‘94 Revolution Fades for GOP’s Senate Class of 1994

When Rick Santorum first ran for the Senate in 1994, he campaigned as a feisty outsider, scourge of congressional pay raises and perquisites, a conservative ready to rout the Washington liberal establishment.

The Pennsylvania Republican rode to a surprise victory on the same wave that gave the GOP control of both houses of Congress and established Newt Gingrich as the party’s leading force.

But now, as Santorum and other Republicans who washed into the Senate on the ’94 GOP tsunami seek reelection for the first time, many find that they are swimming upstream.

Santorum and fellow freshman Republicans from Missouri, Minnesota and Michigan are near the top of the list of most-endangered GOP senators. And their fate will be crucial to whether the party retains its firm five-seat control of the Senate in November.

The vulnerability of the Senate’s “Gingrich generation” shows just how much the political landscape has changed in the last six years. The anti-Washington, anti-tax mood of 1994 that swept so many Republicans into office has given way to boom-economy complacency and a more benign view of government, analysts say.

Thus, the key to success for Santorum and Sens. John Ashcroft of Missouri, Rod Grams of Minnesota and Spencer Abraham of Michigan may be the degree to which they can negotiate the sea change that has occurred.

“They are all children of the Republican revolution,” said one top GOP strategist who asked not to be named. “Some have adjusted and some have not.”

Distancing Themselves From Gingrich Model

In each of these pivotal Senate races, Democrats have adopted a common strategy: portraying the incumbent as a conservative extremist out of step with voters. Conversely, most of the targeted Republicans are working to carve a different image, as are many of their GOP colleagues in the presidential campaign and House contests.

“I am a ‘compassionate conservative,’ ” Santorum declares, seizing the catch phrase of George W. Bush’s presidential campaign.

“The Gingrich revolution model is a nonstarter in 2000, and a lot of these guys are trying to change the chassis,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster. “They are not running against government the way they did in 1994.”

Nine new, generally conservative Republicans won full six-year Senate terms as part of the GOP’s ’94 landslide. Many won by substantial margins in reliably Republican states such as Wyoming and Arizona. But others squeaked by with wafer-thin margins in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania that usually elect Democrats or moderate Republicans. Defeating those vulnerable Republicans in 2000 formed the core of the Democrats’ strategy for shrinking the GOP’s 55-45 hold on the Senate.

The Democrats are aiming for a replay of 1986, when several of their candidates defeated a batch of freshman Senate Republicans first elected in 1980 as Ronald Reagan won the White House. The Democratic victories in ’86 enabled the party to regain control of the Senate it had lost in 1980.

“Landslides always produce a vulnerable group of members of Congress,” said Sen. Robert Torricelli (D-N.J.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “The mortality rate is usually very high.”

Campaigns Take Different Tacks

Here is a look at the four most politically precarious members of the GOP’s Senate class of ’94 and their strategy for surviving their first reelection bid:

* Ashcroft seems to be hoping that Missouri voters will forget his brief flirtation with a presidential run last year, a campaign that sought to build a base among religious conservatives and featured a proposed $4-trillion tax cut over 10 years. Since dropping the White House bid, which was little-noticed outside his home state, he has struck a more moderate tone. These days, for example, he talks less about big tax cuts and more about saving Social Security surpluses and shoring up Medicare.

His campaign denies he has abandoned any of his conservative principles, but his Democratic opponent, Gov. Mel Carnahan, accuses Ashcroft of trying to run away from his “ultra-right-wing” views.

With both Ashcroft and Carnahan well known throughout the state and well financed, this figures to be one of the year’s most hotly contested races.

* Abraham of Michigan also seems to be running toward the political center. During recent Senate debates on the budget, he broke with GOP leaders to support a Democratic amendment that would have required a Medicare prescription drug benefit be enacted before taxes could be cut (the proposal failed).

Abraham also has asked for campaign help from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who won the GOP’s Michigan presidential primary in February with a reform-oriented platform that attracted droves of independent and Democrat voters.

Abraham could use a boost from McCain because Democrats have fielded a formidable challenger, Rep. Debbie Stabenow. Abraham enjoys a strong fund-raising edge, but the energetic Stabenow is viewed as the better campaigner.

* Grams of Minnesota, in contrast to Ashcroft and Abraham, has shown little sign of retreating from the staunch conservative principles he espoused in the 1994 campaign. He has remained one of the Senate’s most unwavering tax-cut advocates. He supports private investment of Social Security funds and was one of 26 senators to oppose a treaty banning chemical weapons.

“You’re elected on the promises you make and reelected on the promises you keep,” said Grams campaign spokesman Kurt Zellers.

Grams’ record appears out of step with a state that traditionally has elected either moderate Republicans or liberal Democrats to the Senate. But, so far, he has benefited from the lack of a clear front-runner in a crowded Democratic field vying to oppose him. A late primary--Democrats will not settle on their candidate until September--also works to Grams’ advantage.

Of all the vulnerable GOP freshmen, analysts say, Santorum has done the most to strengthen his home state position. Democrats once saw him as a sitting duck: He was elected with barely 49% of the vote in 1994 and is more conservative than the moderate Republicans that Pennsylvanians tend to elect to statewide office. But now Santorum is in better political shape than many expected.

Democrats’ biggest gift to Santorum was to have a divisive primary that earlier this month anointed their party’s candidate, Rep. Ron Klink.

“The primary fight just gave him a year to do what he needed to do: build a bank account, travel the state and shore up his own base,” said Jennifer E. Duffy, analyst of Senate elections for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

Santorum has not changed his conservative voting record but has sought to present a more moderate image. For instance, he made a name for himself as a passionate foe of abortion rights, leading the charge for a ban on procedures that opponents call “partial-birth abortions.” But now he does not mention the issue when asked to review his first-term record for the campaign. Instead, he cites his support for legislation to bolster Social Security and help Pennsylvania farmers.

“Everyone says I’m an extremist,” Santorum said. “But if you look at the record of what we’ve accomplished, it’s pretty mainstream.”

Republican strategists also say that Klink’s nomination will make it more difficult for Democrats to portray Santorum as a right-wing extremist. Like Santorum, Klink opposes abortion rights and most gun control measures.

But Klink said that will not stop him from trying to disabuse Pennsylvania voters of the notion that Santorum is anything but a conservative’s conservative. And to that end, Klink resurrected the name Democrats still like to link to their Republican foes.

“It’s my responsibility to point out his record: However Newt Gingrich wanted him to vote is the way Rick Santorum has voted,” Klink said.

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Rating GOP

Senate Chances

Here is how political analysts rate races of freshman GOP senators that will help determine whether Republicans maintain their firm control of the Senate:

* Tossups

Michigan: Spencer Abraham

Minnesota: Rod Grams

Missouri: John Ashcroft

* Leaning Republican

Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum

* Solid Republican

Arizona: Jon Kyl

Maine: Olympia J. Snowe

Ohio: Mike DeWine

Tennessee: Bill Frist

Wyoming: Craig Thomas

Source: The Cook Political Report