The Incredibly Shrinking Republican Bench

Just what the state Republican Party needs: a scandal. With George W. Bush the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee and an effort underway to soften the mean-spirited image that has dogged Republicans in the past few elections, this was to have been a time for party building.

Then came charges that state Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush improperly and possibly illegally used penalties collected from insurance companies that had mishandled Northridge earthquake claims to set up nonprofit foundations. Quackenbush has also been slammed for questionable use of campaign contributions taken from the same insurance companies he regulates.

There’s no denying that Quackenbush, one of only two GOP statewide officeholders, has stepped in it. The other, Secretary of State Bill Jones, is in his party’s doghouse because he deserted Bush during the primaries and endorsed Arizona Sen. John McCain. (Jones has since backed Bush.)

Quackenbush’s apparent lapses and Jones’ stumble highlight the virtual absence of a Republican bench in the nation’s largest state. That creates a dilemma for the GOP. Modern political history shows that it helps a candidate running for California governor to jump into the race from another statewide office. From Lt. Gov. Gray Davis’ victory over Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in 1998, to the 1946 victory of incumbent Gov. Earl Warren over Atty. Gen. Robert W. Kenny, most major-party gubernatorial nominees came from lower constitutional offices. One notable exception was Ronald Reagan, who went to Sacramento via Hollywood.

In six gubernatorial elections from 1946 to 1998, there was no incumbent running. In all, the winning candidate emerged from another statewide slot, five from lower constitutional offices. Pete Wilson moved over from the U.S. Senate in 1990. Democrats currently hold seven of the state’s top slots, including both U.S. Senate seats. If the GOP’s prime contenders are weakened, how will Republicans break the Democratic stranglehold on state government?

True, the elected office of insurance commissioner hasn’t been the political springboard some hoped--or feared--it would be when it was created by Proposition 103, which passed in 1988. John Garamendi, the first elected commissioner, lost the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary to then-state Treasurer Kathleen Brown. Now Quackenbush’s practices as commissioner threaten his political life.

If Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose), the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, is not humiliated in his uphill battle against Sen. Dianne Feinstein, he might be politically viable in 2002. But moderate Campbell’s idiosyncratic political style could be difficult to sell statewide.

Rep. James E. Rogan (R-Glendale) was tagged early on by conservatives as a rising political star. Speculation was that Rogan’s highly visible role as a House impeachment manager would help position him for a run for statewide office in 2002. But now his reelection to Congress is in question, not because of his impeachment stance, but because he faces a tough fight in a district becoming more Democratic and diverse.

Should the national GOP retain control of the House, state Republicans might look to Washington for help. Reps. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) and David Dreier (R-San Dimas), already part of the House GOP leadership, could move to elevate their statewide profiles.

Local elected officials are already stepping up to fill legislative seats vacated by term-limited incumbents. Big-city mayors may get on the political fast track, jumping over the Legislature to run for constitutional office. Historically, Democrats have plumbed their urban bases in Los Angeles and San Francisco for gubernatorial nominees. Where might Republicans go?

Outgoing San Diego Mayor Susan Golding, elected in 1992, appeared to be another rising GOP star. But she fumbled badly in the battle over a new football stadium, and her try for the party’s 1998 U.S. Senate nomination fizzled. The candidates squaring off in the November runoff to replace her are both Republicans.

L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, who’s termed out in 2001, flirted with running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 1998, but demurred. Steve Soboroff, the only registered Republican in the race to succeed him as mayor, is trailing badly in early polls.

Deputy Dist. Atty. Steve Cooley, a Republican, has forced his boss, Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti, into a November runoff and leads him, a Democrat, by a wide margin in early polls. A win could position Cooley to run for state attorney general, a time-tested launching pad for gubernatorial candidacies.

Wherever Republicans turn to rebuild, they face tough obstacles. California is close to becoming a one-party state. Democrats control the major statewide offices and both houses of the Legislature; they constitute a majority of the congressional delegation. It is likely Democrats will control the 2001 reapportionment process, and that could further stymie Republicans.

Democratic dominance in Sacramento has led to a huge imbalance in campaign fund-raising. Even Assembly GOP leader Scott Baugh (R-Huntington Beach) admitted that Democrats have “boatloads of money.”

There are opportunities out there for Republicans looking to reverse their political fortunes. The blanket primary could produce more moderate GOP nominees, who can help the party develop a bench more acceptable to centrist California.

The GOP Latino caucus offers possibilities. Even as Republicans were losing miserably in 1998, four of their Latino legislative candidates won. Rod Pacheco of Riverside, a moderate beginning his second term, was elevated to GOP Assembly leader. But Pacheco lasted only three months in that job; he was ousted by the more conservative Baugh.

Baugh insists the GOP bench will gain strength. “These things come and go in cycles,” he says, and 1998 “was a catastrophic year for Republicans.” However, he did not note it was “catastrophic” because statewide Republicans were out of step with voters on major issues.

Again, California political history offers an object lesson. In 1962, incumbent Gov. Pat Brown defeated former Vice President Richard M. Nixon, the GOP gubernatorial nominee. Secretary of State Frank C. Jordan, first elected in 1943, was the only Republican left in partisan constitutional office. In 1966, Republicans nominated a political neophyte, Reagan, to challenge Brown. Reagan clobbered the governor, and only one Democrat, Atty. Gen. Tom Lynch, survived. Reagan, far more than Brown, understood the shift in state politics.

If state Republicans want to contest the 2002 state elections, maybe they will have to turn again to an outsider to lead the charge. Bring on “The Terminator”? *