SPLIT DECISION

By STEVE SPRINGER

Dec. 2, 2000 12 AM PT

LAS VEGAS —

For Tito, it’s over.

Unbeaten Felix Trinidad is about to experience the bitter taste of defeat.

His fragile chin is about to betray him one time too many.

His amazing recuperative powers are about to be exhausted.

The tumultuous cheers of his fellow Puerto Ricans are about to fade.

Tonight at the Mandalay Bay Events Center, in a 154-pound championship battle against Fernando Vargas of Oxnard, with Trinidad’s World Boxing Assn. title and Vargas’ International Boxing Federation crown on the line, Trinidad will lose.

By knockout.

If . . .

And it’s a big if because Vargas, although he should win this match of the undefeated, will have only a short window in which to do so, no more than five or six rounds.

Here are the keys to a victory for Vargas, a 9-5 underdog.

* Confidence. Vargas’ biggest problem when the opening bell rings will be inexperience. Trinidad is five years his senior at 27. Trinidad (38-0, 31 knockouts) has had nearly twice as many fights as Vargas (20-0, 18). In fact, Trinidad has had nearly as many title fights, 18, as Vargas has had professional fights.

Publicly, Vargas shakes off the concerns.

“When I fought Yory Boy Campas, I had had only 14 fights and nobody and their mother gave me a chance,” he said. “When I fought Raul Marquez, he had been through wars, had been a champion, but I showed him a thing or two. When I fought Ike Quartey, people said Main Events [Vargas’ promotional organization] was not smart for putting me in with him. I have been living and working with this my whole career. It’s nothing new.”

Be assured, tonight will be new. And Vargas had better be ready for it.

Talking the talk is one thing. Believing it is quite another.

Others have sometimes given Trinidad too much respect, based on his reputation. Oscar De La Hoya certainly did and it cost De La Hoya the decision in their 1999 fight.

Vargas must shake off the glare of the spectacle, he must not be awed by the importance of the moment and he must not be intimidated by his opponent.

Vargas is certainly no stranger to bruising physical challenges. His roughest fights might have been against overwhelming odds on the streets of Oxnard, where he fought and almost always, by his account, won, from the time he was old enough to walk down the block with his friends.

Vargas will soon discover that tonight offers a challenge like no other he has faced.

* Control. This has been Vargas’ strength. Regardless of the hype and hysterics he was engaged in before a fight, he has almost always undergone a surprising transformation when he stepped between the ropes.

Gone was the street tough who acted on emotion and anger. In his place was a cool, calculating professional.

Vargas lost some of that control in his last fight, against Ross Thompson, who infuriated Vargas by taking a swing at him in the prefight news conference.

Vargas could afford a brief lapse of composure against Thompson. He can’t afford it against Trinidad.

* Aggressiveness. Vargas must attack from the start.

That doesn’t mean just boring in blindly. It means boxing and moving, unleashing a barrage of punches from various angles.

Trinidad’s weakness is that he is a cold starter. Vargas has never been off his feet but Trinidad has gone down seven times, most often in the second round.

It is a small opening of vulnerability that Vargas must pursue.

* Killer instinct. Several fighters have had Trinidad in trouble but none has been able to finish him off.

Trinidad was a beaten fighter in the seventh and eighth rounds against De La Hoya, who was piling up points by out-boxing the charging Trinidad. But inexplicably, De La Hoya backed off in the last three rounds, dancing away his chances of victory.

David Reid floored Trinidad in the second round, but seemed so surprised at his success that he backed off, appearing afraid to press his luck.

Bad move.

Trinidad, given the time to recover, used the knockdown as a wake-up call to regain control of the fight.

Vargas has been a great finisher who goes for the jugular, denying a struggling fighter his last gasp.

Vargas must do that tonight. If he knocks Trinidad down early, if he rattles Trinidad’s suspect chin, there must be no hesitation, no mercy, no chance for Trinidad to pull another escape act.

If he follows these keys, Vargas will win.

But if the fight drags on into the seventh or eighth round, the momentum will shift. Slow starts are Trinidad’s weakness but fast finishes are his strength.

The longer the fight goes, the stronger Trinidad will become. And the less likely a victory by Vargas, because experience then will mean more than power.

De La Hoya showed that Trinidad can be out-boxed. Reid, among others, showed that Trinidad can be out-slugged.

Vargas can do both.

But he must do it quickly.

Vargas’ time has come. But it may last for only five rounds.

While Vargas came in at exactly the limit of 154 pounds during Friday’s weigh-in, Trinidad weighed a half-pound more. Given two hours to lose the extra weight, Trinidad returned 20 minutes later at 154.

Also on tonight’s card, Ricardo Lopez of Mexico (48-0-1, 35 knockouts) defends his IBF light-flyweight title against Ratanapol Vorapin of Thailand (38-5-1, 30), William Joppy (31-1-1, 23) defends his WBA middleweight championship against Guillermo Jones of Panama (26-2-1, 21), and Christy Martin (40-2-2, 30) fights a 10-round women’s bout against Sabrina Hall (10-1-1, 4).

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Tale of the Tape

The tale of the tape for Saturday night’s WBA-IBF junior middleweight unification title bout between champions Felix Trinidad and Fernando Vargas:

Trinidad

Record: 38-0, 31 KOs

Hometown: Cupey, Puerto Rico

Age: 27

Weight: 154

Height: 5-11

Reach: 73 1/2

Chest-Normal: 40 1/4

Chest-Expanded: 42