After Bush’s Running Start, 2 Rivals Make a Race of It

Only a candidate confident no one was breathing too closely down his neck might duck off the campaign trail for a long jog in the middle of the afternoon, as George W. Bush did when he visited Clemson University last week. Yet in his race for the Republican presidential nod, it appears Bush may have broken into his victory lap too soon.

After months of leading the GOP field by a margin so large that he could barely see his closest competitor, Bush is confronting an intensified challenge from his two principal remaining rivals.

From one side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona has surged in the critical first primary state of New Hampshire--to the point where some analysts believe he could pass Bush in the polls by the time Bush debates his opponents for the first time Dec. 2. From the other, Steve Forbes on Monday launched a long-awaited television advertising campaign--which, although notable for not attacking Bush, does aim to help Forbes peel away conservative votes from the Texas governor.

These new pressures come after more than a month in which Bush, though he’s campaigned steadily, has kept a relatively low profile. He offered only a single policy speech, which attracted little attention, skipped two debates in New Hampshire and stumbled in a confrontational interview with a Boston television reporter who challenged him to name the leaders of four world nations.

Bush’s unprecedented bankroll and his national organization headlined by support from 25 governors still gives him enormous advantages over his rivals, even if he slips in New Hampshire. But the fact that GOP analysts--and Bush himself--are talking about how the race might look if he loses the first primary is itself a mark of how much the GOP contest has changed of late.

Rivals Take Advantage of Miscalculations

Partly, Bush has been a victim of his own success: By forcing so many other rivals to the sidelines with his massive fund-raising, he’s inadvertently made it easier for McCain to consolidate some support.

Strategists for Bush’s rivals believe he also has miscalculated in trying to shorten the primary season by remaining disengaged from his foes for as long as possible. That’s textbook strategy for a front-runner, but in this instance, it has risked alienating GOP voters, especially in prickly New Hampshire, already unhappy with the perception that the donors and the media have anointed the nominee before they get to cast ballots.

“There’s no question they’ve gone through the last several months acting as if there was no campaign,” says Dan Schnur, McCain’s communications director.

Bush continues to demonstrate substantial one-on-one appeal. Despite his long break during his Clemson stop, he drew large and enthusiastic crowds at four events in South Carolina--which, together with Iowa and New Hampshire, is part of the critical troika of early GOP contests.

Yet apart from some remarks geared to veterans at one stop, he delivered virtually word-for-word the same stump speech he unveiled in June. At none of the events did he take a single question from the audience. And though Bush acquired many admirers through the day, he also left some waiting for more details. “He has the persona, but I’m still interested in what the policy side is, and I haven’t heard a lot of that,” said business owner Wes Hulsey, of Greenville, after listening to Bush speak.

Through early fall, Bush had moved steadily to lay out his policy agenda, delivering speeches on defense, education and the use of religiously based charities to deliver social services. But since a major education speech on Oct. 5 drew a firestorm of conservative complaints for accusing the GOP of too much hostility toward government, Bush has offered only a single address, which urged greater discipline in the classroom.

Bush’s most visible moment in the past five weeks was an uncomfortable one: the “pop quiz” interview on world leaders earlier this month.

None of this has dented Bush’s huge lead in national surveys or slowed his relentless fund-raising. But strategists for both Forbes and McCain believe it has opened the door to a reconsideration of Bush in the states where voters are most engaged, particularly New Hampshire.

After recently conducting a round of focus groups among Bush and McCain supporters in New Hampshire, one senior Forbes advisor said “little seeds of doubt [about Bush] have been planted.”

The reaction seemed to confirm the criticisms of Bush for not yet clearly defining his agenda and for skipping two recent town hall forums.

The most visible manifestation of that is McCain’s rise in New Hampshire polls. Last week, the American Research Group released a survey showing Bush--who held a 24-percentage-point advantage as recently as August--leading McCain in New Hampshire by just three points. No other survey has shown the race that close, but all show the same trend, with McCain closing in.

The best news for McCain in the American Research poll was the breadth of his gains. Earlier, his support had been concentrated among the most moderate voters. The latest poll showed him running even with Bush among the largest share of the New Hampshire GOP electorate: voters who are slightly right of center. Bush led McCain only among “very conservative” voters.

If Forbes can energize his lagging New Hampshire effort with his new ads--which primarily tout his familiar support for tax cuts and Social Security privatization--he might strip away conservative votes from Bush and tighten the contest further.

“I think McCain will be ahead of Bush by Thanksgiving,” said the senior Forbes advisor. “It is almost a tidal wave.”

Bush Confident He’ll Win the Nomination

While conceding that McCain has developed a constituency in New Hampshire, Bush advisors maintain the race has not fundamentally changed. In virtually all New Hampshire polls, they note, Bush’s vote has remained consistent at about 40%; they argue that McCain is merely consolidating voters who had been divided among candidates who have left the race, such as Lamar Alexander and Elizabeth Hanford Dole.

And they note that McCain has been concentrating almost solely on New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Bush has been building a national organization. (McCain has spent three times as many days as Bush in New Hampshire this year.) Bush’s national focus should benefit him when the primary calendar explodes into a cross-country steeplechase by early March.

Bush himself acknowledged in comments published Monday in USA Today that he could lose the New Hampshire primary, but he expressed confidence that he would still win the nomination because of his campaign’s breadth.

Indeed, although a New Hampshire win could boost McCain, he has a lot of ground to make up in the states that follow. A new poll in Michigan, which will vote in late February, showed Bush with 71%, compared to just 7% for McCain and 5% for Forbes. And in Iowa’s kickoff caucus, where McCain isn’t competing, a new Des Moines Register poll shows Bush with a solid lead over Forbes, 49% to 20%.

Yet Bush’s camp seems concerned enough about the trends to intensify its efforts. He is due to deliver a major address on foreign policy Friday at the Ronald Reagan library in Simi Valley; a speech laying out his agenda on taxes and other economic issues is due in December. On Monday, he released a campaign autobiography titled “A Charge to Keep.” Today, he’s scheduled to air a new advertisement in South Carolina focusing on defense issues.

McCain, who has been slow to lay out his agenda, is planning a series of speeches on defense, foreign policy, Social Security and health care before year’s end, with taxes to follow soon thereafter. With Forbes also trying to raise his profile with his new advertising blitz, the stage is being set for the leading Republican candidates to give voters what many have said they’ve been waiting for: a genuine debate about the party’s agenda and direction.