Water Agency Adopts Projections for 2020

Despite criticisms that its projections are unrealistic, a local agency adopted a plan on Wednesday to help satisfy water demands in the fast-growing Santa Clarita Valley for the next 20 years.

The plan adopted by the Castaic Lake Water Agency includes proposals to develop underground reservoirs, expand the use of recycled water and to use desalinated water.

Critics say the agency, which supplies wholesale water to four utilities serving the area, is overestimating its resources and underestimating future demand.

The number of households, for instance, are projected by the agency to nearly double by 2020 to 96,000. However, a separate projection by the Southern California Assn. of Governments--which serves as a federal- and state-recognized clearinghouse for regionally significant issues--estimates growth in the Santa Clarita Valley will triple in the same period to 149,214 households.

The plan could be revised early next year as a result of criticisms, but adoption was required this week in order to meet a state deadline, agency officials said.

A 1983 state law requires all urban water suppliers to show that they have a long-term, reliable supply of water to serve current and future customers. The plans can be instrumental in slowing or blocking new development when projections show that supplies are inadequate.

Santa Clarita city and Ventura County planning officials are among critics, as well as conservationists and some residents.

Ventura County officials and slow-growth advocates have been challenging the agency’s repeated assertions that it can meet the needs of future developments, including the 21,600-unit Newhall Ranch, the largest ever approved in Los Angeles County.

In all, about 70,000 new housing units are in the planning stage. The four water retailers now serve about 50,000 households.

The water agency is projecting the pace of development will increase from the average of 1,139 new units per year that were built over the last 10 years to an annual average of 2,240 new houses over the next 20 years.

In contrast, SCAG is projecting new development will grow at a rate of 3,725 households over the next 10 years and jump to 5,300 new households per year by 2020.

The agency, in its draft report, called the SCAG projections “unrealistic,” but changed the wording in the plan adopted this week to “different from actual historical experience.”

In a letter to the water agency, Ventura County officials scolded the agency and its consultants for discarding the SCAG projections. Ventura County Planning Director Keith Turner said that since all other agencies are developing plans based on SCAG projections, “then in 2020 the local roads, schools, sewage systems and other infrastructure will be built for 146,000 households, while the water systems and water supplies will only be available for 96,000 households.”

Ventura County and its supporters, including local conservation groups, won a ruling in June from a Kern County judge who temporarily blocked the Newhall Ranch until the developer, the Newhall Land & Farming Co., conducts further studies to guarantee that it has a reliable water supply.

Jeffrey Lambert, Santa Clarita director of planning and building services, urged in a letter that the water agency revise its estimates on population growth following release of data from the 2000 census early next year. Lambert said the city “intends to continue its review of the plan and provide additional comments to the agency in January.”

Officials of Santa Clarita and Ventura County, among others, chastised the water agency for allowing only a short period for review of the complex water plan document, released Nov. 22 in the midst of a crowded holiday schedule.

Critics charged that the Castaic Lake Water Agency was attempting to ramrod through a water management plan that could be used by developers to support proposals for new projects.

“It is only obvious that we are sucking this valley dry,” complained Allen E. Penrose, a Canyon Country resident who said he and neighbors rely on private water wells, which were not accounted for in the water management plan. In a letter to the agency, he had asked for an extension of the comment period.

However, agency officials on Wednesday said action by the agency this week does not block further reviews. Another hearing on the issue is scheduled Feb. 14.