New Study Has Bad News for Airport Foes : Aviation: Report galvanizes proponents’ claims that future passenger demand necessitates the El Toro project.

Failing to build an airport at El Toro and expand Los Angeles International would lead to a crush of passengers at other area airports, particularly John Wayne and Ontario International, a regional panel said Thursday.

Without El Toro or a larger LAX, John Wayne Airport would have to be rebuilt to handle four times as many passengers in 2020 as it now serves, and the newly expanded Ontario airfield would be pushed to triple in size, according to a report by the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

Even if a high-speed rail system were built between Irvine and Ontario International, it would barely put a dent in the number of passengers still wanting to fly from Orange County, the study found.

“This is a surprise,” said Lake Forest Councilman Richard T. Dixon, who is fighting plans to build an airport at the former El Toro Marine base. “I would have thought more people would have taken advantage of Ontario.”

Dixon said he had hoped the new forecasts would add ammunition to arguments that El Toro isn’t needed because passenger demand, which is expected to double to 158 million a year by 2020, could be handled at other airports.

Instead, the findings by SCAG, which controls state and federal funding for transportation projects, galvanized the arguments of those supporting El Toro’s construction--especially officials in Los Angeles County.

“Orange County has to carry its fair share. That’s the bottom line,” said Mike Stevens, president of LAX Expansion No, an anti-LAX expansion group based in Inglewood.

El Toro opponents, however, said the forecasts don’t take into account intangibles, such as advances in communications technology that will reduce the need for travel by 2020.

“Heck, 20 years ago, we didn’t even have fax machines,” said Meg Waters, spokeswoman for an eight-city South County coalition fighting the El Toro airport.

Dixon is among elected officials from 75 Southern California cities who make up SCAG’s regional council. While Dixon opposes El Toro, SCAG members from Los Angeles County cities likewise oppose plans to expand LAX by 30 million passengers a year. The airport handled about 61 million passengers last year.

What emerged from SCAG’s projections was evidence that most Southern Californians in 2020 would want to use LAX, Ontario and an airport in Orange County--either John Wayne or El Toro. The opening of three new airports in the Inland Empire did little to change the distribution of passengers.

Under one alternative, use of LAX would drop to about 44 million passengers a year if planes were forbidden to fly over Inglewood. Currently, planes are diverted from landing over the city between midnight and 6:30 a.m.

The SCAG task force that released the report will meet again next month, when it is expected to vote on whether to adopt all or part of the forecasts. If accepted, the forecasts would become part of the agency’s regional transportation plan, which is the blueprint for funding local transportation projects.

In the past, the agency has assumed that LAX would grow to 94 million passengers a year and El Toro would handle 22 million travelers by 2020.

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Orange County Supervisor Charles V. Smith said his county has to take responsibility for handling about 36 million domestic and international airline passengers in 2020.

Trying to move people to other airports by rail simply won’t work, said Smith, the board’s chairman and leader of its three-member voting bloc that has pushed plans for the El Toro airport.

But Steve Albright of the March Airport joint-powers authority disagreed. Many people who live in the Inland Empire drive 90 minutes to work in Orange or Los Angeles counties, he said.

“Why is there an assumption they won’t drive [that far] for a flight?” he asked.

The agency’s projections were based on more than a dozen factors, including variables such as air fares, the frequency of flights, destinations offered and travel times to each of the area’s 13 airports.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Future Flying

A mew regional study shows passengers will overwhelm existing airports if planners don’t build El Toro airport and expand Los Angeles International. Below are passenger counts and estimates, in millions, at six of the region’s 13 airports:

LAX

Actual 1998: 61.2

Est. 2020: 94.2

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 70.00

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 70.00

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 60.00

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 43.7

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: 70.0

*

El Toro (proposed)

Actual 1998: *

Est. 2020: 22.2

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 28.8

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 28.8

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 32.0

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 34.4

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: -

*

Ontario International

Actual 1998: 6.4

Est. 2020: 15.9

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 19.9

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 25.9

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 24.3

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 27.0

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: 30.6

*

John Wayne

Actual 1998: 7.5

Est. 2020: 7.0

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 9.5

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 9.4

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 9.8

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 10.1

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: 28.3

*

Burbank

Actual 1998: 4.7

Est. 2020: 9.2

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 9.7

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 9.7

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 9.7

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 9.7

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: 10.2

*

Long Beach

Actual 1998: 0.6

Est. 2020: 2.8

Alternative/Options

A) Assumes passenger limit at El Toro and minor LAX expansion: 3.0

B) Same as A but with rail link from LAX to Ontario: 3.0

C) Assumes no growth at LAX and no limit at El Toro: 3.0

D) Assumes permanent no-fly zone over Inglewood an no limit at El Toro: 3.0

E) Assumes no El Toro airport, a rail link between Irvine and Ontario, minor LAX expansion: 4.0

Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments