White House Campaign Now a Game of Inches

Like competing weather systems, old alignments and new patterns are colliding to create a turbulent environment as the presidential campaign moves toward its final stages.

With the traditional benchmark of Labor Day approaching, both Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush are displaying a nearly matched set of strengths and weaknesses. Each is restoring some of his party’s traditional advantages--but also challenging for states or groups of voters that have seemed in recent years part of the other party’s base.

Post-convention polls suggest Gore is quickly reestablishing the recent Democratic advantage along the West Coast and in the Northeast. But he still faces a skeptical audience in the critical battlegrounds of the Midwest.

Meanwhile, even after Gore’s post-convention bounce, Bush retains a dominant lead in the polls among men, especially white men--but is suddenly struggling to hold the female voters his campaign long has targeted.

In these ways and more, the landscape for election 2000 is coming into sharper focus. With most national surveys showing the two men in a virtual dead heat, the latest signs all point toward an autumn of trench warfare between two closely matched rivals. And both sides are contesting an unusually broad range of states.

Bush has signaled his intention to battle not only for states President Clinton won twice (such as Michigan and Pennsylvania) but also Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, and possibly even West Virginia--states that not only were won by Clinton, but that Democrat Michael S. Dukakis carried in the 1988 presidential race.

Similarly, Gore’s trip to this steamy city Monday--his second to the state in less than a week--underscores his belief that he can swipe Florida, even though Democratic presidential nominees averaged less than 37% of the vote here from 1968 through 1992.

“It is a new election, and we don’t want to be trapped in old assumptions about how states perform,” says Gore senior advisor Tad Devine.

With the Nov. 7 election 10 weeks from today, here are some of the current trends.

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THE ELECTORAL MAP--Though Bush insists he intends to compete in both California and much of the Northeast, the first round of post-convention polls underscores the continued tilt of the coasts toward the Democrats.

At a time when Gore’s lead in the nation ranged from only one to three percentage points, polls released last week in California and New Jersey showed the vice president leading by 13 and 12 points, respectively. And a new poll in New York gives Gore an 18-point lead. These numbers suggest it will be difficult for Bush to overcome Gore’s built-in advantages in these states. Gore also restored his advantage in Minnesota, another traditional Democratic state, with the first post-convention poll giving him an eight-point lead. Strikingly, though, a poll in Michigan last week showed Gore ahead by just two points in a state Clinton won by double digits in 1996.

That may be a warning sign for Gore, who has struggled to win support from culturally conservative swing voters--especially men--in the Midwest. In the survey released last week by the Gallup Organization--which gave Gore a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over Bush--the vice president trailed the GOP nominee in the Midwest by nine points, more than in any other region.

Senior Democrats acknowledge that along with Michigan, Midwestern states such as Iowa, Wisconsin and Missouri may be considerably tougher for Gore than they were for Clinton. One reason is a little-discussed trend: A growing coolness toward Democrats in rural areas, especially in the wake of Clinton’s impeachment stemming from the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal. Indeed, there are large rural populations in virtually every Democratic-leaning state--from Oregon and Washington to Wisconsin and Michigan--that Bush is threatening to win back for the GOP.

“You have significant rural populations . . . where the values stuff is very significant,” says David Axelrod, a Chicago-based Democratic consultant. “We have to work harder with these rural voters, but the message that Gore has embraced and is campaigning on, the economic message, is what works with those voters.”

Even as they ride their post-convention wave, Gore strategists are not sanguine about recapturing any of the predominantly Southern and Mountain West states that Republican Bob Dole won in 1996. Though Gore aides have talked about competing for North Carolina and Georgia, neither was included among the 17 states where the vice president’s first general election ad aired last week. But aides say they may add those states to the mix later if Gore establishes a bigger national lead.

The one GOP stronghold Gore clearly has targeted, at least for now, is Florida, which Clinton won in 1996 after narrowly losing in 1992. Because Bush’s brother, Jeb, is governor, Republicans say they are confident of holding the state. But Gore has run at or above his national share of the vote in most Florida surveys this year--suggesting that in a close national race the state could tip either way.

“Florida is going to be competitive until the end,” predicts Jim Kane, editor of the nonpartisan Florida Voter Poll.

