Bush, Gore Hold Big Leads in Nation but Not in N.H.

George W. Bush and Al Gore both hold substantial leads among voters nationwide in the race for their parties’ presidential nominations, according to a new Times Poll. But each man is facing a much more competitive contest in the critical first primary state of New Hampshire that could instantly reshape the national landscape, the survey also found.

In all, the poll found Vice President Gore in a much more tenuous position than Bush. Nationally, Gore leads his sole Democratic challenger, former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, by 18 percentage points. But in New Hampshire, the two men are locked in a dead heat, with 43% supporting Gore and 42% Bradley.

Texas Gov. Bush, meanwhile, holds a towering lead with the Republican electorate nationwide: He draws 59% of the vote, more than four times as much as his closest competitor, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. But the New Hampshire survey found McCain gathering momentum as a formidable competitor to Bush there: McCain draws 36% of GOP primary voters, compared with 44% for Bush. Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes runs a distant third with just 8%.

Even in New Hampshire, where the candidates are campaigning incessantly and television ads are drifting onto the airwaves like early snow, opinions about the race remain fluid and knowledge about the candidates limited. Only about one-third of those in New Hampshire supporting each of the four leaders--Bush, McCain, Bradley and Gore--say they are certain to vote for their candidate, and many supporters struggle to associate any specific policy position with their choice. Indeed, the poll suggests that opinions in both primaries could shift when voters learn more about the candidates’ views on such issues as welfare reform, health care and gun control.

The Times conducted polls both nationally and in New Hampshire from Nov. 13 to Nov. 18. The national survey interviewed 1,430 registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll contacted 641 registered voters in New Hampshire, including 320 who will vote in the Republican primary and 249 in the Democratic primary. The margin of error for both those groups is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

The gap between the national and New Hampshire numbers in both parties underscores the stakes in the Granite State’s primary, which will take place 10 weeks from Tuesday. If Gore and Bush win New Hampshire, their rivals may have great difficulty generating enough momentum to overcome the front-runners’ advantages with the broad national electorate. If the front-runners lose, though, the races might quickly look very different.

A New Hampshire breakthrough doesn’t guarantee victory for a challenger: Both Democrat Gary Hart in 1984 and Republican Patrick J. Buchanan in 1996, for instance, ultimately lost to established front-runners despite upset victories in New Hampshire. Just like eventual nominees Walter F. Mondale in 1984 and Bob Dole in 1996, Gore and Bush would enjoy significant institutional and, in Bush’s case, financial advantages even if they faltered in New Hampshire.

But in the media spotlight lit by their surprise New Hampshire victories, both Hart and Buchanan surged at least 20 percentage points in national Gallup Polls and built credible challenges in states where they previously had been only an asterisk. If that rough precedent holds, a victory in the first primary could bring McCain at least within range of Bush in national polls and leave Bradley virtually neck and neck with Gore.

“New Hampshire voters are much more aware of the campaign than voters nationally, and they are reaching different conclusions,” said Susan Pinkus, the director of The Times Poll. “The question is whether New Hampshire will be a bellwether for the rest of the nation.”

Looking toward next November’s general election, the survey found Bush maintaining a strong lead over Gore, with Bradley edging somewhat closer. In a two-way race, Bush leads Gore 55% to 40%, and Bradley 50% to 41%.

Adding Buchanan to the mix doesn’t change the flavor much: In a race with Buchanan as the Reform Party candidate, Bush still leads Gore by 12 percentage points and Bradley by 10. Buchanan drew just 9% in a three-way race with Bush and Gore, and only 8% with Bush and Bradley.

With its piquant and politically provocative cast of characters, the race for the Reform Party nomination, not surprisingly, is wide open. Among those who say they are likely to cast a ballot in the party’s national nominating primary next year, Buchanan leads with 30%. Trailing are the party’s founder, Texas businessman Ross Perot (with 25%), Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (with 20%) and New York City developer Donald Trump (at 15%).

Returning to the major parties’ nomination contests, the survey finds the electorate fracturing along the same fault lines that have emerged in most other New Hampshire surveys.

