Republicans Gazing Into the Crystal Ball

So what will it be? Another successful stand by the GOP to preserve its majority in Congress? Or a banner year, again, for California Democrats who in 1998 won about every important state election in sight?

As Campaign 2000 looms, it’s conceivable that California will not only play a key role in the makeup of the next Congress but could, by itself, produce enough Democratic victories to erase the Republican’s five-year hold on the House.

“They could pick up all five seats in California, if they are really lucky,” GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum said with an anxious chuckle.

Pasadena Republican James Rogan, long a target of Democrats, gave them more ammunition than ever when he took center stage in the impeachment proceedings against President Clinton.

San Diego’s Brian Bilbray may be in the same leaky boat, having also been a vocal supporter of ousting Clinton.

With Palo Alto’s Tom Campbell now a candidate for U.S. Senate, Republicans face a sudden contest to keep his congressional seat in the GOP column.

And across the state there are several other Republican-held seats that could be at risk. Steven Kuykendall, for example, could be in for a fight if former congresswoman Jane Harman, as many expect, mounts a campaign to return to that South Bay seat.

‘I think it is very likely that California will determine which party controls the House,” said longtime Democratic consultant Roy Behr. “It is hard to see how the Democrats win the House back if they don’t pick up a few seats here. And it is hard to see how the Republicans maintain control if they lose four or five seats here.”

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How did this happen?

Well, the sheer size of California’s delegation, with 52 members, makes it the statistically logical place for some seats to change hands. Term limits. Normal turnover. Shifting demographics. All of those help turn Democratic seats to Republican and vice versa.

Then, there are defining moments in politics that can have lasting repercussions. Some, like the impeachment debate, may run deep with voters in select races. Other lingering issues may include a Latino backlash against Republicans over the Pete Wilson administration’s campaign for Proposition 187 against illegal immigrants and Proposition 209 against affirmative action in state hiring.

And there are the ongoing events in Washington that, depending on the time and topic, can seize the imagination of voters and turn Congress on its ear. Five years ago, anti-incumbent fervor propelled a historic turnaround in Congress. Today, Democrats hope to retake the House by, among other things, charting a new course for a government suddenly awash in revenue.

“Look at the whole idea of dealing with the surplus--the Democrats have absolutely seized the higher ground on that issue,” said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State. “Look at the polls. . . . Republicans in Congress talk about tax cuts, but people [want] to use the money to pay down the debt, to save Social Security, to rejuvenate foundering programs like Safe Streets.

“Those issues just resonate so doggone well,” Gerston said.

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Not everyone foresees a Democratic takeover.

“I don’t think they are going to do as well as they think they will,” said Ken Khachigian, a veteran Republican strategist. “No. 1, incumbency is still an extraordinary” advantage.

What’s more, he said, the seats most often mentioned as Democratic targets are now held by Rogan, Bilbray and Kuykendall--”some of our best campaigners, guys who are good on the stump,” Khachigian said.

Khachigian believes that next year’s GOP ticket in California will be helped immensely by a strong national ticket.

Four years ago, the party’s standard-bearer was Bob Dole. In 1998, it was gubernatorial candidate Dan Lungren. Both fared poorly.

“We had two really bad [election] years,” Khachigian said. “And if the guys we have in those congressional seats survived those years, they are bound to do better in 2000, largely because the top of the ticket will be a lot better.

“If the elections were held tomorrow, I would be a little concerned because there is not much Republican momentum,” he said. “But . . . Republican momentum will come from a national effort.”

Perhaps. But some argue that a strong national ticket could actually work against the GOP’s hope to keep control of Congress.

Gary C. Jacobson, political science professor at UC San Diego, said a strong campaign by the Republican presidential contender could mean GOP control of both the White House and Congress for the first time since Dwight Eisenhower.

“If I were a Democrat, I would be reminding people of that,” he said. “I’d be asking them: ‘Do you really want to give Republicans all this power?’ ”