Bush--secure about his base of support throughout most of the South and Mountain West--is focusing almost entirely on states Clinton won. Of the 21 states where new Bush ads are running, only two--North Carolina and Georgia--voted Republican in 1996.

This emphasis partially reflects simple mathematical reality--Bush can’t reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win without retaking several states that voted for Clinton.

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THE VOTERS--The good news for Gore in post-convention polling is that he has made dramatic inroads among women. The bad news is that, depending on the survey, he has made little or virtually no progress among men.

Gore advisors say their private polling shows him gaining ground with both men and women. But most public surveys found Bush retaining daunting leads among men, especially white men, even as women moved sharply toward Gore.

“For white men, nothing happened at the [Democratic] convention,” said GOP pollster Bill McInturff.

The post-convention Gallup survey showed Bush still leading Gore by 26 percentage points among white men; a survey last week for the Republican National Committee by McInturff’s firm put Bush’s lead among this group at 29 points. By comparison, Clinton lost white men by just three points in 1992 and 11 in 1996, according to network exit polls.

As Clinton’s numbers show, Gore doesn’t need to win among white men--no Democratic nominee has done so in more than three decades. But if Gore can’t reduce Bush’s towering lead among men, the vice president will need to sustain a double-digit advantage among women to prevail.

In the end, that may be difficult against Bush--whose focus on education, and generally moderate tone, could make him an effective competitor for women’s votes.

“If Gore is going to win the election, he doesn’t have to carry men, but he has got to make it a little closer than it is right now,” says Kane. “Gore can’t rely just on women; it’s not going to happen.”

Gore advisors believe they can chip into Bush’s strength among male voters by making further inroads among African American and Latino men, as well as white men who belong to labor unions. But the challenge remains considerable.

“The only way Gore can get past even [in the national polls] is to move men, and men have been very, very stable [for Bush] since April,” said Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign’s polling director.

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THE ISSUES--Since the conventions, Gore may have made the most progress in shaping the campaign debate. Bush last week stumbled while trying to defend his plan to cut taxes by $1.3 trillion over 10 years. And Democrats note that Bush still hasn’t mentioned the tax-cut proposal--the centerpiece of his domestic agenda--in any of his general election advertising.

Instead, Bush late last week unveiled a new ad that struck many Democrats as defensive. In it, Bush pledges “no changes” in Social Security for seniors--but doesn’t mention his plan to partially privatize the program for younger voters. And the ad features Bush promising to “make prescription drugs available and affordable for every senior who needs them”--though he has not yet issued a specific plan to do so.

Democrats take the ad as a sign Bush is worried that Gore has gained the initiative on both Social Security and health care.

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Targeting Enemy Territory

As part of his strategy for winning the White House, Republican George W. Bush is seeking to win states that Democrats have carried in the last three presidential elections. Conversely, Democrat Al Gore is has targeted Florida, a state viewed as crucial to Bush’s hopes.

FLORIDA (25 electoral votes)

1988

Bush: 60.9%

Dukakis: 38.5%

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1992

Clinton: 39.0%

Bush: 40.9%

Perot: 19.8%

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1996

Clinton: 48.0%

Dole: 42.3%

Perot: 9.1%

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IOWA (7)

1988

Bush: 44.5%

Dukakis: 54.7%

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1992

Clinton: 43.3%

Bush: 37.3%

Perot: 18.7%

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1996

Clinton: 50.3%

Dole: 39.9%

Perot: 8.5%

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OREGON (7)

1988

Bush: 46.6%

Dukakis: 51.3%

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1992

Clinton: 42.5%

Bush: 32.5%

Perot: 24.2%

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1996

Clinton: 47.2%

Dole: 39.1%

Perot: 8.8%

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WASHINGTON (11)

1988

Bush: 48.5%

Dukakis: 50.0%

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1992

Clinton: 43.4%

Bush: 32.0%

Perot: 23.7%

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1996

Clinton: 49.8%

Dole: 37.3%

Perot: 8.9%

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WISCONSIN (11)

1988

Bush: 47.8%

Dukakis: 51.4%

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1992

Clinton: 41.1%

Bush: 36.8%

Perot: 21.5%

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1996

Clinton: 48.8%

Dole: 38.5%

Perot: 10.4%

Source: Federal Election Commission

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* PUSHING PRESCRIPTIONS

Gore, Lieberman press their proposal to add drug benefits to Medicare coverage. A14