Panel Explores Scenarios for Airport Use

The number of passengers using Southern California airports is expected to double by 2020, but if more airports aren’t expanded or built, how will the estimated 158 million airport customers that year be served?

The question is at the heart of a pending study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, and the agency’s answers could prove a potent weapon for those who oppose the massive Los Angeles International Airport expansion and construction of a new airport at the former Marine Corps air base at El Toro.

Foes of bigger airports hope the SCAG study will show that other airports can assume much of the projected demand in 21 years.

“Rather than having a forecast debate, we should be looking at how we move these passengers and take full advantage of the [other] airports we have today,” said Lake Forest Councilman Richard T. Dixon, an opponent of both an El Toro airport and LAX expansion.

But Los Alamitos Councilman Ronald Bates, who supports both projects, said new airport usage numbers being analyzed by SCAG may provide even more argument for the necessity of the projects.

“I think we’ll find that the economic impact on the region [without El Toro and LAX expansion] would be less than desirable,” Bates said.

Dixon and Bates both are members of SCAG, the agency that controls federal and state funding for regional transportation projects. Its forecasts typically become the backbone for plans made by city and county governments.

The agency, governed by 75 elected officials from Southern California cities and counties, will release an update on its airport projections when its aviation task force meets Thursday in Los Angeles. The task force will recommend whether the new information should be adopted as part of the regional transportation plan.

SCAG’s current projection of passenger demand is based on more than a dozen factors, including variables such as air fares, frequency of flights and travel time to the airport.

The brunt of the future load would be borne by LAX, the planned El Toro airfield and Ontario International Airport. SCAG predicts 22 million passengers would be using El Toro in 2020--triple the load of John Wayne Airport. LAX would grow from about 60 million passengers a year today to 94 million, and Ontario would serve 16 million.

That’s assuming, of course, that Southern California’s 12 airports will be expanded and El Toro will be built to accommodate the expected 158 million passengers then.

SCAG hasn’t worried before whether facilities would be built to handle all of its transportation predictions. But now, with communities opposed to bigger airports, the agency is acknowledging that airports might not grow with demand.

That means, Dixon said, that future demand must be “based in reality and not some wish list.”

SCAG has developed five scenarios--sets of assumptions--to use as it determines how many passengers can be served at Southern California airports in 2020.

Under all five scenarios, LAX would be capped at no more than 70 million passengers a year. Two alternatives look at what happens if El Toro isn’t built. One would cap John Wayne Airport at 15 million, more than twice what it now serves, and the rest would allow an unlimited number of passengers there.

Under three alternatives, a high-speed rail line--at an estimated cost of $6 billion--would take passengers from Irvine to Ontario International and/or March Air Force Base. Traffic at most other airports would be unlimited but still would be subject to practical and environmental restrictions.

The flaw in past SCAG planning is not in calculating how many people want to fly but in determining which airports they should use, said Dixon, who defends SCAG’s overall projections.

Orange County airport supporters, meanwhile, welcomed SCAG’s reexamination of its forecasts. New forecasts, particularly those limiting LAX, will just put more focus on the need for travel alternatives such as El Toro, they said.

“The demand is going to be there,” said Bruce Nestande, a former Orange County supervisor and president of the pro-El Toro group Citizens for Jobs and the Economy. “Southern California needs another airport.”

Still, some people are not convinced that just because airport demand exists it has to be met.

SCAG planners ran a “what if” scenario on their computers 18 months ago to see what would happen to demand if El Toro weren’t built or LAX weren’t expanded. They found that half of the new demand simply would disappear, said Tim Merwin, who was SCAG’s aviation program manager for 20 years before leaving late last year.

About a quarter of the demand would be redistributed to other airports and modes of travel, and another quarter would be served by airports in other regions.

Less service, though, means a loss of economic activity, Merwin said. SCAG estimates that airport-related businesses generate as much as $800 million in revenue a year for every 1 million passengers. For El Toro’s 22 million passengers predicted for 2020, that’s $17.6 billion.

Using the argument of economic stagnation, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan unveiled an ambitious plan last year to expand LAX, saying the region’s economic future demands more capacity, particularly for international flights and cargo.

But Riordan’s proposal for building a fifth runway at the airport was overwhelmed by residents’ opposition, causing him to scale back the project in June. The current plan, for 92 million passengers a year in 2020, carries a price tag of $10 billion and would require the relocation of nearly 250 businesses.

Expansion foes, led by Los Angeles Councilwoman Ruth Galanter, argue that LAX already shoulders too much of the burden for regional air travel. In fact, the international airports at Los Angeles and Ontario handle slightly more Orange County passengers, about 8 million a year, than John Wayne Airport itself serves.

Galanter and Dixon both have pointed to high-speed rail as a way of moving passenger demand to outlying airports that want the new business. SCAG already has chosen a rail route linking LAX, Union Station and Ontario. The link would cost $3.2 billion and would be completed in 2007.

Any rail alternatives, however, could face even tougher political challenges than building an airport. And most outlying airports are less attractive to the airline industry because they are farther from population centers, businesses and tourist attractions.

A study released this month by the Los Angeles Department of World Airports said Palmdale Airport, 60 miles north of Los Angeles, is simply too far away to provide much relief for LAX. At most, Palmdale could handle no more than 7 million passengers by 2020--a mere dent in the demand, the study found.

Besides, sending more passengers inland has its limits. Ontario International, for example, unveiled a new terminal last year that could handle 20 million passengers a year. But the Air Resources Board has restricted the amount of pollution in the air, thus limiting the number of passengers to 12 million.

By urging SCAG to review both LAX and El Toro projects, Dixon had hoped to enlist foes of LAX expansion in the fight against El Toro. He said he opposes adding 30 million passengers to LAX because the traffic gridlock alone would make it “easier to walk there.”

But so far, he’s had no luck winning Los Angeles allies.

“They clearly see El Toro as the solution to their problem,” he said.

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Airport Demand in 2020

With demand for air travel expected to climb in the next two decades, the Southern California Assn. of Governments is examining several possible scenarios, including how many passengers can be served if an El Toro airport isn’t built and Los Angeles International Airport isn’t expanded. A look at demand last year and estimates for 2020, in millions:

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Airport 1998 2020 Los Angeles Intl. 61.2 94.2 El Toro (proposed) * 22.2 Ontario International 6.4 15.9 Burbank 4.7 9.2 John Wayne 7.5 7.0 Long Beach 0.6 2.8 Norton AFB * 1.8 Point Mugu * 1.8 Palm Springs 1.3 1.7 March AFB * 0.9 Oxnard 0.1 0.2 Palmdale * 0.1 George AFB * 0.1 Total 81.8 157.9

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* Military or closed military airfields earmarked for civilian use.

Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments