With Lieberman, Gore Woos the California Center

It’s the center, stupid.

In 1992, the Clinton campaign mantra was, “It’s the economy, stupid.” This was posted in the campaign war room as a constant reminder to Clinton aides.

But in 2000, especially in California, it’s all about capturing the center. And that’s why the selection of Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman as Al Gore’s running mate makes so much sense in this state.

Californians have gotten into the habit of electing centrists at the top of the ticket: Gov. Gray Davis. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. President Clinton. All “new Democrats.” No old-style liberals. Even Republican Pete Wilson was elected governor while running as a centrist.

Sen. Barbara Boxer is a liberal exception, but she was able to paint her opponents as scary conservatives.

The center is where it’s at in California politics--a balance between the left on social and lifestyle issues (abortion, environment, guns) and the right on crime and taxes. Voters are centrist on spending; they’ll open the treasury for schools, highways and parks if they’re convinced the money won’t be wasted. Often it’s a hard sell.

Lieberman’s ideology fits right in here. He should help Gore in this crucial state, which offers one-fifth the electoral votes needed to win the presidency. And a new poll being released today indicates the Democratic candidate does indeed need help, despite the party’s assumption that he has a lock on California.

“Democrats cannot take California for granted,” says Mark Baldassare, pollster for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. “The conventional wisdom that the state is solidly Democratic is off the mark.”

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The pollster’s evidence is a new survey that shows Vice President Gore running only three points ahead of Texas Gov. George W. Bush, 40% to 37%, among likely voters in California. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee, pulls 8%, presumably from Gore. Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan is insignificant at 1%.

This poll was taken during the Republican convention, so there’s bound to be a Bush bump. It also was conducted before Gore chose Lieberman as his running mate. In one way, it illustrates Gore’s strength in California because during the polling, Bush was leading in national surveys by double digits. But California is a must-win state for Gore and there is data in this poll that will cause his strategists to shudder.

Among voters who are neither Democrat nor Republican--and they’re 19% of the California electorate--Nader draws nearly as much support as Gore. (Bush 33%, Gore 23%, Nader 21%.) Most voters in this group are independents--”decline to state”--who account for 14% of the electorate. Independents, according to Baldassare, tend to be more centrist than Democrats or Republicans.

In this survey, all voting groups were much more interested in issues--schools, Social Security, taxes, health care--than in the candidates’ character. That’s typical California. Even so, independents were a lot more concerned about character than were Democrats. And because one of Lieberman’s strengths is “character,” that could help nudge independents toward Gore.

“Gore has not been able to convince independents and moderates he has the leadership qualities they’re looking for,” Baldassare says. “He should be doing better among this group. They’re the voters who decide elections . . .

“If Gore finds himself in this same situation in October, he probably ought to send Lieberman out here.”

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Lieberman’s selection “certainly energizes the Jewish community in California,” says Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks), the first Jewish speaker in 73 years. He equates it with the energy former Gov. George Deukmejian gave California Armenians, inspiring them to become politically active.

“As we’ve assimilated into society, with anti-Semitism declining, our level of [political] support has diminished,” Hertzberg continues. “We’ve not been as involved in the fight. We don’t feel the threat’s as great. . . .

“I’ve talked to relatives. Even people who aren’t excited about Gore are excited about a Jewish vice president. They say, ‘Can you believe?’ ”

On paper, Lieberman looks like a California winner--centrist, independent thinker, strong character. He still needs to introduce himself to voters, however. Be likable.

In the end, people vote for a president. But a running mate can provide comfort and reassurance. Bush’s No. 2, Dick Cheney, is a great guy who’s extraordinarily competent and knowledgeable. Nevertheless, his right-wing voting record will trouble many Californians.

This campaign round goes to Gore. A bull’s-eye in the center.