Drop in State’s White Population Reverses

For the first time since the deep recession of the early 1990s, more whites are again migrating to California than leaving, mirroring a well-established trend among other ethnic groups, according to estimates to be released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Five years of net “white flight” from the state stopped in 1997 and had reversed by mid-1998, when an estimated 32,000 more whites lived in California than the year before, the new data show.

Demographers and economists said the population trend is another indication that, because of its booming economy, California is regaining its place as a magnet for educated, affluent workers, many of whom are white.

“The recovery and economic expansion are making California once again attractive to workers from around the country of all races,” said Ted Gibson, chief economist for the state Department of Finance.

From 1991 to 1996, the total white population of the state dropped by about 615,000, to 16,478,000. Although the number of births among whites decreased somewhat in those years, the white population declined primarily because people moved out, particularly to states such as Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Oregon and Colorado.

“There is some good evidence that what we lost in the early to mid-1990s was a lot of people in the defense industry and that there were also a lot of retired people who sought retirement in other states where they could live more cheaply,” said Tom Lieser, executive director of the UCLA Anderson Business Forecast.

The movement of the white population is only a faint blip on California’s demographic radar screen when compared to the major trend of the decade--the explosive growth of the Latino and Asian populations. The numbers of both groups jumped again in the year ending July 1, 1998, the new census data show.

But the turnaround in the white population’s decline will slightly slow California’s steady march toward becoming a state in which minorities are the majority--something that should happen before 2005.

And the movement of whites into the state represents a change from recent history, when virtually every state in the nation gained more residents--regardless of ethnicity--from California than they lost to the state.

Now, as the decade draws to a close, California is experiencing a net gain in population from 17 other states. Those include New York, Illinois, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Ohio, said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Milken Institute in Santa Monica.

“The new numbers suggest that there is a real turnaround,” said Frey, a national authority on domestic migration. “The state has left the doldrums of the early ‘90s.”

The Census Bureau and demographers have no ready explanations for why people would move to California from states with strong economies of their own.

“I think California has a much more diverse economy than New York, for instance,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. “If you are going to get into entertainment or emerging technologies, California is the place. . . . The luster is back.”

The Census Bureau estimates the flow of various ethnic groups using birth and death records and reports from the Immigration and Naturalization Service. It then factors in migration within the United States, using income tax returns and Social Security records.

Because the tax and Social Security records, in particular, are incomplete or flawed, demographers continually tinker with the ethnic and racial estimates. Previous population estimates dating to the start of the decade were revised with the release of Tuesday’s new figures. Numbers for 1999 will not be released until next summer.

Experts at the state Finance Department also believe that the number of white residents began to rebound in 1997, well after the economic recovery had begun.

“It takes people a while to make those movement decisions,” said Linda Gage, chief of the demographic research unit for the department. “It takes time for people to figure out that things have changed, to sell a house, get children out of school. . . . There can be a lag of nine to 18 months before people move.”

The story of California at the end of the century will remain one of minority groups expanding in vast numbers. Driven by higher birthrates and immigration, the number of Latinos in California has increased more than 30% this decade, to 10.1 million. The number of Asians and Pacific Islanders has jumped nearly a third during the decade, to 3.9 million.

In the year ending July 1, 1998, that pattern continued. The Latino population jumped by 312,500, while the number of Asian/Pacific Islanders was up 113,400.

Latinos continue to occupy the low end of education and wage scales, according to a state report released in August. Native-born Latinos earned about $7,000 a year less than non-Latinos, and were far less likely to attend college than other groups.

The modest rebound in the white population will not reverse California’s metamorphosis into a “majority minority” state.

Wednesday’s census estimates show that whites constitute a bare majority of California’s population--16,511,020 of the 32,667,000 residents. Demographers estimate that, sometime before 2005, the combined number of blacks, Latinos, Asians and other minorities will total more than the number of whites.

The state’s white flight reversal has not yet reached Los Angeles County. The total white population has dropped every year this decade in the state’s most populous county, from 3,611,000 in 1990 to 3,112,000 in the 1998 census figures.

The census report gives no indication how many of the whites leaving Los Angeles County went to other counties in California or to other states or countries.

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Trend Reversal

For the first time since the early 1990s, California’s white population has increased rather than declined.

16,511,020

Source: U.S. Census