House Democratic Leader to Oppose China Trade Bill

The House Democratic leader is expected to announce this week that he will oppose a China trade bill that President Clinton has declared a top priority for his last year in office, party sources said Monday.

The decision by Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) comes nearly a month before a scheduled House vote on legislation that would extend to China full, permanent trading privileges with the United States--a step that, in turn, would help ease the communist-ruled nation’s full-fledged entry into the world trading community.

Gephardt informed the White House in advance of his position, two Democratic sources knowledgeable on the matter said.

“We regret Gephardt’s choice,” an administration official said late Monday. “We don’t think it’s a great surprise--and we still believe our case will prevail.”

By all accounts, the vote on China trade will be one of the year’s most closely fought. While the leadership of the Republican majority supports the measure, enough GOP members are expected to vote against it that significant support from the Democratic minority will be needed for passage.

Just how many Democrats will vote with Clinton is a matter of intense speculation and lobbying. More than a majority are expected to oppose the measure, party leaders say, based on past trade votes and new head counts.

One of the party’s strongest traditional constituencies, organized labor, vehemently opposes the deal on the arguments that it will cost American jobs, erode union bargaining power for higher wages and exploit Chinese workers who have scant labor rights.

In past years, Congress has made an annual decision on whether to extend normal trading relations to the Chinese. Legislation proposed by the Clinton administration, following up on a U.S.-China trade accord negotiated last year, would end that annual congressional review in favor of a permanent grant.

The second-ranking Democrat in the House, Rep. David E. Bonior of Michigan, is leading the charge against the trade bill. Publicly, Gephardt has remained neutral. But his aides said Monday that Gephardt plans a speech in St. Louis on Wednesday to detail his position on China trade.

In recent remarks to reporters, Gephardt has repeatedly emphasized how the China trade vote poses a dilemma for Democrats.

Such remarks reinforce the belief of many of the trade bill’s supporters that whether Gephardt attempts to bring a significant portion of his caucus into line with his own views will be at least as important as the position he stakes out himself.

Still, Gephardt’s announcement has been awaited by many Democrats who are undecided on the issue and eager to find a position that will do the party the least damage as it seeks to retake the House in the November elections. A swing of six seats from Republican to Democratic hands could make Gephardt the next House speaker.

Last week, thousands of union members came to Washington for a rally at the Capitol against the China trade bill organized by the AFL-CIO and the Teamsters. Gephardt, usually an ally of labor, did not attend. He was in Colorado for a gun-control event. But Bonior, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and several other Democrats were at the rally and spoke forcefully against the pact.

A House vote is scheduled the week of May 22.