part in the loss of nine Republican Assembly seats over the past two election cycles. To illustrate how dramatic the vote is, the late Mayor Tom Bradley would have defeated George Deukmejian in 1982, then San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein would have beaten Pete Wilson in 1990, and former Speaker Jess M. Unruh may have knocked off Gov. Ronald Reagan in 1970 had the elections been conducted in the political demographics of 1998.

Most Republicans seem to have learned the lesson of 1998. Their leading presidential candidates, Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain, both received large Latino votes in their home states, and polls show Bush and Vice President Al Gore in a dead heat in California. Bush is getting about one-third of the California Latino vote.

Currently, California looks very good for the GOP, especially because California is a “must win” state for a Democratic presidential candidate. Nationally, Democrats start at a disadvantage because the GOP electoral-college base--the mountain West, farm states and the South anchored by Texas--outpolls the Democratic counterpart along the Eastern seaboard. Republicans have figured out that giving California to the Democrats without a fight, as they did in 1992 and ‘96, frees up Democratic money for the real battleground states in the East and Midwest: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. These four states will decide the next president, and Democrats must put California in the bank early to concentrate their efforts there.

That’s why the son of 187 is so crucial for Democratic hopes. Another battle over immigration would keep Latinos safely in Democratic ranks. It would also provide Democrats a tool to whip up a high Latino Democratic turnout not only in California but also in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida--”must win” Republican states--as well as Illinois, which has a large Latino populations.

Another 187 would also give the Reform Party’s Patrick J. Buchanan, should he win the nomination, a major wedge issue to split the Republican vote, again not only in California but throughout the Southwest, where 8% to 10% support for Buchanan could throw close states to the Democrats. That’s why a son of 187 in California would crucially affect the presidential election nationally.

As the 1996 and ’98 elections showed, the immigration issue does not increase white or Republican turnout but dramatically hikes the number of Latino Democratic voters. That’s why Democratic strategists are trying to keep the immigration wars alive, to keep Latino voters from returning to their pre-Proposition 187 level of support for GOP candidates.

California is not only key to presidential politics. Democrats need only a five-seat gain to win back control of the House of Representatives, and they could gain those seats in Southern California alone. GOP Reps. James E. Rogan of Glendale and Brian P. Bilbray of San Diego, narrowly reelected in 1998, face tough 2000 challenges, as may freshman Republican Rep. Steven T. Kuykendall in Palos Verdes. All could be hit by a large Democratic Latino turnout.

Two other veteran Republicans, both in areas of declining GOP registration, could face defeat if the growing suburban Latino-Asian vote is properly mobilized in their districts. Rep. Elton Gallegly faces a potentially tough challenge next year in his Ventura County district, which has a 20% and growing Latino-Asian voter registration. Both Gov. Gray Davis and Sen. Barbara Boxer carried his district in 1998, in part because of the huge Latino turnout that year.

In the East San Gabriel Valley, Rep. David Dreier also faces a possible tough reelection. He won only 59% of the vote in 1998 against a poorly funded opponent. His district has a 26% Latino-Asian voter base, and Davis carried it in 1998.

These two districts could be part of a vertical Democratic electoral strategy in 2000. They overlap two Republican-held state Senate districts that will be open because of term limits, and four GOP Assembly districts, two of which will also be vacant. Furthermore, Democrats need to win just three state Senate seats and six Assembly districts to win two-thirds control of both houses of the Legislature. With that conquest would come complete control over state fiscal policy. Nothing could make this scenario a reality better than a son of 187.

The fallout from Proposition 187 is not a matter of conjecture; its stark results were apparent in 1998, when GOP gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren and Senate candidate Matt Fong were crushed by a lingering Latino backlash over 187, despite sincere efforts to disassociate themselves from GOP-led immigrant bashing.

It’s mystery why any Republican would want to go through that again. Like the Bourbons of France, however, some people never learn. *