The New Hampshire Republican race is dividing along lines of gender, age and ideology. McCain battles Bush to a draw among men, while Bush holds a 17-point lead among women; likewise, McCain runs even with Bush among voters older than 45 (he leads among men over 45), while Bush holds a 22-point lead among those younger. Bush leads by just 4 percentage points among moderates but holds a 10-point advantage among conservatives.

None of the other Republican contestants registers much of a pulse. Behind Forbes at 8% come conservative activists Alan Keyes at 3% and Gary Bauer at 1%; Sen. Orrin G. Hatch of Utah also limps in at just 1%.

On the Democratic side in New Hampshire, Bradley runs 10 points better among men than women; he leads Gore narrowly among men and trails narrowly among women. College-educated voters--who have warmed to reform-minded candidacies like Bradley’s in the past--give him an 11-point advantage; Gore leads by 10 points among those without college degrees. Ideology is also creeping into the race, with liberals now giving Bradley a 7-point edge, but more moderate and conservative Democrats preferring Gore by 8 points.

These results in both parties measure the preferences among all registered voters in New Hampshire. The survey also sought to assess how people who indicated they are likely to vote divide among the candidates. One such simulation--assuming a turnout similar to that in 1996--noticeably shifted the results. It put Bush and McCain in a dead heat, at 39% and 38%, respectively, and jumped Bradley slightly ahead of Gore, 49% to 43%.

Even in politically rabid New Hampshire, though, many of these commitments don’t yet seem hardened. For example, only about one-third of the voters for all the leading candidates said they were certain to vote for their current preference. Even more telling perhaps was a separate question asking New Hampshire voters to identify in their own words what specific issue position attracted them to their candidate.

Just over one-third of Bush voters answered either “nothing” or said they weren’t sure; the answers after that splintered, with 14% picking education, 11% taxes and 9% citing moral integrity and honesty.

McCain’s support appears tethered to more specific impressions: Just 17% answered nothing or that they were unsure. Nearly one-third of McCain’s backers cited his integrity and honesty, while about 1 in 6 picked campaign finance reform and another 1 in 10 his support of a strong military.

On the Democratic side, nearly 40% of Bradley and Gore supporters alike could not cite a specific issue that drew them to their candidate. Of the two, Gore has cut a somewhat sharper issue profile, with 18% of his backers identifying health care and 14% education. The top choices for Bradley backers were integrity (11%) and health care (10%).

To gauge how voter assessments of the candidates may evolve as the candidates’ views become better known, the survey measured reactions to a series of issue positions--without identifying the candidates who hold them. In each case, the campaigns may well reshape public opinion on these issues with further arguments, but the survey pinpointed the initial reactions they are likely to confront.

Take Bradley. Three-quarters of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters say they are more likely to back a candidate who wants to spend at least $65 billion a year providing health care for the uninsured, as Bradley has proposed. But 53% of New Hampshire primary voters say they are less likely to support a candidate who opposed the 1996 welfare reform bill--as Bradley did.

Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are somewhat more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a single-rate flat tax, as Forbes has proposed. They are significantly more likely to favor a candidate who supports school vouchers (a group that includes all of the leading GOP contenders). And they are somewhat more likely to favor a candidate, like McCain, who wants to ban unregulated “soft money” political contributions, though that issue moves fewer voters than the other two.

Though none of the remaining GOP contenders is likely to take advantage of it, a plurality of New Hampshire Republicans is less likely to support a candidate, such as Bush, who endorses laws allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons. (That looms as a larger potential vulnerability for Bush in a general election, with 48% of all registered voters saying they are less likely to support a candidate who backs concealed weapon laws and 20% saying they are more likely.)

Issues, of course, are only one of the ways voters measure potential presidents. After the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal and President Clinton’s impeachment, it’s clear that personal characteristics remain concerns in many Americans’ minds. When asked to name the most important trait they are looking for in the next president, few New Hampshire voters in either party named qualities like vision, compassion or the ability to bring change. Instead, in both parties, 7 in 10 picked honesty and integrity as their priorities. (Nationally, the numbers were similar.)

