Tide of New Kindergartners Ebbs

The swelling of Orange County school enrollments appears to be easing off, with kindergarten enrollment hovering at the same level for three consecutive years and a similar pattern shaping up for the coming academic year.

Two of the county’s most crowded school districts--Anaheim City and Capistrano Unified--actually expect lower numbers of kindergartners this fall.

Through most of the 1990s, portable classes sprang up on school campuses as growing enrollment and a call for smaller class sizes put a squeeze on space. Capistrano’s newest campuses are stretched beyond capacity on the day they open. And Anaheim City is on a year-round, multitrack system, with students starting classes at different dates and times of day to maximize the use of existing classrooms.

“Our studies show that over the next couple of years, the bulge that is currently in first, second and third grades will move through the school district, but the incoming kindergarten classes will be a little smaller,” said Paul Burkhart, an Anaheim City administrator. According to state Department of Education figures, kindergarten enrollment in the county has stayed fairly constant during the last three years. From 1998 to 1999, for example, the kindergarten population grew by less than 0.2%.

By contrast, increases of 6.7% and 2.4% were posted in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 school years.

“We have definitely seen a lot of leveling off in our enrollment,” said Trish Montgomery, a Westminster School District spokeswoman. “We do think we’re going to be in a leveling-off period for a few years.”

Westminster school officials expect a slight decrease, about 20 fewer kindergartners this fall than last year, or a total of 1,195 students, Montgomery said.

The anticipated numbers are only estimates, though, and, as a common expression among district administrators goes: You don’t know how many students you have until you count the whites of their eyes.

The numbers are the result of an aging baby boomer generation, entering the twilight of its child-bearing years. Several school district officials said their lower projections for kindergarten enrollment were based on the decreasing number of births in the county.

“The youngest baby boomers were born in 1964, so they’re going to be 36 years old now,” said Mary Heim, a state demographer. “The generation following the baby boomers is a much smaller cohort of people, so even though they’re having babies at close to the same rates, there’s just fewer of them.”

Peak fertility years are from age 20 to 35, Heim said.

Heim also suggested that kindergarten enrollments may be low because the state’s compulsory education laws do not apply to children until they are 6. And one educator pointed out that many parents send their children to private or parochial schools for kindergarten before enrolling them in public schools.

But these explanations do not account for the shift in growth rates from the mid-1990s to the present.

For districts expecting some relief from the rapid enrollments of recent years, it means a chance to catch up.

“In the ‘90s, we added something like 60 portables” and opened two elementary schools, said Jerry Buchanan, an assistant superintendent in Huntington Beach. Now, instead of doing more building, the district can start fixing up its 1970s-era facilities.

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Kindergarten Growth Slows

Enrollment growth in the county’s kindergarten classes has slowed in the last few years, as baby boomers age beyond child-bearing years.

Percentage Change in Kindergarten Enrollment, by academic year

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Number Enrolled Difference 1994 35086 4.19% 1995 37452 6.74% 1996 38361 2.43% 1997 38743 1.00% 1998 38747 0.01% 1999 38814 0.17%

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Kindergarten Enrollment, by District

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99-00 00-01 % Change District Anaheim City 2963 2902 -61 Buena Park 704 725 +21 Cypress 610 620 +10 Fountain Valley 613 600 -13 Huntington Beach City 693 693 0 La Habra City 777 788 +11 Lowell Joint 335 340 +5 Magnolia 990 1024 +34 Ocean View 1023 1115 +92 Savanna 387 395 +8 Westminster 1218 1195 -23 Brea-Olinda 381 392 +11 Capistrano 3230 3193 -37 Garden Grove 3992 3911 -81 Irvine 1411 1496 +85 Los Alamitos 560 600 +40 Newport-Mesa 1693 1723 +30 Placentia-Yorba Linda 1860 1860 0 Saddleback Valley 2666 2528 -138 Tustin 1355 1408 +53 Totals 27461 27508 +47

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NOTE: Information on kindergarten enrollment was not available from Centralia, Fullerton, LagunaBeach, Orange and Santa Ana Unified school districts

Sources: California Department of Education, school districts