Survey Detects Signs of Economic Slowdown

The county’s booming economy could begin to lose steam in 2000, and businesses are bracing themselves for a potential slowdown by year’s end, economists warned.

Slowly rising inflation, particularly in oil prices, and possible interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have slightly dimmed the confidence of county businesses, and could slow the economy, according to some experts.

“The business sentiment is positive,” said Bill Watkins, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, which conducted a survey of 243 Ventura County businesses.

“It’s just not as positive as it was a few years ago.”

Fewer than 20% of respondents said they expect business conditions to improve in the next six month, and only about 5% expected conditions to get better by 2004.

“I have a hard time seeing why consensus is fading,” Watkins said. “But, it is. I guess the expansion has been going on so long, you’re asking, ‘How long can it last?’ ”

The report, which tracked numerous indicators in 1999--everything from SAT scores and air quality to vacancy rates and median income--showed an economy that was still robust, even if area business confidence has declined a bit.

Since climbing out of the recession of the early 1990s and a near-crippling collapse of the Southern California real estate market, the Ventura County economy has made a sterling recovery, with soaring real estate sales, low unemployment, and increasing wages. The momentum should continue at least the first half of the year, economists said.

The average annual pay for workers in Ventura County was at a record high $34,956, up from the previous year’s $32,570, and retail sales are at corresponding record levels, reaching about $5.3 billion in 1999 expected to rise steadily through the decade.