The survey then sought to measure how the national sample of voters assesses the personal qualities of the leading candidates. McCain’s numbers proved difficult to compare because so many voters in the national survey said they didn’t know him well enough to venture an opinion.

The remaining contenders--Bush, Bradley and Gore--draw similar ratings for honesty and integrity, and for empathy. Gore and Bush win comparable marks for their ability to conduct foreign affairs, with Bradley lagging (partly because so many more respondents were unsure). When voters were asked if the candidates--each ranked individually and without comparison--were “qualified to be president,” Bush gets higher marks than Gore. Bradley lags behind Gore, again partly because of a higher rate of indecision.

The most striking difference came on questions of leadership. Fully 70% said they consider Bush a strong leader, while 48% felt that way about Bradley (even with a large amount undecided) and just 44% about Gore. The vice presidency presents its occupants to the country in an inherently subordinate role, and other No. 2s--such as Bush’s father, George Bush--also faced similar skepticism about their strength early in their presidential bids.

For Gore, the critical question in all these numbers may be whether these doubts are generic to his office--or specific to him personally. If it’s the former, voters may look at him in a new light should he emerge as his party’s nominee. If it’s the latter, Gore could spend much of next year in the dark.

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The Playing Field

The presidential favorites nationwide don’t do nearly as well in New Hampshire, a Times Poll found.

Among Republican Primary or Caucus Voters

BUSH

Nation: 59%

New Hampshire: 44%

MCCAIN

Nation: 13%

New Hampshire: 36 %

FORBES

Nation: 5%

New Hampshire: 8%

Note: The question listed all major candidates; results are shown only for the top three.

Among Democratic Primary or Caucus Voters

GORE

Nation: 52%

New Hampshire: 43%

BRADLEY

Nation: 34%

New Hampshire: 42%

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Honest, Strong, Caring?

Percentage of registered voters who agreed the candidates have these qualities:

GORE

Qualified to be president

New Hampshire: 67%

Nation: 61

Honesty and integrity

New Hampshire: 64%

Nation: 63%

Strong leadership ability

New Hampshire: 39%

Nation: 44%

Cares about people like you

New Hampshire: 59%

Nation 55%

Can handle foreign affairs

New Hampshire: 50%

Nation: 51%

BRADLEY

Qualified to be president

New Hampshire: 65%

Nation: 54%

Honesty and integrity

New Hampshire: 75%

Nation: 62%

Strong leadership ability

New Hampshire: 55%

Nation: 48%

Cares about people like you

New Hampshire: 66%

Nation 52%

Can handle foreign affairs

New Hampshire: 38%

Nation: 37%

BUSH

Qualified to be president

New Hampshire: 64%

Nation: 70%

Honesty and integrity

New Hampshire: 65%

Nation: 64%

Strong leadership ability

New Hampshire: 67%

Nation: 70%

Cares about people like you

New Hampshire: 51%

Nation 51%

Can handle foreign affairs

New Hampshire: 40%

Nation: 54%

MCCAIN

Qualified to be president

New Hampshire: 62%

Nation: 37%

Honesty and integrity

New Hampshire: 74%

Nation: 42%

Strong leadership ability

New Hampshire: 63%

Nation: 37%

Cares about people like you

New Hampshire: 62%

Nation 38%

Can handle foreign affairs

New Hampshire: 53%

Nation: 34%

*McCain had a high percentage of “don’t know” responses among national voters.

**Bradley had a high percentage of “don’t know” responses on the foreign affairs question among New Hampshire and national voters.

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Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,800 adults nationally, including 1,430 registered voters. Among the registered voters 604 said they planned to vote in the Republican primary or caucus and 650 planned to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. The poll also sampled 882 adults in the state of New Hampshire, including 641 registered voters. Among the registered voters were 320 voting in the Republican primary and 249 voting in the Democratic primary. The poll was conducted by telephone November 13 to 18. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all possible exchanges. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Both samples were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region, as well as New Hampshire registration. The margin of sampling error for the national sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for New Hampshire it is 4 points. In the national sample, Democratic and Republican subsamples have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points each. For New Hampshire, the error for those subgroups is 6 points each. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

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More Times Poll results available on https://www.latimes.com/timespoll